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How long until colleges become extinct?
Posted on 5/19/26 at 8:27 am
Posted on 5/19/26 at 8:27 am
With A.I. seemingly taking over a large majority of jobs , I’m assuming college enrollment would drop dramatically to the point they could not remain open .
Am I wrong?
Am I wrong?
30
Posted on 5/19/26 at 8:28 am to Septiger
quote:
Am I wrong?
Yes.
I think the student loan bubble will pop, trades will become more desirable, and AI will continue to change industry, but there will always be a need for higher education.
I don't think the idea that everyone needs to go to college will continue though, due to the three things I mentioned.
Posted on 5/19/26 at 8:28 am to Septiger
quote:
Am I wrong?
Yeah
Posted on 5/19/26 at 8:29 am to Septiger
quote:
I’m assuming college enrollment would drop dramatically to the point they could not remain open .
quote:
Am I wrong?
Yes
Posted on 5/19/26 at 8:29 am to CatfishJohn
The unaffordability of college and the woke mind virus will end colleges before AI does. I'm very on the fence about my kids going to college.
Posted on 5/19/26 at 8:29 am to Septiger
You’re partly right, but the reality is more nuanced than a straight collapse. Here’s what’s actually happening:
Enrollment IS declining — but AI isn’t the main driver yet.
2026 marks the first year of a projected 15-year decline in first-time undergraduates, as the number of 18-year-olds peaks and begins to fall — and that demographic reality is arriving alongside a sharp drop in international enrollment. ? So a big chunk of the decline is simply fewer young people, not AI displacing jobs.
The skepticism about college value is real and growing.
63% of Americans polled in Fall 2025 said a four-year degree is not worth the cost, and the current underemployment rate for college graduates sits at 42.5%. ? That’s a staggering number, and AI anxiety is feeding into it.
Students are rethinking their paths, not dropping out entirely.
42% of bachelor’s degree students say AI has caused them to seriously consider changing their major, and among associate degree students that number rises to 56%. ? So students aren’t necessarily leaving — they’re pivoting toward AI-relevant fields.
Small and regional colleges face the real existential threat.
Rising operational costs and structural deficits are pushing regional public and small private colleges into consolidation. Enrollment decline will continue, and it will be uneven. ? Large flagship universities will likely survive; hundreds of smaller schools won’t.
The bottom line: You’re right that the pressure is real and accelerating. But it’s a slow bleed for most institutions, not a sudden collapse — and the schools most at risk were already financially fragile before AI entered the picture. The bigger immediate question isn’t whether college survives, but which colleges survive.
Enrollment IS declining — but AI isn’t the main driver yet.
2026 marks the first year of a projected 15-year decline in first-time undergraduates, as the number of 18-year-olds peaks and begins to fall — and that demographic reality is arriving alongside a sharp drop in international enrollment. ? So a big chunk of the decline is simply fewer young people, not AI displacing jobs.
The skepticism about college value is real and growing.
63% of Americans polled in Fall 2025 said a four-year degree is not worth the cost, and the current underemployment rate for college graduates sits at 42.5%. ? That’s a staggering number, and AI anxiety is feeding into it.
Students are rethinking their paths, not dropping out entirely.
42% of bachelor’s degree students say AI has caused them to seriously consider changing their major, and among associate degree students that number rises to 56%. ? So students aren’t necessarily leaving — they’re pivoting toward AI-relevant fields.
Small and regional colleges face the real existential threat.
Rising operational costs and structural deficits are pushing regional public and small private colleges into consolidation. Enrollment decline will continue, and it will be uneven. ? Large flagship universities will likely survive; hundreds of smaller schools won’t.
The bottom line: You’re right that the pressure is real and accelerating. But it’s a slow bleed for most institutions, not a sudden collapse — and the schools most at risk were already financially fragile before AI entered the picture. The bigger immediate question isn’t whether college survives, but which colleges survive.
