re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN

Posted by lsuman25

Erwinville

Member since Aug 2013

43295 posts

Posted on 9/25/24 at 4:02 pm to lsuman25

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

Posted by VCeagle2013

Member since Apr 2013

333 posts

Posted on 9/25/24 at 4:03 pm to LegendInMyMind

NHC now predicting 130mph at the 24 mark. 131mph is a category 4

Posted by slackster

Houston

Member since Mar 2009

91838 posts

Posted on 9/25/24 at 4:03 pm to lsuman25

quote:
Some of the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices, particular DTOPS, respond to this environment by indicating at least a 90 percent chance of a 35-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast now shows an intensity of 115 kt (Category 4) at 24 hours, which is mirrored by several of the regional hurricane models and the SHIPS guidance. It should be noted that additional strengthening is possible beyond 24 hours before Helene makes landfall Thursday evening.

shite

Posted by TripleBarrelBluff1

Sin City

Member since Aug 2024

2430 posts

Posted on 9/25/24 at 4:03 pm to LegendInMyMind

Yeah, you won't catch me at a festival these days, for this and 1000 other reasons.

Posted by NorthEndZone

Member since Dec 2008

14297 posts

Posted on 9/25/24 at 4:03 pm to lsuman25

Yeah. The NHC pros believe the models will be at least somewhat accurate on intensity.

And they upped the surge peak to 15-20. Geez.

quote:
The NHC intensity forecast now shows an intensity of 115 kt (Category 4) at
24 hours, which is mirrored by several of the regional hurricane
models and the SHIPS guidance. It should be noted that additional
strengthening is possible beyond 24 hours before Helene makes
landfall Thursday evening.

This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 4:07 pm

2 ...

Posted by back9Tiger

Island Coconut Salesman

Member since Nov 2005

17959 posts

Posted on 9/25/24 at 4:04 pm to keks tadpole

Oh for fricks sake!

Posted by SlidellCajun

Slidell la

Member since May 2019

16402 posts

Posted on 9/25/24 at 4:04 pm to VCeagle2013

Not seeing that in any of the intensity models

LINK

2 ...

Posted by gaetti15

Member since Apr 2013

15295 posts

Posted on 9/25/24 at 4:05 pm to SlidellCajun

quote:
Not seeing that in any of the intensity models

that's from 00z earlier this morning/late last night

Posted by Roll Tide Ravens

Birmingham, AL

Member since Nov 2015

51709 posts

Posted on 9/25/24 at 4:08 pm to CuseTiger

4 PM CDT Advisory

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HELENE STRENGTHENING...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 86.6W
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 4:08 pm

3 ...

Posted by Bobby OG Johnson

Member since Apr 2015

33491 posts

Posted on 9/25/24 at 4:09 pm to Roll Tide Ravens

Posted by LegendInMyMind

Member since Apr 2019

75135 posts

Posted on 9/25/24 at 4:11 pm to NorthEndZone

Those surge forecasts are sobering.

They have the old saying, "Hide from wind, run from water." for a reason. If you are in any of these areas and you do not have gills......leave.

Posted by Oates Mustache

Member since Oct 2011

26630 posts

Posted on 9/25/24 at 4:12 pm to Roll Tide Ravens

Holy shite, the 4pm update has a TS over Nashville. Has that ever happened this far inland?

2 ...

Posted by slackster

Houston

Member since Mar 2009

91838 posts

Posted on 9/25/24 at 4:12 pm to SlidellCajun

quote:
Not seeing that in any of the intensity models

Those aren’t the only intensity models the NHC uses.

Posted by Funky Tide 8

Bayou Chico

Member since Feb 2009

56861 posts

Posted on 9/25/24 at 4:14 pm to Oates Mustache

quote:
Holy shite, the 4pm update has a TS over Nashville. Has that ever happened this far inland?

Harvey made it up there.

Posted by Itismemc

Member since Nov 2008

4794 posts

Posted on 9/25/24 at 4:15 pm to Oates Mustache

quote:

Holy shite, the 4pm update has a TS over Nashville.

gonna be firing chairs off the roof like Mogan Wallen

Posted by Dire Wolf

bawcomville

Member since Sep 2008

40342 posts

Posted on 9/25/24 at 4:16 pm to Roll Tide Ravens

Far from the biggest concern but Atlanta is going to be a shite show

Posted by lsumailman61

Gulf Shores

Member since Oct 2006

7968 posts

Posted on 9/25/24 at 4:16 pm to slackster

Catastrophic winds and surge are horrifying words on that update. Prayers to our friends in the Big Bend

Posted by tiger91

In my own little world

Member since Nov 2005

40230 posts

Posted on 9/25/24 at 4:17 pm to Adajax

Sheesh. Good luck.