re: Hurricane Milton - The Cleanup Begins...

For the water to be pushed out it would be the time that the hurricane winds blow from the north to north east. In NOLA a strong northern wind would drop the level at our marina by four feet in maybe 24 hours. Not 'that' strong a wind, and when the winds died down, the water moved back.

From recent Tampa misadventures, national news picked up on the guy who went for a walk on the mud and had to be pulled out because he sank.
The dredged channel in Tampa Bay is or at least used to be well marked, and you don't take a boat with any keep depth out of that depression.

Don't forget to bring an axe with you.

Where are you? Sorry i know you probably already said that

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Seems to be trending south quite a bit.

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I don't have any skin in this game, but I am worried for all of the wait-and-see'ers in Tampa that the most recent models and comments may convince many In Tampa they are in the clear, when they may not be.

The HAFS hurricane models have been about as accurate with this storm as they could be. The intensity claims that everyone originally laughed at while this was just a tropical storm, they verified. Some were over, some were under, but the global models haven't even been in the right neighborhood.

HAFS A&B have consistently pointed at Tampa Bay - for a couple of days across all runs. There have been numerous time shifts & intensity changes, but a bullseye has been pointed at the bay.

The most recent runs do show a very slight southern shift, to the southern tip of the Bay.

Meanwhile, the storm is actually tracking ~10 miles or so to the West of the expected position at current times (as best I can tell).

I love the Tampa/Clearwater area and I'm hoping for the best for them, and praying for the safety of all.... I just hope people aren't making life safety decisions on some models that bounce all around with every run.

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This guy is alluding to that too

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HAFS A&B have consistently pointed at Tampa Bay

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And so do HMON, HWRF & ECMWF in their latest runs.

Typically I would say Sanibel / Captiva is crap don’t go so I can selfishly keep it to myself however I think they are going to need some tourist dollars to help rebuild.

Bubble Room Orange cake GOAT

The spaghetti tracks have been off from the deterministic models runs all season. It’s been like that for every single storm. Why there’s been “shifts” from the NHC track close to landfall, the deterministic runs have won every time so far. It was noticeable during Beryl, Francine, and Helene. NHC uses the plots.

Based on past history this season I would lean on the model runs until proven otherwise.

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We're in Charlotte County and riding it out boys.


frick YOU MILTONS!!

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Same here, bud. Leaving my house in Punta Gorda, though. It's just a mile from the harbor:(

Staying at a buddy's house where we rode Ian out.

Yes, quite a few changes! I noticed shaving has become a good thing.