re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The prevailing wind blows to Russia or Belorussia if in the West. If Putin approves even tactical nukes, fallout will be over Russian soil

The former Warsaw Pact nations have been trying to sell their Soviet Era weapons to 3rd world and replenish with more modern but no takers. This is especially true with Poland which now has ordered M1A Abrams to replace those donated T-72's. The donation of its old BMP's is after making its own personnel carriers.

Then again, Russia is calling up its T-62's which its reservists use for training.

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I just finished speaking to one of my sauce(s) in Ukraine. Per my sauce(s) in Ukraine. It’s been a hell of a fight in Lyman. Russia is slowly taking the town by resorting to the old Soviet tactic of launching human wave attacks just to gain a block or two of real estate. My sauce(s) estimated that Russia has suffered around 5,000 KIA in the Battle of Lyman this week. Ukraine has suffered roughly 1500 KIA this week. My sauce(s) were not sure of the loses in the Popasna breakout, said they were much less than Lyman. According to my sauce(s) Lyman is already very bloody and it’s going to get worse. Perhaps bloodier than Mariupol or Holostomel airport.

However, it’s nothings like what they Ukrainians have prepared for the Russians in Severodonetsk. My sauce(s) in Ukraine straight up said that they didn’t really care if lose the city. Their goal is to hold Russia up for two weeks and inflict a minimum of 15,000 Russians KIA. If they can do that then they believe they will have exhausted the Russian combat reserves.

Meanwhile the Ukrainians are resting, regrouping, rearming, and reorganizing for a big counterattack in a direction that nobody here has talked about. Obviously, my sauce(s) didn’t tell me what it was, but I jokingly asked if Ukraine was going send a few hundred thousand troops into Russia. My sauce(s) laughed and said no. However the Ukrainians do have a plan to invade Russia and take Belgorod. The plan is still on the table, but they learned from Russia’s mistake. If the Ukrainians invade Russia the plan calls for at least 500,000 troops .

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However the Ukrainians do have a plan to invade Russia and take Belgorod. The plan is still on the table, but they learned from Russia’s mistake. If the Ukrainians invade Russia the plan calls for at least 500,000 troops .

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I hope they fricking do it

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Not all nukes carry the fallout risk. Just depends on the device.

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Why are you guys discussing nukes?

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Just curious, were you in contact your sauce(s) prior to the invasion when Ukraine was saying Russia wouldn't invade while the US was saying they would? I just thought it was interesting that Ukraine intel apparently missed that (at least publicly).

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Per my sauce(s), the intelligence people in Ukraine thought it was possible but they were not certain. The political leadership told them to down play the threat of invasion to keep the people from panicking. However, at the same time they started a limited mobilization of reserves and started training civilians to form the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force. So I would say that it was more of the political leadership downplaying the risk than the intelligence people missing it.

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Hoping their performance has improved since then... esp since alot of what they say is repeated in the West as truth

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All these generals are not just accidentally being killed. The Ukrainian spetsnaz have a kill list provided by Ukrainian intelligence and they are killing multiple generals per week. So I would say that their performance has improved or atleast the political leaders have allowed the gloves to be taken off.

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atleast the political leaders have allowed the gloves to be taken off.

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The gloves were on?

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The gloves were on?

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The gloves were on until Putin recognized the LPR and DPR. Russia’s top military leaders visited the separatist regions in late January and Ukrainian intelligence had their itinerary. Zelenski would not approve a Spetznaz mission to kill them at that time.

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Russian forces are continuing to conduct aerial reconnaissance to identify Ukrainian positions and countermeasures along the coastline of the Odesa and Mykolaiv regions. originally published by Ukrayinska Pravda

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It’s a terrible time of year to try and invade the Mykolaiv or Odessa oblasts. That area of the country is very similar to south Louisiana and south Texas. The area is very marshy and it would suck armor up like the fields around Kyiv and Kharkiv did. The best time to attack Odessa is in the late summer or fall since that part of the country doesn’t experience much of a fall Rasputitsa.

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I spent two years working with the IDF, to include spending over a month's time in total in Israel. They don't need us

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I wish that went into their FP, where their whole ME project literally requires US troops in order to succeed. The IDF is built for defensive campaigns. But Likud and others on the Israeli right want something which they aren't willing to risk Israeli lives for, which are several buffer states in order to retain strategic depth. They have hemmed themselves in to idiotic foreign policy maneuvers, much like the KSA has.

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The best time to attack Odessa is in the late summer or fall

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If the Ukrainians don’t have the weapons to make such an attack be a suicide mission for any Russians ships and aircraft that approach the entire western world should hang its head in shame.