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re: Hurricane Iota - No Más! No Más! - Gulf Finally Closed?
Posted on 11/6/20 at 4:46 am to Duke
Posted on 11/6/20 at 4:46 am to Duke
Gets a push NW into the Gulf and then kicked out by an approaching front is what the models are starting to really key in on. Keep an eye out still, but it does jive with climo at least and I'm happy riding that idea with the storm firmly in the 7 day range for a Gulf Coast impact. We'll watch to see how the pattern evolves over the coming days.
One upside to the time change, the models run an hour earlier. Euro done by midnight now. NHC updates now come at 3 am/pm and 9 am/pm too. Not typically something we have to worry about at this point in the year.
1
Posted on 11/6/20 at 4:49 am to Duke
So. how big of a storm we are looking at?
Posted on 11/6/20 at 4:59 am to fishfighter
Decent sized circulation with a decently tight core. Strong TS at this frame on the GFS, but you get the idea. Yellow colors show where there's cyclonic spin going on and darker colors are more spinny.
You can see the spin in the plains here too, and that will be the thing that kicks the storm back out to the NE and eventually absorb it as it gets inland.
Storm has already been a major disaster for Central America with all the rain it dropped.
Posted on 11/6/20 at 5:16 am to Duke
Any models predicting hurricane strength at final landfall?
This post was edited on 11/6/20 at 5:41 am
Posted on 11/6/20 at 6:19 am to SlidellCajun
Louisiana has had more than it's share of storms and Alabama is still hurting from Sally.
It is time for Florida to take this one.
It is time for Florida to take this one.
Posted on 11/6/20 at 7:35 am to Duke
quote:
You can see the spin in the plains here too, and that will be the thing that kicks the storm back out to the NE and eventually absorb it as it gets inland.
The big difference here vs. Zeta is the Western trough is broader and positively tilted. This results in hostile conditions across much of the Gulf, esp as the system starts to lift northward. Zets had a neutral to slightly negative cutoff moving across Texas producing favorable conditions across the northern Gulf as Zeta moved towards shore.
Posted on 11/6/20 at 8:09 am to rds dc
So using scientific terms you are telling me this will be nothingburger
Posted on 11/6/20 at 8:52 am to rds dc
Local wwl radio mentioning a strong cold front at the end of next week which could keep ETA off of the northern gulf coast.
Could be a problem for the Florida gulf coast though.
I’m just hoping that intensity is limited no matter where it ends up
Could be a problem for the Florida gulf coast though.
I’m just hoping that intensity is limited no matter where it ends up
Posted on 11/6/20 at 9:01 am to Cosmo
quote:For the N. Gulf coast, likely nothing significant, but S. Florida and some of the peninsula it might be a little bit more of a "somethingburger". Still not anything too severe from what I'm seeing and hearing. The main thing will be lots of rain in the peninsula and perhaps some gusty winds along the coastal sections of south east thru south west FL that can cause some minor damage. But flooding could be more of a serious issue there. If this goes to LA and cause trouble there I'd be shocked. But I guess anything is possible.
So using scientific terms you are telling me this will be nothingburger
This post was edited on 11/6/20 at 9:03 am
Posted on 11/6/20 at 9:04 am to rds dc
quote:
Cone Creeping into Gulf
This post was edited on 11/6/20 at 9:05 am
Posted on 11/6/20 at 9:15 am to OysterPoBoy
NWS Miami/South Florida
Posted on 11/6/20 at 9:41 am to fishfighter
quote:
So. how big of a storm we are looking at?
'bout tree-fiddy
Posted on 11/6/20 at 10:15 am to RetiredSaintsLsuFan
quote:
Louisiana has had more than it's share of storms and Alabama is still hurting from Sally.
It is time for Florida to take this one.
As a Spokesman for Florida I will gladly accept this. Only
because i'm on the Atlantic side of florida and not the Gulf side
Posted on 11/6/20 at 10:26 am to FLObserver
quote:
As a Spokesman for Florida I will gladly accept this. Only because i'm on the Atlantic side of florida and not the Gulf side
Posted on 11/6/20 at 11:51 am to FLObserver
quote:
As a Spokesman for Florida I will gladly accept this. Only
because i'm on the Atlantic side of florida and not the Gulf side
I wouldn't rule out a hurricane into the Miami area from the east.
Posted on 11/6/20 at 11:55 am to paperwasp
Yep. That's still an undulating cone.
This post was edited on 11/6/20 at 11:56 am
Posted on 11/6/20 at 12:55 pm to rds dc
Latest Euro has Eta going through the Keys and/or extreme south Florida with strongest winds over south and central Florida
Posted on 11/6/20 at 1:20 pm to Cosmo
Funny thing was Marco was the nothingburgers to end all nothingburgers but it paved the way for Laura to be the beast she is. It was a little ironic this year.
Posted on 11/6/20 at 1:21 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
Latest Euro has Eta going through the Keys and/or extreme south Florida with strongest winds over south and central Florida
Strong high nosing in over the system increasing the gradient on the northern side. Even if the system stays over the peninsula or slips into the Gulf there will be stiff onshore flow on the eastern shore.
Posted on 11/6/20 at 1:40 pm to rds dc
SELA shield reactivated?
Eta gonna YEET LA?
Eta gonna YEET LA?
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