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Message
re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:43 pm to The Boat
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:43 pm to The Boat
quote:
Cute but tell that to Rockport.
My response was a sarcastic response to deltaland, who seems to think Flo will be a big nothingburger because it's not a Cat 5.
1
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:43 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
you aware of what a year's worth of rain in just 3 days spread over a wide geographical area can do? I am.
I’m just trying to get the doomcane wishcasters riled up.
I’ll be surprised if winds are under 115 mph when it approaches NC coast. It seems to have been fluctuating between 115 and 130 for 36 hours now depending on eyewall cycles.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:45 pm to Boss
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:46 pm to al_cajun
quote:
Saving this for sure. I wonder if it will be able to keep feed the whole time
I saved it too. Looks like it's pretty gusty there already.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:47 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
I feel like I am beating a dead horse, but this is one of the fundamental flaws with the SS scale.
The scale does what it was designed to. It tells you how bad you're fricked wind damage wise at certain wind speeds. It correlates to surge obviously but not directly.
I've seen "Hurricane Severity Index" as another measure to classify hurricanes. Gives a 1-25 score on wind speed and 1-25 on size. In practice, it rates Katrina and Camille as equal storms.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:47 pm to Centinel
quote:
My response was a sarcastic response to deltaland, who seems to think Flo will be a big nothingburger because it's not a Cat 5.
Right but Harvey had severe wind impacts. Florence might not.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:48 pm to Duke
quote:
NHC discussion notes the outflow as a testament to the energy she's picking up. Florence simply isn't translating it to maximize eyewall winds. It's been served to increase the overall windfield, putting more people in line for sustained hurricane conditions with the size also contributing to storm surge, despite her maybe not landfalling in NC.
I wonder when she slows down? Still moving at 16mph and the outer bands are getting close to the coast. With the size and expanded wind field and forward current speed the surge will be really bad if it doesn’t slow down fairly soon
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:50 pm to Champagne
quote:
Champagne
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:51 pm to Duke
I think the scale should have 3 sets of categories one each for wind speed, wind field, and surge potential. Each 1-5.
For example right now this storm would be something like a Cat 3-4-4 with 3 wind, 4 wind field, 4 surge.
For example right now this storm would be something like a Cat 3-4-4 with 3 wind, 4 wind field, 4 surge.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:54 pm to slackster
Basically your links said that size, speed of storm, wind speed, land shape, and timing (high or low tide) all play a factor in storm surge.
Don't say size is king when there are 10 different variables at play.
Don't say size is king when there are 10 different variables at play.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:55 pm to Duke
Overall angular momentum being conserved
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:56 pm to Klingler7
Looks like the Frying Pan cam got turned??? American flag was in the video and no longer is .. ??
eta and now it's in view again. Wind is kicking.
eta and now it's in view again. Wind is kicking.
This post was edited on 9/12/18 at 4:57 pm
Posted on 9/12/18 at 4:57 pm to tiger91
Posted on 9/12/18 at 5:00 pm to Klingler7
quote:
Overall angular momentum being conserved
If you're into the whole brevity thing
Posted on 9/12/18 at 5:01 pm to Boss
quote:
Basically your links said that size, speed of storm, wind speed, land shape, and timing (high or low tide) all play a factor in storm surge.
Don't say size is king when there are 10 different variables at play.
I said size is the most important factor once you get to a certain storm intensity, assuming the those variables like the shape of the bottom and the angle of approach are the same.
I stand by that statement and those studies support it.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 5:01 pm to LSUJuice
quote:
Are you aware of what a year's worth of rain in just 3 days spread over a wide geographical area can do? I am.
Right correct. this storm looks like the 2014 flood event in SC with similar rainfall (depending on location/path) and with higher wind speeds (45+) over a longer period of time. And surge.
It's not nothing no matter what it tops out at tomorrow.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 5:02 pm to NYNolaguy1
Aaaaaaaand there goes my productivity at work tomorrow.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 5:03 pm to tiger91
quote:
Looks like the Frying Pan cam got turned??? American flag was in the video and no longer is .. ??
I think the camera is programmed for a "tour". It points in one direction for a little while, then rotates to a different one, etc.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 5:03 pm to slackster
But you implicitly are comparing it to Katrina ie a weakening storm coming on shore. Angle of approach is different, shoreline is different, and speed of storm ia different. It's a fundamentally different scenario
Posted on 9/12/18 at 5:04 pm to crispyUGA
quote:
Aaaaaaaand there goes my productivity at work tomorrow.
I'm sick af. I guess I have something to watch on tv while stuck in bed.
ETA: assuming a tree doesn't fall on my house.
This post was edited on 9/12/18 at 5:06 pm
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