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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/25/22 at 7:07 pm to WeeWee
Posted on 5/25/22 at 7:07 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Those 200,000 began being deployed a few weeks ago, and are now being used to reinforce and replace exhausted and fought out units. The other 300,000 are reservists who had not seen combat and not only had to go through bootcamp but also other schools to get ready for war. They could be thrown in to the fight if needed in an emergency, but most will likely be combat ready in mid July or August. Per my friends in the UAF, their battle plan is to give ground and wear the Russian combat forces down and then launch a major counterattack in the summer when they received all the weapons from the west and have 750,000 soldiers ready for combat while Russia is on track with loses to have less than 150,000 ready for combat.
Thank you. Sounds like a tough grind for the home team. It worked in Kyiv, just sucked to lose what seems like a lot of men in the process this time. Haven’t seen much on loss counts lately, but the updates and advances in the last 2 days seem like they come with a decently high cost in men.
1
Posted on 5/25/22 at 7:21 pm to WeeWee
I hope the Western equipment isn't lost before it gets used.
Russia is going to make it a high priority to interdict the equipment before they are used and certainly once they reach the front.
Not to mention the loss of trained personnel..
Russia is going to make it a high priority to interdict the equipment before they are used and certainly once they reach the front.
Not to mention the loss of trained personnel..
Posted on 5/25/22 at 7:36 pm to WeeWee
quote:
but it looks like Russia is trying to secure as much of the Donbas as it can and force the Ukrainians to negotiate a peace before the Ukrainians are ready to launch their massive counterattack.
Hard for me to believe we see a cease fire before that counter attack. I assume the Ukrainians will give that a go and where things stand as winter rolls in will largely be where things stay.
In related news, Putin is raising Russian pensions and minimum wage by 10% to “combat inflation.” Throwing money at the population to buy their approval - turns out Russians are largely people with the same motivations as us westerners.
Posted on 5/25/22 at 7:42 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
Hard for me to believe we see a cease fire before that counter attack. I assume the Ukrainians will give that a go and where things stand as winter rolls in will largely be where things stay.
Russia is going to try and annex the areas it controls before that counterattack and threaten to use nukes on Ukraine if Ukraine doesn’t sign a ceasefire and negotiate peace. However, I expect Ukraine to call Putin’s bluff.
Posted on 5/25/22 at 8:44 pm to WeeWee
I guess I get the jets and tanks if we’ve reached the point of not really having any Migs and old russian tanks left under the thought of equal tech on both sides.
Can someone explain the Israeli position? I haven’t quite gotten it the entire time. Russia supported Assad whom Israel ran ops against numerous times during the war. Obviously we support Israel more than anyone else militarily, ask for their help in a small capacity relatively speaking, get turned down.
Posted on 5/25/22 at 9:28 pm to DabosDynasty
All in all it feels like a bad day for the Ukrainians.
Posted on 5/25/22 at 9:33 pm to DabosDynasty
It might be time for Israel to be threated to be cut off on weapons and money from the U.S.
Posted on 5/25/22 at 9:43 pm to notiger1997
quote:
It might be time for Israel to be threated to be cut off on weapons and money from the U.S.
Sorry, but this is a tired trope. We do give money to Israel, which I'm against. But to think they'd be up shite creek without our support is simply not true. We are in fact buying our Trophy APSs from Israel.
I spent two years working with the IDF, to include spending over a month's time in total in Israel. They don't need us. But they will most certainly accept our taxpayer dollars tossed their way by sympathetic members of Congress. It would be rather stupid not to.
Posted on 5/25/22 at 9:44 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
kraine Conflict by Chromdome35
All in all it feels like a bad day for the Ukrainians.
Let’s hope it fief good become a bad week leading into a bad month.
Posted on 5/25/22 at 10:07 pm to Centinel
quote:
They don't need us. But they will most certainly accept our taxpayer dollars tossed their way by sympathetic members of Congress. It would be rather stupid not to.
