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re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN

Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:42 pm to
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40230 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:42 pm to
Dry air is good. That much I know.

Well I’m 99.9% sure.
Posted by LSU Grad Alabama Fan
369 Cardboard Box Lane
Member since Nov 2019
14232 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:45 pm to
You are like a hurricane.
There's calm in your eye.
And I'm getting blown away.
To somewhere safer where the feeling stays.
I want to love you but I'm getting blown away.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21522 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:50 pm to
quote:

I don’t understand this language.

Good news or bad?


Pressure looks to still be around 975mb, while the HWRF shows 963mb for 00z. This is a good short-term trend.
Posted by Triple Bogey
19th Green
Member since May 2017
6802 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:51 pm to
Maybe a dumb question, but why does the GFS have it way weaker than the HWRF, HMON, and the HAFS?

960mb (GFS) to 920mb on the others.

Low cat 3 or damn near a cat 5.
Posted by ladyluckUGA
Member since Feb 2014
6432 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:54 pm to
quote:

why does the GFS have it way weaker than the HWRF, HMON, and the HAFS? 960mb (GFS) to 920mb on the others. Low cat 3 or damn near a cat 5


Just love it when a man talks dirty.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75137 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:54 pm to
quote:

Sat presentation is not very impressive right now. I wonder if the hurricane models are trying to snap a tight inner core while ignoring the larger overall circulation of the storm. We'll find out soon enough.

I saw some talk earlier about this, but can't find it now. There's discrepancy even between the hurricane models as to how tight the core gets.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:55 pm to
quote:

Sat presentation is not very impressive right now. I wonder if the hurricane models are trying to snap a tight inner core while ignoring the larger overall circulation of the storm. We'll find out soon enough.


HAFS-A 18z run seemed to have a pretty good handle on where Helene is now (972mb at 7pm was the model prediction). It still got her down to 944mb and up to 140mph before landfall.

The simulated IR didn’t have a well defined eye until mid morning tomorrow on that run.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75137 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:55 pm to
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40230 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 6:58 pm to
Let’s hope she’s as loose as a goose.
Posted by Drank
Member since Jun 1864
Member since Dec 2012
12344 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 7:01 pm to
quote:

TWC got trolled.


What happened?
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51709 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 7:03 pm to
7 PM CDT Intermediate Advisory (no updated cone with intermediate advisories).

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
700 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HELENE LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 86.6W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66950 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 7:04 pm to
Cmon low end storm, we need you
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
182339 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 7:04 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 7:24 pm
Posted by Ponchy Tiger
Ponchatoula
Member since Aug 2004
49682 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 7:04 pm to
quote:

What happened?


Jim Cantore was interviewing someone in Tallahassee and some young guy ran up screaming Trump 2024 over and over till he got pulled away. In studio host Jaqui Jeras no doubt a Kamala voter was pissed. When they went back to Jim he was laughing.
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51709 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 7:05 pm to
Posted by im4LSU
Hattiesburg, MS
Member since Aug 2004
34503 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 7:05 pm to
quote:

We haven’t gotten the “if you don’t evacuate please write your name and SSN on your arm so your body can be identified” wording quite yet


That still shakes me up. We didn’t write it on our arms but it got bad enough where we were huddled around the island in the kitchen with our IDs in our pockets.

That was a really really bad day….
Posted by Gee Grenouille
Member since Jul 2018
8055 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 7:05 pm to
well baws I'm riding it out offshore. Don't believe the news, we ain't evacuated.
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
33491 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 7:07 pm to
quote:

Maybe a dumb question, but why does the GFS have it way weaker than the HWRF, HMON, and the HAFS?

960mb (GFS) to 920mb on the others.

Low cat 3 or damn near a cat 5.


My very dumb answer to your good question is that I assume they all use some different modeling & computers for their predictions & sometimes it can vary in results

I am certain one of the pros has a much better answer for you though as I am amateur at all things except for copy pasta, memes, finding weather porn & being a general smartass when needed

Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 7:08 pm to
quote:

Round 2 in 10 days?


Possibly but delete the graphic to avoid confusion.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40230 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 7:09 pm to
My brother worked in a hospital for Rita and Laura.

Rita for sure I know that they had to write ssn on their arms. Bit it was right after Katrina so everyone was freaked out.

Laura I’m not sure about.

Scary for sure.
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