Posted on 5/19/26 at 8:35 am to Septiger
quote:
How long until colleges become extinct?
They won’t. But there will be changes, including a culling of the herd.
Posted on 5/19/26 at 8:35 am to ThermoDynamicTiger
quote:
I'm very on the fence about my kids going to college.
If you want your kids to learn a trade and perhaps start their own business I don’t see the need.
If you want your kids to have a shot at a white collar c-suite job - they’ll probably need one.
Posted on 5/19/26 at 8:37 am to OysterPoBoy
I agree with everything you wrote, but dammit ChatGPT needs to learn that not everything needs to be expressed as a 500 word essay 
Posted on 5/19/26 at 8:39 am to Septiger
There will be a massive consolidation. Smaller universities are screwed
Posted on 5/19/26 at 8:39 am to Bigdawgb
That was Claude.
Posted on 5/19/26 at 8:41 am to Bigdawgb
quote:
I agree with everything you wrote, but dammit ChatGPT needs to learn that not everything needs to be expressed as a 500 word essay
Pretty sure you can control the number of words it spits out if you want to.
“Now say that again using half the number of words”
Posted on 5/19/26 at 8:43 am to ThermoDynamicTiger
quote:
I'm very on the fence about my kids going to college.
Why?
Posted on 5/19/26 at 8:44 am to Septiger
quote:
I’m assuming college enrollment would drop dramatically to the point they could not remain open
You'll see more boys heading to trades, but girls will continue to go to college. Harder for them to just hop into something that's profitable and sustainable. College isn't going anywhere. I think Juco enrollment will see an increase.
Posted on 5/19/26 at 8:45 am to Septiger
Not soon enough.
Our educational system has become a bane on civilization.
Our educational system has become a bane on civilization.
Posted on 5/19/26 at 8:46 am to Septiger
maybe colleges can go back to being about higher learning and knowledge and less job mills?
Posted on 5/19/26 at 9:01 am to Septiger
You are wrong, but I don’t say that in a mean way.
Here’s the thing. College is more than just what you learn in the classroom. You go there to be with other people and learn how to work and socialize with them. It’s where you go to get the polish you need to be in and manipulate society. You make friends. You might find a spouse.
Can you be a success without all that? Sure. College is just one path to help you succeed.
But to future-proof your career you need to be able to do the things that AI can’t do. Being good in a room full of people… being able to make a person to person connection… using social capital to get things done… AI can’t do that. You can sharpen those skills in college.
Here’s the thing. College is more than just what you learn in the classroom. You go there to be with other people and learn how to work and socialize with them. It’s where you go to get the polish you need to be in and manipulate society. You make friends. You might find a spouse.
Can you be a success without all that? Sure. College is just one path to help you succeed.
But to future-proof your career you need to be able to do the things that AI can’t do. Being good in a room full of people… being able to make a person to person connection… using social capital to get things done… AI can’t do that. You can sharpen those skills in college.
This post was edited on 5/19/26 at 9:02 am
Posted on 5/19/26 at 9:09 am to Septiger
Saw this going around Twitter yesterday. Yikes!
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.
Posted on 5/19/26 at 9:11 am to Septiger
Not necessarily AI but just a big demographic shift that’s going to hurt colleges over the next decade plus.
Not as many 18 y/o’s as there used to be and the enrollment cliff is going to start hitting next year and beyond.
The big state universities should be able to weather the storm for the most part but some of these small colleges are in for a world of hurt.
MS as an example but the schools like delta state, MS valley, MUW etc are staring down the barrel of shite. Expect a lot of small college consolidation and closures over the next 10 years
Not as many 18 y/o’s as there used to be and the enrollment cliff is going to start hitting next year and beyond.
The big state universities should be able to weather the storm for the most part but some of these small colleges are in for a world of hurt.
MS as an example but the schools like delta state, MS valley, MUW etc are staring down the barrel of shite. Expect a lot of small college consolidation and closures over the next 10 years
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