Which you’d think a good ally would return the favor in kind, particularly on something as simple as granting rights to sell equipment they didn’t pay to produce, just supplied the design well before the war started.
Posted on 5/25/22 at 10:37 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
I guess I get the jets and tanks if we’ve reached the point of not really having any Migs and old russian tanks left under the thought of equal tech on both sides.
NATO has pretty much stripped its eastern countries of their Soviet era equipment. Last I heard, Ukraine was trying to increase its tank reserves just in case this war drags out for years, and would take any tanks it could get from the west. It accepted 50 German Leopard 1 tanks last week and there was talk on twitter about them trying to get M60 Patton tanks from Turkey. Some NATO members (France and Germany) have decided that is not a good idea because not only do they want to avoiding pissing off Russia anymore, but they don’t want to Turkey to have less tanks. Turkey would then be forced to buy more tanks from either the USA or South Korea. They won’t remove their arms embargo and sell weapons to Turkey though. They also want any country that gives fighters to Ukraine to have an open bidding process for fighters and have the fighters replaced with an equal amount of Eurofighters and Rafales instead of just bringing F-16s out of storage to replace them. Plus Russia threatened to cut Germany’s gas.
quote:
Can someone explain the Israeli position? I haven’t quite gotten it the entire time. Russia supported Assad whom Israel ran ops against numerous times during the war. Obviously we support Israel more than anyone else militarily, ask for their help in a small capacity relatively speaking, get turned down.
The Israeli PM is one of the few leaders who is on good terms with Putin and Zelinski. His governing coalition has pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian MPs in it. That coalition is also about to fall apart. So it’s probably just Israeli internal politics behind it.
Posted on 5/25/22 at 10:47 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
All in all it feels like a bad day for the Ukrainians
No it was not a good day. The Russians were due for a good day. However, y’all have not noticed that Russia is struggling and have redefined their end game again. Over the last week the narrative has gone from securing the rest of the Donbas to securing the Luhansk oblast. They have completely given up capturing the other 40% of the Donetsk oblast and that is why the Donetsk separatist were so pissed in those videos I posted yesterday.
Posted on 5/25/22 at 10:48 pm to WeeWee
Couple of other things.
They also don't want Russia to make trouble for them in Syria. As of now the Russian air defense network stands down when Israeli jets are overhead.
There are still a lot of Jews in Russia who could potentially be at risk of pogroms if relations turned sour.
And there are a lot of Russian Jews in Israel who unaccountably still have fond feelings for the homeland that treated them like shite.
They also don't want Russia to make trouble for them in Syria. As of now the Russian air defense network stands down when Israeli jets are overhead.
There are still a lot of Jews in Russia who could potentially be at risk of pogroms if relations turned sour.
And there are a lot of Russian Jews in Israel who unaccountably still have fond feelings for the homeland that treated them like shite.
Posted on 5/25/22 at 11:13 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
Haven’t seen much on loss counts lately, but the updates and advances in the last 2 days seem like they come with a decently high cost in men.
I just finished speaking to one of my sauce(s) in Ukraine. Per my sauce(s) in Ukraine. It’s been a hell of a fight in Lyman. Russia is slowly taking the town by resorting to the old Soviet tactic of launching human wave attacks just to gain a block or two of real estate. My sauce(s) estimated that Russia has suffered around 5,000 KIA in the Battle of Lyman this week. Ukraine has suffered roughly 1500 KIA this week. My sauce(s) were not sure of the loses in the Popasna breakout, said they were much less than Lyman. According to my sauce(s) Lyman is already very bloody and it’s going to get worse. Perhaps bloodier than Mariupol or Holostomel airport.
However, it’s nothings like what they Ukrainians have prepared for the Russians in Severodonetsk. My sauce(s) in Ukraine straight up said that they didn’t really care if lose the city. Their goal is to hold Russia up for two weeks and inflict a minimum of 15,000 Russians KIA. If they can do that then they believe they will have exhausted the Russian combat reserves.
