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Posted on 8/25/23 at 6:20 pm to ThePoo
frick Isaac. That storm dumped a shitload of rain. Up to that point it was the most flooding I ever saw until 2016 happened.
Posted on 8/25/23 at 7:45 pm to rds dc
quote:
Also, the 12z Euro leaves some energy in the Western Gulf and then lifts it northward as maybe a depression. Brings decent rains to Louisiana.
Talk about a decent solution all around. Tampa, which needs the rain, would get some, and Louisiana would still have a chance to get in on the action without a huge ceiling to it.
This post was edited on 8/25/23 at 7:45 pm
Posted on 8/25/23 at 8:20 pm to rds dc
First full set of model runs. It will be a long 4 or 5 days of waiting for Florida as of now.
Posted on 8/25/23 at 8:53 pm to NorthEndZone
Does this indicate the NHC has located the center low?
Posted on 8/25/23 at 8:59 pm to LPLGTiger
HWRF doing HWRF things blowing it up to a Cat 3 into Tampa
This post was edited on 8/25/23 at 9:15 pm
Posted on 8/25/23 at 9:07 pm to LPLGTiger
quote:
Does this indicate the NHC has located the center low?
As of now, it is the NHC's best estimate of the center of a broad surface circulation.
Posted on 8/25/23 at 9:15 pm to NorthEndZone
Thanks. I have family just west of Panama City.
Posted on 8/25/23 at 9:36 pm to NorthEndZone
Where the LLC originates will play a huge factor here on the track
Posted on 8/25/23 at 9:47 pm to bayou2
quote:
Gert is still out there
It hasn't moved much in days
That's the one I'm watching
GERT = / = ALLIGATOR BLOOD
... hanging around, hanging around
kidz got alligator blood
can't get rid of 'im ...
(Rounders)
Posted on 8/25/23 at 9:49 pm to lsuman25
quote:
HWRF doing HWRF things blowing it up to a Cat 3 into Tampa
Thats the sort of thing that gets my attention.
Catches a nice northerly outflow channel thanks to position near upper trough coming into the northern Gulf.
Gonna depend on exact positioning but thats a reasonable outcome I think, though depending on how fast it forms and again exact position.
Posted on 8/25/23 at 9:52 pm to Duke
How hot is the Gulf? Enough for it to strengthen fast, or will it just be a relatively minor storm?
Posted on 8/25/23 at 10:02 pm to Duke
You aren’t making me feel better, Duke.
Posted on 8/25/23 at 10:08 pm to PassingThrough
quote:
How hot is the Gulf?
Even if it wasnt as hot as we've seen on record, its late August and more than good enough.
quote:
You aren’t making me feel better, Duke.
Position matters ALOT.
Could easily get a hit of shear instead of get enhanced by position relative to trough. Hell, even its position on the HWRF looks a little sheary.
HWRF just gave a reasonable depiction of if things were to line up "right" for the storm.
This post was edited on 8/25/23 at 10:12 pm
Posted on 8/25/23 at 10:26 pm to lsuman25
HWRF historically is on the strong side of forecast when it comes to intensity
Posted on 8/25/23 at 10:54 pm to SWLA92
It's nowhere near as bad as it was in the past. Use to be the meme model with 890mb hurricanes getting the nickname the doomsday model.
The doomcanes it use to spin up in the gulf were hilarious. You'd think it was a sci-fi movie like Interstellar where they were on another world with hurricanes.
The doomcanes it use to spin up in the gulf were hilarious. You'd think it was a sci-fi movie like Interstellar where they were on another world with hurricanes.
Posted on 8/25/23 at 10:57 pm to deuce985
It actually was the first to show Laura bombing out right before landfall but I guess even a broken clock is right twice a day lol
Posted on 8/25/23 at 11:49 pm to SWLA92
Posted on 8/25/23 at 11:59 pm to trussthetruzz
Thread gonna take off now
Posted on 8/26/23 at 12:45 am to trussthetruzz
quote:
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