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re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN

Posted on 9/17/24 at 7:42 pm to
Posted by Mr Roboto
Seattle
Member since Jan 2023
4371 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 7:42 pm to
quote:

Potential Gulf Threat


Where else would it go?
Posted by Hold That Tiger 10
Member since Oct 2013
23502 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 7:45 pm to
Duke, RDS,

What are we looking for early that will determine if it develops, and conditions that would make it strong/weak? As well as possibilities for the steering.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
13000 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 7:46 pm to
Posted by Ingeniero
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2013
20197 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 7:48 pm to
quote:

Potential Gulf Threat by rds dc


This post was edited on 9/17/24 at 7:48 pm
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
31976 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 7:49 pm to
Posted by Honest Tune
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2011
18208 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 7:49 pm to
Meh. Alabama is due.
Posted by Gris Gris
OTIS!NO RULES FOR SAUCES ON STEAK!!
Member since Feb 2008
49054 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 7:51 pm to
Let the fun begin.
Posted by LSUTiger23
Madisonville, LA
Member since Jun 2010
1284 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 7:56 pm to
Any ideas on what our steering setup could look like for next week?
Posted by Purple Spoon
Hoth
Member since Feb 2005
19280 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 7:58 pm to
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
65908 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 7:59 pm to
quote:

What are we looking for early that will determine if it develops, and conditions that would make it strong/weak? As well as possibilities for the steering.

I'm neither of those two, but....

We have a Central American Gyre forming which will provide some storminess to that part of the world and the WCAB. We will then have an initial trough that moves south into FL and into the Atlantic. That trough digs pretty far south on most models leading to the southern part of it getting cut off. That cut off low drifts SW into the WCAB area and helps goose the environment with a little more lift. Meanwhile, we should have a developing Pacific trough making it's way across the country, along with a possible shortwave feature to its SE. Those two, and the timing of their development and any development in the WCAB will be the biggest influencers on where whatever may form goes. Stronger, more progressive second trough/front would push the system into FL, which is the thinking of the GFS right now.
This post was edited on 9/17/24 at 8:01 pm
Posted by tketaco
Sunnyside, Houston
Member since Jan 2010
21121 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 8:00 pm to
Definitely not hitting Houston.
Posted by Costanza
Member since May 2011
3255 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 8:02 pm to
Will this affect my travel plans to the Bay of Camp Peachy?
Posted by AmosMosesAndTwins
Lake Charles
Member since Apr 2010
18336 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 8:04 pm to
How will my flight plans flying for work be affected when I’m scheduled to fly in? Because I’m flying for work on a flight and definitely fly for work all the time.
Posted by CuseTiger
On the road
Member since Jul 2013
8730 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 8:05 pm to
I've been watching the last 6-7 GFS runs and all of them have a hurricane or trop storm hitting FL. Stocked up on some water and non perishables tonight as a just in case. Even if it doesn't hit south Florida, the rain, wind, and flooding from this look like they would do some damage. It's been so wet in FL that I can't see the ground soaking up this much rain easily unless it's a quick moving storm
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
24340 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 8:07 pm to
The local Sam's was out of sandpaper and hot sauce. Any ideas where I can buy some?
Posted by misterc
St. George
Member since Sep 2014
730 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 8:08 pm to


I'm Ready
Posted by TheFonz
Somewhere in Louisiana
Member since Jul 2016
21927 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 8:08 pm to
Posted by Z Cavaricci
Member since Jun 2020
1720 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 8:09 pm to
Posted by Nitrogen
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Aug 2016
7115 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 8:12 pm to
frick off @20%
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
39236 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 8:13 pm to
I picture rds, Duke, you and a couple of others in front of about 10 monitors .. kinda like a control room of sorts.

Always appreciate rds’ heads up and the information/interpretations from of you.



And for good measure .. I hope my baby but growing sunflowers for our St. Jude project won’t be harmed.
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