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re: How much lower do housing prices need to go before people actually start buying?
Posted on 9/8/25 at 9:26 am to boogiewoogie1978
Posted on 9/8/25 at 9:26 am to boogiewoogie1978
Prices of existing homes are high, but replacement costs are usually higher. I see prices of new construction being higher / sf than existing homes but because most newer construction homes are smaller and on tiny lots, they can still compete. If I were looking to move in this market, i'd find an updated existing home and just refi when the rates come down, because as soon as the rates come down, the prices are only going to go up even more due to the lack of inventory that will follow from the influx of buyers. Without a major recession or some other crash, housing prices are only going up.
1
Posted on 9/8/25 at 9:27 am to Bazzatcha
quote:
Without a major recession or some other crash, housing prices are only going up.
A crash or recession has to happen. The current market gap is higher than the 2008 bubble.
Posted on 9/8/25 at 9:31 am to Galactic Inquisitor
quote:
Anything to avoid acknowledging that current economic policies are making shite worse for 90% of Americans.
Your feelings don’t change the facts of what I said.
Posted on 9/8/25 at 9:32 am to boogiewoogie1978
quote:a vast majority of people buy not based on the price but based on the interest payment.
How much lower do housing prices need to go before people actually start buying?
Posted on 9/8/25 at 9:32 am to Cotten
quote:
Interest rates are the significantly larger issue at play here.
Nah. The interest rates are fine and the prices are too high.
That whole period of sub 5% interest fricked everything up and the people who bought between '21 and early '24 are going to get fricked if they need to sell, and i say that as somebody in that exact position right now.
Posted on 9/8/25 at 9:33 am to boogiewoogie1978
quote:
housing prices
while not insignificant, this is only one part of the overall problem plaguing the housing market right now...
interest rates, taxes, insurance, uncertainty within the economy/inability to really budget, etc...
there are many factors, and while a drop in housing prices would move the needle, it wouldn't open the floodgates
Posted on 9/8/25 at 9:48 am to boogiewoogie1978
Price are high because idiots drove them up for no good reason during Covid. Talk about irrational behavior.
Also everybody has a house that is too big. Somehow families of 4-6 people lived in a 1500sqft house in 1960 and 1970. Now those people all "need" 3500-4500sqft??? No, they just think they do.
Newsflash, it's a lot more work to keep up a larger house. They're also not giving you the other half of the house for free, and since real wages haven't done so hot in my life time (see: offshoring) they figured out how to make houses shittier (sorry I mean less expensive).
Houses are such a con game, and the real estate agents, contractors, and insurance company are all making out like a bandit.
If this chart is correct and the trend continues, in 30 years the AVERAGE house will be 4500sqft. When does this idiocy stop?
Also everybody has a house that is too big. Somehow families of 4-6 people lived in a 1500sqft house in 1960 and 1970. Now those people all "need" 3500-4500sqft??? No, they just think they do.
Newsflash, it's a lot more work to keep up a larger house. They're also not giving you the other half of the house for free, and since real wages haven't done so hot in my life time (see: offshoring) they figured out how to make houses shittier (sorry I mean less expensive).
Houses are such a con game, and the real estate agents, contractors, and insurance company are all making out like a bandit.
If this chart is correct and the trend continues, in 30 years the AVERAGE house will be 4500sqft. When does this idiocy stop?
This post was edited on 9/8/25 at 9:51 am
Posted on 9/8/25 at 9:50 am to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
Interest rates are at or near historical norms. Housing prices have doubled to tripled in comparison to real wages.
Builders engage in market manipulation via price fixing.
They own the appraisals too, so the “market value” is always whatever they need it to be.
Everyone in the chain, from developer to builder to lender to title company, is making money hand over fist.
By the time the homebuyer gets the bill, it’s 30%-35% pure fat.
It’s disgusting…and I’m a pretty brutal capitalist.
This post was edited on 9/8/25 at 9:52 am
Posted on 9/8/25 at 9:57 am to Galactic Inquisitor
quote:
Anything to avoid acknowledging that current economic policies are making shite worse for 90% of Americans.
You think this started 6 months ago?
It's the insurance hikes that kills most. Being able to afford 1k a month note sounds doable until they hit you with 800 a month for escrow.
