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re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Thread

Posted on 8/18/23 at 12:08 pm to
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61722 posts
Posted on 8/18/23 at 12:08 pm to
quote:

Too much dry air and wind sheer in place.


We aren’t even in the peak of the season yet.
This post was edited on 8/18/23 at 3:34 pm
Posted by Sal Minio
17th Street Canal
Member since Sep 2006
4486 posts
Posted on 8/18/23 at 12:10 pm to
quote:

expecting 682 mph winds at landfall. Buckle up


Approaching Mach 1
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75019 posts
Posted on 8/18/23 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

oh I read the whole post where you contradict yourself. So was it a bust or not ???

If you're talking about the forecasts for an above average season, even a hyperactive season by some, then yes......last season's forecast was a bust. There is no way it wasn't a bust. One storm, no matter how powerful or where it hits, doesn't make a forecast of how active a season will be an accurate one.
Posted by trussthetruzz
Member since Sep 2020
9339 posts
Posted on 8/18/23 at 12:19 pm to
Posted by redneck
Los Suenos, Costa Rica
Member since Dec 2003
54180 posts
Posted on 8/18/23 at 1:07 pm to
quote:

last season's forecast was a bust. There is no way it wasn't a bust


3RD costliest hurricane season in US HISTORY was a bust? interesting
Posted by DhanTigers212
Member since Dec 2014
10469 posts
Posted on 8/18/23 at 1:09 pm to


This model run can go straight to hell.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42548 posts
Posted on 8/18/23 at 1:09 pm to
quote:

3RD costliest hurricane season in US HISTORY was a bust? interesting


You don’t measure a season based on dollars and cents or even deaths.
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
82193 posts
Posted on 8/18/23 at 1:30 pm to
This dude just tripled down on exposing just how stupid he is. This is amazing
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75019 posts
Posted on 8/18/23 at 1:38 pm to
quote:

3RD costliest hurricane season in US HISTORY was a bust? interesting

Yes, the forecast for that season was 100%, undeniably a bust.
Posted by purple18
Lafayette
Member since Aug 2009
1772 posts
Posted on 8/18/23 at 1:40 pm to
quote:

This dude just tripled down on exposing just how stupid he is. This is amazing


He's Correct

If NOAA predicts 20 named storms with 9 Hurricanes and 4 Major in 2022 but in the end the actual results or less than half of what was predicted but one storm does hit the US, you considered that an above average season? lol
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75019 posts
Posted on 8/18/23 at 1:41 pm to
He's talking about Tarzana tripling down on being an idiot.
Posted by redneck
Los Suenos, Costa Rica
Member since Dec 2003
54180 posts
Posted on 8/18/23 at 1:42 pm to
quote:

Yes, the forecast for that season was 100%, undeniably a bust.


He didn't say the forecast was a bust, he said the season was a bust:

quote:

This hurricane season will be a bust just like last year
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
15724 posts
Posted on 8/18/23 at 1:44 pm to
ima just put this right here

Posted by Nitrogen
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Aug 2016
9594 posts
Posted on 8/18/23 at 1:56 pm to
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61722 posts
Posted on 8/18/23 at 1:59 pm to


Sick of this crap.
Posted by OU Guy
Member since Feb 2022
29452 posts
Posted on 8/18/23 at 2:00 pm to
Precip next 7 days

Posted by Nitrogen
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Aug 2016
9594 posts
Posted on 8/18/23 at 2:08 pm to
The big arse dry circle
What did the south do man
Posted by Thracken13
Aft Cargo Hold of Serenity
Member since Feb 2010
18837 posts
Posted on 8/18/23 at 2:10 pm to
quote:

3RD costliest hurricane season in US HISTORY was a bust? interesting


now you are shifting the goalpost to make your argument seem right.

forecasts being considered a Bust doesn't equal damage costs being a "bust - they are not hand in hand, the are mutually exclusive of each other.

you can have 1 Hurricane form in a year that was forecast to have 15 storms, but if that 1 storm is a Cat 5 and hits south Florida and either drags across the state or stalls, then the amount of damage/cost will be catastrophic - but the forecast would, by technicality, be a bust
Posted by Cajunhawk81
Member since Jan 2021
2511 posts
Posted on 8/18/23 at 2:11 pm to
I pray to the Great Magnet for clemency from the Heat Dome of Death.
Posted by Dire Wolf
bawcomville
Member since Sep 2008
40292 posts
Posted on 8/18/23 at 2:15 pm to
quote:

My bad... I misread the NOAA Climate 6-10 Day Outlook Color Chart-- it should be 80-90% above normal, for the areas colored dark maroon/brownish: all of LA, East Texas, most of Oklahoma and Arkansas, and parts of Miss, Ala, GA and FL.

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