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re: I think people need to accept that the housing window has closed
Posted on 7/31/26 at 12:01 pm to Odysseus32
Posted on 7/31/26 at 12:01 pm to Odysseus32
I think housing is one of those topics where all of our takes (mine included) are all “somewhat correct”.
According to Google:
Median home price 1996 vs 2026: $140K versus $410K
Median Household Income 1996 vs 2026: $35K versus $86K
Home price rate of growth (CAGR) is 3.65% vs 2.99% for household income. That doesn’t seem like a huge difference but apply those rates over 30 years and the result is that housing costs are now a comparatively larger portion of people’s budgets than they were a generation ago.
Having said that, owning a home making $85K is obviously doable. For one, median income doesn’t mean “go buy a median priced house (you almost definitely shouldn’t)”. And second, as a two-income family, that’s basically two adults working full time earning $20-$25 an hour. It takes some discipline, patience and a little compromise, but the young adults who figure this out are going to be fine and enjoy the benefits of homeownership.
According to Google:
Median home price 1996 vs 2026: $140K versus $410K
Median Household Income 1996 vs 2026: $35K versus $86K
Home price rate of growth (CAGR) is 3.65% vs 2.99% for household income. That doesn’t seem like a huge difference but apply those rates over 30 years and the result is that housing costs are now a comparatively larger portion of people’s budgets than they were a generation ago.
Having said that, owning a home making $85K is obviously doable. For one, median income doesn’t mean “go buy a median priced house (you almost definitely shouldn’t)”. And second, as a two-income family, that’s basically two adults working full time earning $20-$25 an hour. It takes some discipline, patience and a little compromise, but the young adults who figure this out are going to be fine and enjoy the benefits of homeownership.
0
Posted on 7/31/26 at 12:02 pm to The Baker
quote:
Mine was 320k in 2024
Daycare is $1800 a month per child
Student loans are another $1000 a month
$2,200 mortgage payment + $1800 daycare + $1000 student loans.
You're out $5k before the other bills even kick in.
Damn, I don't know how you younger generations do it.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 12:04 pm to Odysseus32
quote:
make 70k in 2025, your wife will either have to work, you will be a perpetual renter, or you will buy in a shitty area in most major metros
Oh no, you can't immediately move into the wealthy area you want and buy a huge house!!
Seriously, every metro has "affordable" housing in decent areas to those with middle class income.
New Orleans means you have to live 15 minutes away in Chalmette but you can get an amazing starter for 175k or less
This post was edited on 7/31/26 at 12:06 pm
Posted on 7/31/26 at 12:05 pm to UptownJoeBrown
quote:
Houses twice as big with amenities only very rich people had back in the day. No one wants to sacrifice today for a better tomorrow. It’s now now now. Well guess what? That leads you into being poor poor poor.
While I agree people spend like drunken sailors, housing is probably the one thing that doesn't really apply most of the time. I personally don't know anyone in even my extended friend or family group that is buying above their income.
Part of the issue is there's no such thing as a "starter" home anymore. Decent new build starter homes in Baton Rouge run at least 300k, more likely closer to 350k. Then the limited stock of old "starter" homes get scooped up as income-generating rentals or by people who can't afford the 300-350k new build.
Plus the obvious fact that the 2-3% mortgages aren't moving to a bigger house at 7%.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 12:05 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
every metro has "affordable" housing in decent areas to those with middle class income.
what an ignorant statement.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 12:07 pm to deeprig9
quote:
Anyhow, while we schooled up and careered up and saved up, we could finally buy a nice suburban house in 2017. In our late 30's.
How much did you buy it for in 2017, and what is your best guess of what it's worth today? I'm willing to bet that it's worth significantly more than what it was worth in 2017, even when adjusted for inflation. Even with an extra decade of wear and tear. That's the big disconnect.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 12:08 pm to Odysseus32
quote:
you will buy in a shitty area in most major metros.
Do this and move on up. Start this process before children.
We did this in an expensive metro and it worked.
My goal is to one day have enough property that my kids, if they so choose, can build on my land. shite, maybe one day I'll build something smaller and give one of them the "main house".
That's the dream.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 12:08 pm to The Pirate King
quote:
what an ignorant statement
It is amazingly true. You will have to sacrifice and commute to pull it off but that is the truth.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 12:09 pm to Odysseus32
It’s following the same path as a college education. It used to be you could swing it yourself or with parents help, then it took loans. Now, even with loans, it’s untenable for many, even if they don’t realize it yet.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 12:09 pm to boxcarbarney
quote:
The simple way is to become a citizen of India, apply for an H1B Visa, then get handed a practically free house at the expense of American Citizens.
Or move to India where they're sending all the jobs and the cost of living is still low.
As a bonus you can walk across the street and beat up the crappy tech support people. (I stole that joke from a guy from India who used to post on Hail Reagan's board.)
