re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

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When will outer bands start hitting the Orlando area?

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You're in Orlando?

The north turn prediction has been dependent on the trough being in place to pull Irma north. The models have not predicted with any accuracy the location of this trough which is why the turn north keeps moving westward. If this keeps up, and this trough is not in place to pull this storm north, the storm will simply keep drifting west or WNW and could impact the northern GOM. Wouldn't be the first time these models have missed by a long shot.

Sounds like Sat-Sun

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Probably going to be an annular hurricane

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Just means it's round and well defined, right? Doesn't mean it necessarily gets stronger, right?

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Anything going on to worry about with the little orange X in the Bay of Campeche?

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the same low everyone's hoping grabs Irma is keeping that low caged in down in the BoC

ETA: or a high that's supposed to build in over the SW & LA... something is keeping it caged

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Now that's the NAMs interpretation of this... so take it with a grain of salt.

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The NAM and earlier GFS are both showing the trough tucking tail and heading east/weakening, I'm hoping we get a different interpretation from the balloons over the Midwest and NE mainlands.

Do you know if they'll share that data with the public in any way or do we just have to look for clues in the GFS later?

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When will outer bands start hitting the Orlando area?

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Four days out-ish.

Through Saturday Morning here (NHC):

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I am not in Orlando

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Damn. Thought we could go get a beer.

Not necessarily breaking news, but the recon plane found 125 kt surface winds, which I believe was extrapolated. That's ~144 mph.

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Not necessarily breaking news, but the recon plane found 125 kt surface winds, which I believe was extrapolated. That's ~144 mph.

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Yep, latest VDM:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 3:18Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 2:59:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°39'N 55°47'W (16.65N 55.7833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 353 statute miles (569 km) to the NE (46°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,591m (8,501ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 126kts (~ 145.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (42°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 134° at 133kts (From the SE at ~ 153.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 943mb (27.85 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 133kts (~ 153.1mph) which was observed 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NE (43°) from the flight level center at 2:55:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 220° at 11kts (From the SW at 13mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NE (40°) from the flight level center