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2
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:47 am to Chad504boy
sometimes I can't hold my tongue. I shouldn't have started shite this late into the game. sorry
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 10:33 am
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:49 am to Chad504boy
quote:
that's an extremely disingenuous response to a very valid criticism.
It’s not a good criticism for exactly this reason:
quote:
90% of the population are absorbing the most basic of information given.
IMO, the cone is the distilled down reliability of the NHC forecast that is good for general public consumption.
It shows that despite all of that storm to storm variability (that you want incorporated, but undoubtedly do not have a good way to quantify and depict), the NHC is very good at producing a reliable hurricane track using all tools available.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:50 am to rds dc
The current track looks to be more Panacea/Crawfordville/Tallahassee than Tampa, although Tampa/St. Pete will be on the bad side of the approach.
I guess there are a couple of wobbles left, but this also looks to be a hurricane for South Georgia and a tropical storm for Atlanta.
I guess there are a couple of wobbles left, but this also looks to be a hurricane for South Georgia and a tropical storm for Atlanta.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:52 am to Ace Midnight
quote:
and a tropical storm for Atlanta.
They might get a hurricane...
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:52 am to SippyCup
quote:
I'm here now picking up some outdoor furniture but lets not pretend some tropical storm winds and maybe a cat 1 gust is going to take down anything built in Florida in the past 15 years.
But the track where it is going has a lot of older structures. When we responded to Madison after Idalia there were a lot of damaged older homes and LOTS of mobile homes.
The big bend may have the lowest population but it has some of the poorest areas of Florida (off the coast a few miles).
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:52 am to Ace Midnight
100!
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:53 am to Turnblad85
quote:
Please stop criticizing the NHC. They are the very bestest at their job without exception. There is no room for improvement. To critique their methodology is blasphemy.. We must accept that the billions we give to noaa to tell us that mowing our grass is the reason hurricanes are getting "bad" is money that couldn't possibly be better spent elsewhere. To ask for better performance per monies spent is ridiculous and could seriously hurt some feelings. Always just be satisfied with the status quo.
---nhc bootlickers
I've observed posters raging at the NHC for years in these threads and I will never understand it
What motivates this? Is it just weird backlash to people who claim the NHC is a competent government entity (which it is, of course)?
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:54 am to Turnblad85
quote:
Turnblad85
Just shut up. You've proven time and time and time again that you have no idea what you are talking about.
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 9:54 am
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:54 am to Turnblad85
quote:
Please stop criticizing the NHC. They are the very bestest at their job without exception. There is no room for improvement. To critique their methodology is blasphemy.. We must accept that the billions we give to noaa to tell us that mowing our grass is the reason hurricanes are getting "bad" is money that couldn't possibly be better spent elsewhere. To ask for better performance per monies spent is ridiculous and could seriously hurt some feelings. Always just be satisfied with the status quo.
---nhc bootlickers
I don’t think there’s anything wrong with wanting NHC to continue to improve their forecasts. I believe that they themselves want to continue to make improvements to their forecasts. There are a lot of hard working people at NHC, and throughout the National Weather Service. That said, constantly complaining about the cone and forecasts here doesn’t do anything. If anyone here has questions, concerns, comments, etc. about NHC’s forecasts, then the most effective way to get those addressed is by contacting NHC directly. I doubt anyone at NHC is reading this thread, so just posting about it here isn’t going to accomplish anything.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:54 am to Turnblad85
quote:
Turnblad85
Can you fricktards turn it off for like 10 minutes? Exchange phone numbers or pass each other notes in study hall.
I'm trying to figure out if I need my all-weather jorts tomorrow.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:55 am to RummelTiger
quote:
They might get a hurricane...
True - this one has potential to be very strong at landfall.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:56 am to Choot em Tiger
quote:
Same here, Panama City.
As long as the storm stays east of Apalachicola FWB, Destin, 30A, PCB and PC should be fine.
Talking minimal storm surge and likely only tropical storm force wind gusts.
Biggest threat will be spin up tornados and flash flooding from localized heavy rain.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:56 am to Pettifogger
quote:
I've observed posters raging at the NHC for years in these threads and I will never understand it
What motivates this? Is it just weird backlash to people who claim the NHC is a competent government entity (which it is, of course)?
What people like that really want is a complete removal of personal responsibility and decision making from the equation. They want and expect to be told exactly what to do and when and how to do it.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:56 am to Cosmo
quote:yep good sign- RI has seemingly not started yet as apparently the Yucatán did a better job than expected in disrupting the organization process.
Still 981 mb on recon
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:58 am to Cosmo
quote:
Still 981 mb on recon
Just went to 979.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:58 am to Chad504boy
Even if we could get it down to a 40 mile zone, we have to plan everything for public consumption to the lowest common denominator. Not only does it give some leeway for complex systems, but, some will naively look at the track of the eye and ignore that hurricane force winds and surge will have effects far reaching from that point. Remember we are dealing with tide pod eaters.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:58 am to otowntiger
quote:
yep good sign- RI has seemingly not started yet as apparently the Yucatán did a better job than expected in disrupting the organization process.
Ehh, we now officially have a hurricane.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 9:59 am
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:59 am to tide06
Helene is now a Cat. 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 80 mph.
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