re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN

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TBH it was kinda both.

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You guys can blame me. Next weekend was the first vacation I've had in a couple years and was bringing the kids to Destin. frick me.

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Damn.

SIAP

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Sort of an unusual path for when it moves inland.

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this could be the third hurricane in a year for the big bend region of florida

frick, man

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Well if you have to pick somewhere along the gulf coast for it to go thats about the best place

Lowest population density anywhere outside of between Brownsville and Corpus

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SUNDAY NIGHT NOTES ON INVEST 97L: A hurricane is expected to form over the Gulf of Mexico within the next 72 hours. The name will be Helene (pronounced heh-LEEN).

It remains important to point out that the system has not formed yet. Until we have a well defined low level center, and data from hunter hurricane aircraft (which will be baked into computer models), model output will remain suspect.

It is pretty much impossible to initialize a system that hasn't formed.

Having said that, there is decent agreement with the various ensemble members tonight.

*Highest landfall probabilities are centered around Indian Pass/Cape San Blas/Apalachicola, but the range of possibilities extends from Pensacola over to Cedar Key on the Florida Gulf Coast.

*For now it looks like the Alabama Gulf Coast will be on the drier, west side of the circulation with an offshore flow.

*Intensity guidance suggests Helene could reach category 2 or 3 strength by the time it reaches the coast, most likely Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening. Those along the Florida Gulf Coast from Pensacola to Cedar Key need to be ready for a hurricane (especially from Panama City Beach east through the Big Bend region). A hurricane watch will be issued most likely by Tuesday night or early Wednesday; this is when the area of highest impact will be defined (and over a much smaller area).

*It is still too early for an impact forecast for any specific point along the Gulf Coast, or for any place in Alabama.

*Remember, the main impact in terms of wind, storm surge, and freshwater flooding will be along and to the east of the point of landfall. "East is the beast".

*Guidance from WPC suggests the heaviest rain from Helene will be over Florida, Georgia, and Southeast Alabama. However, with the system expected to jog to the northwest once inland, much of Alabama could see 2-4 inches of rain Wednesday through Friday.

*For now the weather looks decent for the college football games in Alabama Saturday, with just a few lingering, scattered showers around.

Understand any of this could change; be watching for updates. When you are dealing with tropical systems, working with old information is working with bad information.

I will have a detailed video briefing early tomorrow morning here on Facebook, and on my YouTube channel: LINK

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Looking healthy here. May have a TS by morning

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Looking healthy here. May have a TS by morning

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I could be wrong, but I don’t think the center of that convection is the assumed center or the low level circulation. It may pull it underneath itself though.

Cold front gonna kill this thing.

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Looking healthy here. May have a TS by morning

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Can't say for sure without recon, but that convection is well east of where the CIMSS analysis shows the best low level vort. Also, the rate at which it is moving eastward is an indication that it probably is a transient convective feature.