re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Thread

NWS Tallahassee put some very ominous wording in their Forecast Discussion this morning, discussing the Big Bend area:

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You need to complete your preparations today if you live in the Florida big bend. To put this system into the historical context, there are NO major hurricanes in the historical dataset going back to 1851 that have tracked into Apalachee Bay. None. Don`t mess around with this. Follow the advice of your local emergency management.

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Here is a summary of the impacts we expect from Idalia.

Storm Surge:

Storm surge is expected to be life-threatening with potentially devastating impacts across portions of the coastal Florida big bend. Current storm surge forecasts are anticipating greater than 9 feet of surge along coastal Taylor and Dixie counties, up to 9 feet along coastal Wakulla and Jefferson county, and between 3 to 5 feet along coastal Franklin county. Widespread deep inundation with storm surge flooding will be greatly accentuated by powerful battering waves. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period of time. Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads may be washed out or severely flooded.

Wind:

Winds are expected to be life-threatening for counties within the Florida Big Bend with potentially devastating impacts near where the center tracks. These conditions could lead to structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures, along with complete damage to mobile homes. Damage will be greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for several weeks or months. Although wind speed generally decreases the further inland a storm gets due to surface friction, hurricane force and high-end tropical storm wind speeds are expected to persist well inland.

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They all seem to be in agreement that Idalia strengthens all the way up to landfall.

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Yikes, those models are cat. 4 based on pressure. Maybe 135-140 MPH winds.

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If it made it through Michael I think it will probably survive this. If you needed someone to check on it after let me know

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True, and not making light out of anyone else's situation on the big bend. We're on the north side of the cape near Longbills. They also just built up the dunes again, but this could be bad for the south end as it is already steadily washing away before the rocks.

So, an Alligator Point landfall?

How heavily populated is the area this thing is heading? Other than Tallahassee which is a bit further inland don’t know much about that area.

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If you guys evacuate clean out your freezers before you leave.

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And if you don't and you are without power for more than a week by the time you return, just tape the damn thing up and take it to the road. Worst smells that you can imagine opening up one of those fckers with rotting seafood/meat.

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How heavily populated is the area this thing is heading? Other than Tallahassee which is a bit further inland don’t know much about that area.

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There’s a lot of swampy and marsh areas through the Big Bend until you get down to Clearwater, but there are still several coastal towns/villages near the water in those areas. Obviously population increases as you move inland along that heading.

My Katrina chest freezer full of fish and deer and everything else still haunts me.

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then you have the dumbasses in places like Key West where you're shamed if you leave

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Irma cured most of them of that. They interviewed a bunch of raggedy baws, that looked like they got TFBOOT. They all said "Never again!"