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re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:12 pm to
Posted by TH03
Mogadishu
Member since Dec 2008
172004 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:12 pm to
God damn please go north over Cuba.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40226 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:14 pm to
What do you look for to see the outflow??
Posted by LSU Patrick
Member since Jan 2009
77886 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:18 pm to
quote:

If the track goes to Augusta, GA, by Sunday, how much of a punch will it still have?


Not much. Probably 30-40 mph winds and 3-5 inches of rain at the worst. Flooding is not generally an issue in the downtown area except for houses and roads within 100 ft of the Savannah River on either side (downtown Augusta and North Augusta, SC). Tornadoes can crop up in rural spots near Clark's Hill/Thurmond Reservoir. Those counties typically are Edgefield Co and McCormick Counties in South Carolina; Lincoln and McDuffie Counties in Georgia.
This post was edited on 9/12/18 at 12:24 pm
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
21764 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:18 pm to
High altitude feathery cirrus clouds going away from the center. You can see it moving from the center at the edge of the rotation.

Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:19 pm to


Note the steamy looking stuff moving the opposite direction of the circulation. North on the west side, moving more east around the north, and toward the south on the east side. That's the outflow.
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:20 pm to
quote:

she sounds hott... y'all bang?

Nah. She just blew him.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:20 pm to
Might actually not be a horrible thing to see a storm like that go over parts of Cuba. They seem to really struggle with the terrain and often get shredded up.
Posted by Whataburger
95.60 Longitude 30.20 Latitude
Member since Jan 2018
924 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:21 pm to
So it'll be a Cat 2 at landfall?

Calm the frick down!
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147074 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:22 pm to
quote:

Nah. She just blew him.

seems like she got all wet though
Posted by theunknownknight
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
60914 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:22 pm to
*wish-casting activated*

I think Isaac is going to corn-hole Louisiana

*wish-casting ended*
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21505 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:24 pm to
quote:

Why does every single storm have at least one model that takes the storm right up New Orleans arse?


That image is the 00z Euro EPS, ensemble models generate a bunch of slightly different possibilities at the start. This model has 50+ tracks. What it shows is high confidence (tight cluster) of westward track. Beyond that confidence plummets with about 1/3 of the members showing Isaac surviving long enough to make the north turn and basically no confidence in where it would go after turning north with tracks from NO to Bermuda.

Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147074 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:26 pm to
quote:

That image is the 00z Euro EPS, ensemble models generate a bunch of slightly different possibilities at the start. This model has 50+ tracks. What it shows is high confidence (tight cluster) of westward track. Beyond that confidence plummets with about 1/3 of the members showing Isaac surviving long enough to make the north turn and basically no confidence in where it would go after turning north with tracks from NO to Bermuda.

I'm still christening any model that shows a straight at NOLA shot the "frick Mitch" model (tm)
Posted by LSU Patrick
Member since Jan 2009
77886 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:29 pm to
quote:

TABS can go frick itself.


I hear ya, man. I have just had a feeling that this thing would make landfall near Charleston from the beginning. You need to be ready to get the hell out of there if it looks like it is going to take that track within the next 12 hours.
Posted by GetCocky11
Calgary, AB
Member since Oct 2012
53509 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:29 pm to
quote:

So it'll be a Cat 2 at landfall?

Calm the frick down!


I don't think you understand what has been going on with this storm up to this point.
Posted by TH03
Mogadishu
Member since Dec 2008
172004 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:30 pm to
I’m gonna be smashed and stuck in a hurricane I can feel it.
Posted by UncleFestersLegs
Member since Nov 2010
16879 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:31 pm to
quote:

Also look at that outflow on all but the SW side.
The possible implications of this being?
Posted by PsychTiger
Member since Jul 2004
109173 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:32 pm to
quote:

You need to be ready to get the hell out of there if it looks like it is going to take that track within the next 12 hours.


Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147074 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:32 pm to
140 mph winds just less than 1,600 ft up in the northern eyewall
Posted by Centinel
Idaho
Member since Sep 2016
45911 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

I don't think you understand what has been going on with this storm up to this point.


Look at his account creation date and post count.

Alter troll.

Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
21764 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:34 pm to
quote:

The possible implications of this being?


The storm is currently well ventilated- i.e. as long as it stays like this it most likely wont weaken.
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