Meanwhile the Ukrainians are resting, regrouping, rearming, and reorganizing for a big counterattack in a direction that nobody here has talked about. Obviously, my sauce(s) didn’t tell me what it was, but I jokingly asked if Ukraine was going send a few hundred thousand troops into Russia. My sauce(s) laughed and said no. However the Ukrainians do have a plan to invade Russia and take Belgorod. The plan is still on the table, but they learned from Russia’s mistake. If the Ukrainians invade Russia the plan calls for at least 500,000 troops.
This post was edited on 5/25/22 at 11:39 pm
Posted on 5/26/22 at 12:23 am to DabosDynasty
quote:
Which you’d think a good ally would return the favor in kind, particularly on something as simple as granting rights to sell equipment they didn’t pay to produce, just supplied the design well before the war started.
Think they have some dealings with the Russians in Syria so they don't want to upset either the US or Russia
Posted on 5/26/22 at 12:31 am to WeeWee
quote:
The plan is still on the table, but they learned from Russia’s mistake. If the Ukrainians invade Russia the plan calls for at least 500,000 troops.
As someone strongly rooting for Ukraine, doing this would be a disaster for Ukraine on so many different fronts.
Posted on 5/26/22 at 1:18 am to ned nederlander
Posted on 5/26/22 at 3:10 am to Chromdome35
ISW May 25th update
quote:
Key Takeaways
Russian forces prioritized advances east and west of Popasna in order to cut Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) southwest of Severodonetsk and complete encirclement efforts in Luhansk Oblast.
Russian forces have likely entered Lyman and may use this foothold to coordinate with advances southeast of Izyum to launch an offensive on Siversk.
Russian forces may start the Battle of Severodonetsk prior to completely cutting off Ukrainian GLOCs southwest and northwest of Severodonetsk.
Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia City in an attempt to disrupt a key logistics hub for Ukrainian forces operating in the east.
quote:
Immediate items to watch
Russian forces are likely reinforcing their grouping north of Kharkiv City to prevent further advances of the Ukrainian counteroffensive towards the Russian border.
Russan forces may commit elements of the 1st Tank Army to Northern Kharkiv in the near future.
Russian forces are prioritizing cutting off two major highways to Severodonetsk but may start to storm the city before they successfully cut GLOCs.
Occupation forces in Mariupol will continue to strengthen administrative control of the city but are likely unsure as to what the ultimate annexation policy will be.
Russian forces are likely preparing for Ukrainian counteroffensives and settling in for protracted operations in Southern Ukraine.
Posted on 5/26/22 at 7:09 am to WeeWee
Thanks for your posts...
Just curious, were you in contact your sauce(s) prior to the invasion when Ukraine was saying Russia wouldn't invade while the US was saying they would?
I just thought it was interesting that Ukraine intel apparently missed that (at least publicly).
Hoping their performance has improved since then... esp since alot of what they say is repeated in the West as truth
Just curious, were you in contact your sauce(s) prior to the invasion when Ukraine was saying Russia wouldn't invade while the US was saying they would?
I just thought it was interesting that Ukraine intel apparently missed that (at least publicly).
Hoping their performance has improved since then... esp since alot of what they say is repeated in the West as truth
Posted on 5/26/22 at 7:25 am to WeeWee
South: invader carries out three raids with Mi-8 helicopters
Russian forces are continuing to conduct aerial reconnaissance to identify Ukrainian positions and countermeasures along the coastline of the Odesa and Mykolaiv regions.
originally published by Ukrayinska Pravda
Yahoo News
Russian forces are continuing to conduct aerial reconnaissance to identify Ukrainian positions and countermeasures along the coastline of the Odesa and Mykolaiv regions.
originally published by Ukrayinska Pravda
Yahoo News
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