Posted on 7/31/26 at 12:10 pm to Weekend Warrior79
quote:
They want the nice 3-4 beds, 2+ baths
As far as houses go, that is all that has been built since the 60s. Starting with 1960s 3/2 ranches to pre-2008 mcmansions
Posted on 7/31/26 at 12:11 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
New Orleans means you have to live 15 minutes away in Chalmette but you can get an amazing starter for 175k or less
Don't even have to go to Chalmette, they have some smaller houses around Metairie at that price point. But you'll probably get more house for your money in Chalmette.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 12:13 pm to Weekend Warrior79
quote:
Don't even have to go to Chalmette, they have some smaller houses around Metairie at that price point. But you'll probably get more house for your money in Chalmette.
Have you been to Chalmette in the past few years? It is basically an extension of the 9th ward at this point.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 12:13 pm to Shexter
quote:
Damn, I don't know how you younger generations do it.
Lots of cortisol and an early death probably.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 12:14 pm to The Pirate King
quote:
While I agree people spend like drunken sailors, housing is probably the one thing that doesn't really apply most of the time. I personally don't know anyone in even my extended friend or family group that is buying above their income.
Part of the issue is there's no such thing as a "starter" home anymore. Decent new build starter homes in Baton Rouge run at least 300k, more likely closer to 350k. Then the limited stock of old "starter" homes get scooped up as income-generating rentals or by people who can't afford the 300-350k new build.
Plus the obvious fact that the 2-3% mortgages aren't moving to a bigger house at 7%.
This. Going off the 28% rule and the median household income right now, the max house they could "afford" is a $300k house if you make the median income. That is with a 20% downpayment of 60,000, which let's be honest I don't see being realistic either for a family only making $83k per year gross with how things are right now. If we put 3% down for a first time buyer, the most the median household could afford right now for a first time buyer would be about a $230k house. Again, this is for the median household income.
There just isn't supply for that, let alone anyone making under the median. Not to mention that homes are just drastically more expensive than that. Yes, there are homes you can find. No, there is not near enough starter homes. And as you mentioned, the 2nd time home buyers aren't selling their starter homes because they can't afford to. Their starter home is becoming their permanent home.
This post was edited on 7/31/26 at 12:19 pm
Posted on 7/31/26 at 12:16 pm to touchdownjeebus
quote:
It’s following the same path as a college education. It used to be you could swing it yourself or with parents help, then it took loans. Now, even with loans, it’s untenable for many, even if they don’t realize it yet.
Unpopular opinion (maybe), but a large number of students these days have no business being in a 4-year university. If you must borrow 100% of your college tuition, you'd better have a great job at the end of the tunnel to graduate with that kind of debt.
For many, the much better play is to live at home, work full time, and knock out a bunch of cheap community college classes. Transfer after two years with an associate's degree in tow and a lot of money in the bank.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 12:17 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
You will have to sacrifice and commute to pull it off but that is the truth.
Wait, you said the metro has them. But you have to commute. Which is it?
Posted on 7/31/26 at 12:18 pm to HouseMom
quote:
For many, the much better play is to live at home, work full time, and knock out a bunch of cheap community college classes. Transfer after two years with an associate's degree in tow and a lot of money in the bank.
You’re basically describing what people used to do in order to buy a house. It’s the same path and people are making the same mistakes.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 12:19 pm to TIGERHOLD
Been several years. I knew Arabi was starting to go down, but figured back over by Palmisano was still holding on strong
Posted on 7/31/26 at 12:20 pm to Odysseus32
A main difference is the cost of living has increased. Back in 80’s you didn’t need mobile phones, wireless internet access, much higher insurance premiums in all facets, auto and property.
The idea that everyone needs to settle and eat shite is pretty absurd. A newly married couple making 80-100k combined maybe 15 years ago could afford a starter home without issue. Now the “starter home” is averaging $400k. So now that couple needs to be making 200k to afford that.
Forget having kids, they’re way too expensive unless one parent can stay home or there are able and willing grandparents around.
Times have changed. Costs have sky rocketed mostly so to complete and utter greed.
People used to have pride in their jobs. You could support a family of 4 by being the manager of the tire department at Sears. And the man that held that job had pride in his company and his place. That’s completely unachievable nwo
The idea that everyone needs to settle and eat shite is pretty absurd. A newly married couple making 80-100k combined maybe 15 years ago could afford a starter home without issue. Now the “starter home” is averaging $400k. So now that couple needs to be making 200k to afford that.
Forget having kids, they’re way too expensive unless one parent can stay home or there are able and willing grandparents around.
Times have changed. Costs have sky rocketed mostly so to complete and utter greed.
People used to have pride in their jobs. You could support a family of 4 by being the manager of the tire department at Sears. And the man that held that job had pride in his company and his place. That’s completely unachievable nwo
This post was edited on 7/31/26 at 1:07 pm
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