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re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:06 pm to Pettifogger
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:06 pm to Pettifogger
How does the insane strength of Irma affect it's willingness to get pushed around by the high pressure systems. I recall in the past that these monsters make their own paths because they simply overpower other steering forces.
2
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:07 pm to rds dc
quote:
Unless there is a significant change in the modeling today, the Panhandle seems like the western edge right now. As the trough, that is dragging the cold front through, moves off to the NE it kind of gets rolled and stretched by the ridges (red areas indicating H pressure). That process leaves a small weakness (blue circle) or area of cyclonic steering flow. It would be very hard for Irma to get west of that flow. The weakness would have to end up more north or retrograde off to the NW to open a more western route. It seems like shifts east or more likely than west. With that said, the models still struggle with this kind of a setup and shifts are likely over the next couple of days.
Trend on the GFS from 00z to 12z has been less progressive with the NE trough and to leave a little more energy behind farther south. Subtle changes that shift the track eastward once the turn is made.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:07 pm to rt3
The 1926 Hurricane that hit Miami was a Category 4 the storm surge covered all of Miami Beach with 10 feet of water.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:07 pm to Delacroix22
quote:
I'm calling landfall in Mobile.
Meet me at Sonic mother fricker, it's on now.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:07 pm to Costanza
quote:
How does the insane strength of Irma affect it's willingness to get pushed around by the high pressure systems. I recall in the past that these monsters make their own paths because they simply overpower other steering forces.
Explained previously, but not the way it works. "Hurricanes are betas when it comes to steering."
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:08 pm to OldSouth
quote:
Some of you really need to improve your reading comprehension.
I know what you're trying to say, but that long ago is not with the current updated trends....
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 1:09 pm
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:08 pm to Costanza
quote:
How does the insane strength of Irma affect it's willingness to get pushed around by the high pressure systems. I recall in the past that these monsters make their own paths because they simply overpower other steering forces.
if her pressure really goes sub 900 then she is the dominant atmospheric feature and will actually drive others with her movement.
its a dance.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:10 pm to rds dc
quote:
Trend on the GFS from 00z to 12z has been less progressive with the NE trough and to leave a little more energy behind farther south. Subtle changes that shift the track eastward once the turn is made.
What you're circling is the "energy" staying further south, pushing Irma more to the east (at least on the 12z), am i understanding that correctly?
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:10 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Obviously the models showing it going through FL is encouraging to everyone west of these, but living on the gulf coast, in prime hurricane season, knowing how quickly things can change you should always be on guard and not live or die by the models.
hey Medic any indication of this thing slowing down and missing that feature coming down that is suppose to make it bend north?
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:11 pm to Hangover Haven
quote:No, you apparently don't know what I'm saying. I was saying that the run from last Thursday is still consistent with the one from last night. Nevermind, I give up.
I know what you're trying to say, but that long ago is not with the current updated trends....
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:11 pm to rds dc
Run on the Euro appears to slow down a little and move to the south a little.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:12 pm to rds dc
That was informative, thanks for that rds.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:12 pm to Rox
Based on the longer than normal lines at the Carollton CostCo I don't think you're the only one.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:12 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
What you're circling is the "energy" staying further south, pushing Irma more to the east (at least on the 12z), am i understanding that correctly?
The energy erodes the high pressure over the Atlantic's edge, providing a gap between the highs (the red areas on the map he has in the quote) that is a little farther east and potentially orients that gap a little east as well.
It's a little feature with big consequences for millions of people.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:13 pm to Duke
Amazing agreement between GFS and Euro through 72 hours.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:13 pm to rocket31
quote:
pretty sweet live streaming dashboard of several locations in the virgin islands if anyone wants to follow
Man, it is beautiful down there.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:13 pm to NolaAg04
EF-4 Tornado is the type of winds we are talking about with Irma
This is just nuts
This is just nuts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:14 pm to Rakim
Fastest hurricane winds in the Atlantic is Hurricane Allen at 190 in 1980 and the lowest pressure is Hurricane Wilma at 882 in 2005.
To see where Irma will rank all time.
To see where Irma will rank all time.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 1:15 pm to OldSouth
quote:
g. I was saying that the run from last Thursday is still consistent with the one from last night
I think I'm the only one that got what you were trying to say.
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