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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:40 pm to Funky Tide 8
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:40 pm to Funky Tide 8
I hope that there are no Burger King restaurants on Antigua because they are about to get a double whopper.
1
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:41 pm to Jake88
He made that prediction quite some time ago and he seems hopeful that his prediction will be correct rather than see millions spared.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:41 pm to Jake88
quote:
Why are you wish casting this thing to the Florida panhandle?
Hahaha... Right?
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:41 pm to Jake88
He's not wish casting. Like a lot of people here he's stating that a 90* turn.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:41 pm to loogaroo
quote:
Yes do they have a backup site?
Used to, not sure it's still active. CajunWX can let us know if we need to switch to it I'm sure.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:42 pm to weadjust
that guy throwing the umbrella 
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:42 pm to slackster
quote:quote:
Video from eye wall and breaking thru to eye
That was awesome.
It was like they flew into the eye wall and it temporarily transported the plane to the 1950's... Then popped 'em back out in the clear blue eye sky.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:44 pm to Funky Tide 8
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:44 pm to HogX
quote:
Using the EF tornado scale, 200 MPH sustained winds is right at the borderline for an EF5.
The EF scale at times seems a bit confusing to me being a wind estimate based on various degrees of damage to various kinds of structures. It looks like it sort of incorporates the original wind speeds and estimated damages they were believed to be able to inflict. So if you compare a 185 mph Cat 5 hurricane scale damages with F-3/4 damages there are some correlations. It doesn't look like 200 MPH is far away with this unique record breaker. My point was that Irma is a big strong tornado like tropical cyclone with a much longer and wider damage path than any tornado IMHO. I hope steering will set up to take her out to sea but that is looking less and less likely. Scary.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:45 pm to yurintroubl
a message from supernovasky (who used to post here before oweo and cajunangelle ran him off)
A good piece of advice I was once given, is if you plan to evacuate, think about the earliest you'd want to evacuate and do it a day before. Right now, people are probably thinking about doing it tomorrow or Thursday. If I lived in Florida, I would have all my stuff packed right now, wait to see the next track update, and probably personally start driving to Macon as early as tomorrow morning, first thing in the morning.
The track is uncertain, so if you do not do this, you MAY be spared. But if you are not, you're going to potentially take the worst hurricane in Atlantic history to the face. Not even Orlando is safe, given that many tracks cut inward from the Tampa area. People evacuating to Orlando might end up getting the Northeast Eyewall, which is the worst part.
Obviously weigh this against your own obligations, due to the uncertainty of the track, and I am only giving what I would personally do, not telling anyone to do this yourselves. But some of these scenarios, very realistic ones as currently stand, leave many major population centers potentially unable to even be reached after the storm passes.
Keep in mind, if you don't evacuate by the time the government officials tell you to, and your shelter collapses, you may not be able to be rescued for at least 18 hours. That is the scary thing. Think about what happened in Rockport, and it was 130 mph there. This storm is much stronger.
There is some uncertainty in the track, but at this point it is likely that South Florida at BEST gets hurricane force winds, and at worst is uninhabitable for some time until infrastructure gets repaired.
Stay safe, all.
A good piece of advice I was once given, is if you plan to evacuate, think about the earliest you'd want to evacuate and do it a day before. Right now, people are probably thinking about doing it tomorrow or Thursday. If I lived in Florida, I would have all my stuff packed right now, wait to see the next track update, and probably personally start driving to Macon as early as tomorrow morning, first thing in the morning.
The track is uncertain, so if you do not do this, you MAY be spared. But if you are not, you're going to potentially take the worst hurricane in Atlantic history to the face. Not even Orlando is safe, given that many tracks cut inward from the Tampa area. People evacuating to Orlando might end up getting the Northeast Eyewall, which is the worst part.
Obviously weigh this against your own obligations, due to the uncertainty of the track, and I am only giving what I would personally do, not telling anyone to do this yourselves. But some of these scenarios, very realistic ones as currently stand, leave many major population centers potentially unable to even be reached after the storm passes.
Keep in mind, if you don't evacuate by the time the government officials tell you to, and your shelter collapses, you may not be able to be rescued for at least 18 hours. That is the scary thing. Think about what happened in Rockport, and it was 130 mph there. This storm is much stronger.
There is some uncertainty in the track, but at this point it is likely that South Florida at BEST gets hurricane force winds, and at worst is uninhabitable for some time until infrastructure gets repaired.
Stay safe, all.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:47 pm to UAinSOUTHAL
Awesome video. Thanks for posting it. 
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:48 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
Pretty sure that's just a wobble. It's not supposed to move northward for 5 more days
The turn that's occurred (from 270 to 280, i.e. a slight turn to the Northwest from due West), was supposed to happen today, and should gradually turn to ~300deg or so. The hard turn to the North is what is supposed to happen between 4-5 days out now (Hour 114 or so on the 12z GFS).
The good news is that that even that slight turn happening now is one of the things that needed to happen if this thing is to end up being a giant scary fish (in addition to putting some of the more populated islands toward the Southern and Southwest quadrants of the incoming storm and missing the eye entirely).
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:48 pm to rocket31
AF305 has just taken off to join the data party
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:48 pm to saint tiger225
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:50 pm to MottLaneKid
quote:
I hope that there are no Burger King restaurants on Antigua because they are about to get a double whopper.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:51 pm to lsuman25
919... wow
shite... worse... 916
shite... worse... 916
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 4:52 pm
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:51 pm to lsuman25
9 frickING 16?
That's not surface right?
That's not surface right?
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:51 pm to weagle99
just now: 916.4mb reading from recon #10. 
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:51 pm to lsuman25
916.4mb 
Posted on 9/5/17 at 4:52 pm to loogaroo
GFS trending east.
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