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Posted on 9/4/17 at 9:45 pm to slackster
So they're the hurricane version of Dorothy from Twister?
Posted on 9/4/17 at 9:45 pm to LSURussian
quote:
What does that mean exactly?
The area of low pressure that helps pull Irma north appears to be lifting out faster. Now that's the NAMs interpretation of this... so take it with a grain of salt.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 9:45 pm to Duke
Oh I figured it wasn't anyone trying to get it back but had no real clue.
You guys are a wealth of info.
You guys are a wealth of info.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 9:46 pm to slackster
What could tampa/st pete area experience?
Posted on 9/4/17 at 9:47 pm to rt3
quote:This is why I asked my question above. To me if the trough is moving east faster it seems like it would result in Irma turning N & NE sooner.
: if the trough is out of the area faster... that would mean the chances of Irma finding it is lessened
Posted on 9/4/17 at 9:50 pm to LSURussian
quote:
This is why I asked my question above. To me if the trough is moving east faster it seems like it would result in Irma turning N & NE sooner.
Disregarding any other changes, it could lift out fast enough that it can't capture Irma.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 9:50 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
What could tampa/st pete area experience?
If it enters the GOM, Tampa and St Pete would experience some wind and rain as well as storm surge. I wouldn't sleep on this storm.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 9:50 pm to rds dc
Dear Lord Haiti has been through enough. A local priest from here lives there and has a mission that has done wonderful things.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 9:50 pm to LSURussian
quote:
This is why I asked my question above. To me if the trough is moving east faster it seems like it would result in Irma turning N & NE sooner.
if Irma were to be there to latch onto it... then yes it would
but if Irma isn't latched on to it when it lifts out...
it's like missing the ferry and having to take a bridge 20 miles away to get to your final destination
Posted on 9/4/17 at 9:51 pm to SLafourche07
quote:
So they're the hurricane version of Dorothy from Twister?
That's a pretty good way to view it.
IIRC, they don't drop them continuously throughout the storm. The aircraft reports the flight-level data, and extrapolations can be made from that, but the actual dropsondes are released at particular points of interest.
I could be wrong on that.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 9:52 pm to LSURussian
quote:
To me if the trough is moving east faster it seems like it would result in Irma turning N & NE sooner.
Unless Irma isn't close enough yet to be affected by the trough? No idea what I'm talking about, but if the trough clears out sooner than originally anticipated then it might not pull Irma with it.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 9:52 pm to LSURussian
quote:
This is why I asked my question above. To me if the trough is moving east faster it seems like it would result in Irma turning N & NE sooner.
Or she'll be too far south and miss the opening. It's complicated Russian.
The better global computers will be running soon with the new Midwest data. Wait and see how it's translates.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 9:52 pm to slackster
quote:
but the actual dropsondes are released at particular points of interest.
I assume that's why the planes fly that "radiation symbol" type flight pattern through the storm
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 9:56 pm
Posted on 9/4/17 at 9:54 pm to saint tiger225
quote:
Damn, that radar pic from recon looks crazy. Just a "beautiful" looking storm. I know it's not good IRL, but as a storm, that thing is wrapped up nicely.
Probably going to be an annular hurricane
Posted on 9/4/17 at 9:55 pm to deltaland
Jose should be popping up in the next few days and will be right behind Irma per wafb.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 9:57 pm to iamAG
AF305 should get into the eyewall again shortly
Posted on 9/4/17 at 9:57 pm to rds dc
When will outer bands start hitting the Orlando area?
Posted on 9/4/17 at 9:58 pm to Duke
I know people like to give the models shite, but I find the Euro to be pretty impressive yet again. This is where it predicted Irma to be today, and it did so last Wednesday @ 1 PM.
This is where Irma was today:
That is pretty damn good example of why the 5-day or less forecast is pretty solid, but anything outside of that can be pretty shoddy.
This is where Irma was today:
That is pretty damn good example of why the 5-day or less forecast is pretty solid, but anything outside of that can be pretty shoddy.
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