Plus people think they need a 300k starter house.
Posted on 9/8/25 at 9:57 am to Longhorn Actual
Build your own house.
I dont mean GC it yourself. Build it yourself. You'll figure out how much of that fluffy shite you actually dont need, save a mountain of money, lose some weight, maybe break a few fingers, and grow old knowing you were a better man than most these days.
I dont mean GC it yourself. Build it yourself. You'll figure out how much of that fluffy shite you actually dont need, save a mountain of money, lose some weight, maybe break a few fingers, and grow old knowing you were a better man than most these days.
Posted on 9/8/25 at 9:59 am to boogiewoogie1978
Lower income bracket, probably 30%
High income bracket are still buying
High income bracket are still buying
Posted on 9/8/25 at 10:00 am to bayouvette
quote:
Plus people think they need a 300k starter house.
People think they need a starter house. Starter houses cost $300k
Posted on 9/8/25 at 10:01 am to NFLSU
quote:
Rising property taxes are another major reason so many people are renting instead of buying.
Those renters are stupid if they think they aren't paying the property taxes
Posted on 9/8/25 at 10:02 am to NFLSU
quote:
Rising property taxes are another major reason so many people are renting instead of buying.
Our property taxes went up a lot because the winston Salem Forstyth County school system here is ran by a bunch of idiot minorities that can't do a damn thing right. On of the largest increases in county history.
Bunch of DEI hired morons.
Posted on 9/8/25 at 10:18 am to boogiewoogie1978
How did you determine that they are too high? I am a real estate appraiser with over 30 years of experience.
Demand and prices are not likely to 'take off'. Why you ask yourself? Mainly, the cost of insurance. Insurance costs are choking what limited demand there is in the market.
Demand and prices are not likely to 'take off'. Why you ask yourself? Mainly, the cost of insurance. Insurance costs are choking what limited demand there is in the market.
Posted on 9/8/25 at 10:22 am to Bayou Warrior 64
Think it’s funny how people are bitching about interest rates when the last 15 years or so have been outliers. Had a 6-1/8% rate when I bought my first home in 2005. People just want more house than they can afford. Rates are fine it’s inflation relative to wages that’s the real killer. Insurance rates have skyrocketed along with damn near every other cost of home ownership besides mortgage.
Posted on 9/8/25 at 10:23 am to Cotten
quote:
Interest rates are the significantly larger issue at play here.
This.
You can have inflated house prices or you can have high interest rates but you can’t really have both. Especially in a slow economy.
Posted on 9/8/25 at 10:32 am to Mid Iowa Tiger
quote:
If that’s the case it’s a pretty big logical fallacy. Renters de facto pay property taxes via their rent - they pay everything a normal home owner would. Landlords factor that into their rent payment.
My landlord purchased the house I live in in 2019 for $115,000. The house would likely sell for around $200,000 today. (Not because of improvements, but just because of how much entry level homes have spiked since then).
Some jurisdictions cap property taxes increases to a few percent a year. Also the assessed value is likely lower than the actual value. Meaning that as a renter, it’s likely I’m paying lower property taxes through my landlord than if I had purchased the place myself at the higher value.
Posted on 9/8/25 at 10:37 am to Buryl
quote:
My landlord purchased the house I live in in 2019 for $115,000. The house would likely sell for around $200,000 today. (Not because of improvements, but just because of how much entry level homes have spiked since then).
Some jurisdictions cap property taxes increases to a few percent a year. Also the assessed value is likely lower than the actual value. Meaning that as a renter, it’s likely I’m paying lower property taxes through my landlord than if I had purchased the place myself at the higher value.
While this is somewhat true, it’s likely more wrong than right. Rents are based on current values, not historical costs. You may be saving pennies on the valuation delta, but you haven’t bused the game like you think you have
Posted on 9/8/25 at 10:37 am to teke184
quote:
You can have inflated house prices or you can have high interest rates but you can’t really have both. Especially in a slow economy.
We need a correction in the market ( we need a recession in other words), not lower interest rates. Get ready to hunker down and endure the market correction that has been needed since the government screwed everything up during Covid with irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies.
Lowering interest rates right now will ramp up inflation again after we just finished curtailing it.
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