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re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:19 pm to NYNolaguy1
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:19 pm to NYNolaguy1
I was thinking the same thing re Katrina vs Florence Storm Surge.
The Saffir-Simpson scale USED to predict what the storm surge would be too. Katrina and Ike blew the estimates for a Cat 2/Cat3 storm out of the water with their actual storm surges.
The Saffir-Simpson scale USED to predict what the storm surge would be too. Katrina and Ike blew the estimates for a Cat 2/Cat3 storm out of the water with their actual storm surges.
quote:
In 2009, the NHC made moves to eliminate pressure and storm surge ranges from the categories, transforming it into a pure wind scale, called the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (Experimental) [SSHWS].[5] The new scale became operational on May 15, 2010.[6] The scale excludes flood ranges, storm surge estimations, rainfall, and location, which means a Category 2 hurricane which hits a major city will likely do far more cumulative damage than a Category 5 hurricane that hits a rural area.[7] The agency cited various hurricanes as reasons for removing the "scientifically inaccurate" information, including Hurricane Katrina (2005) and Hurricane Ike (2008), which both had stronger than estimated storm surges, and Hurricane Charley (2004), which had weaker than estimated storm surge.[8] Since removed from the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale, storm surge predicting and modeling is now handled with the use of a computerized numerical model developed by the National Weather Service called "Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes" (SLOSH).
2
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:21 pm to Rox
Damn this thing is going to skirt along the coast as a Hurricane for 24+ hours? Ouch. That is awful.
Also...Isaac is starting to worry me.
Also...Isaac is starting to worry me.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:23 pm to NYNolaguy1
Saving this for sure. I wonder if it will be able to keep feed the whole time
This post was edited on 9/12/18 at 4:25 pm
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:24 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
For example, people think Katrina landed as a Cat 5 storm, but really it was a Cat 3 when it hit the gulf coast, yet she put 30' of water into Pass Christian.
Yeah studies have shown that as long as a hurricane is already intense (think Cat 3 or higher) the size of the wind field is by far the biggest factor for surge heights, assuming the angle of approach and slope of the bottoms are the same.
It's theorized that the strongest possible storm in the Gulf of Mexico would be 880mb. There is a study that shows if a storm the size of Camille was 880mb, it still would not have produced the surge seen during Katrina.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:28 pm to al_cajun
quote:
Saving this for sure. I wonder if it will be able to keep feed the whole time
I can put it in the other thread too for anyone interested.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:33 pm to lsufan112001
quote:
Florence will be down to 90 mph by the time it hits land.
It seems to be weakening earlier than expected, and faster. Other than lots of rain it may end up a big nothingburger
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:34 pm to rds dc
It appears we're going to get a bit damp here in Cola.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:36 pm to deltaland
quote:
Other than lots of rain it may end up a big nothingburger
Other than lots of rain, Harvey ended up a big nothingburger.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:36 pm to Rox
Surfline has Cape Lookout at 10-15 feet right now rising to 19 feet tonight. Ocracoke estimated to be already over 10 feet as well.
Who knows how close to accurate those are since I don't think they have people checking in from those spots, but that's the biggest I've seen OBX.
Who knows how close to accurate those are since I don't think they have people checking in from those spots, but that's the biggest I've seen OBX.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:37 pm to slackster
It was said more people died from Katrina because they survived Camile.
Folks saw Katrina' s wind speed was far less than Camile's knew the impact from Camile, and felt they were safe.
Unfortunately Katrina's record storm surge was not only high but was much more widespread. Folks that were safe in 1969, were not safe in 2005.
Folks saw Katrina' s wind speed was far less than Camile's knew the impact from Camile, and felt they were safe.
Unfortunately Katrina's record storm surge was not only high but was much more widespread. Folks that were safe in 1969, were not safe in 2005.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:38 pm to rds dc
Joyce would have never been a named system 50 years ago.
Named storms are inflated with modern technology.
Named storms are inflated with modern technology.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:38 pm to deltaland
quote:like harvey?
Other than lots of rain it may end up a big nothingburger
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:39 pm to deltaland
quote:
Other than lots of rain it may end up a big nothingburger
Are you aware of what a year's worth of rain in just 3 days spread over a wide geographical area can do? I am.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:40 pm to deltaland
quote:
It seems to be weakening earlier than expected, and faster. Other than lots of rain it may end up a big nothingburger
NHC discussion notes the outflow as a testament to the energy she's picking up. Florence simply isn't translating it to maximize eyewall winds. It's been served to increase the overall windfield, putting more people in line for sustained hurricane conditions with the size also contributing to storm surge, despite her maybe not landfalling in NC.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:41 pm to deuce985
quote:
Nothing to think that right now. They even canceled the flight into 95L that was scheduled today. It's likely to form into something but hurricane is way too early to be saying...
Isaac has a chance of re-forming into a hurricane and hitting Louisiana next week. We baws ain't out of the woods yet, baw.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:41 pm to NYNolaguy1
I just Googled images of Biloxi and Pass Christian after Katrina came through ... still gives me chills.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:42 pm to Centinel
quote:
Other than lots of rain, Harvey ended up a big nothingburger.
Cute but tell that to Rockport.
This post was edited on 9/12/18 at 4:43 pm
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:43 pm to Duke
quote:
NHC discussion notes the outflow as a testament to the energy she's picking up. Florence simply isn't translating it to maximize eyewall winds. It's been served to increase the overall windfield, putting more people in line for sustained hurricane conditions with the size also contributing to storm surge, despite her maybe not landfalling in NC.
I feel like I am beating a dead horse, but this is one of the fundamental flaws with the SS scale.
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