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Started By
Message
re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:22 am to tiger91
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:22 am to tiger91
quote:
I’m in no way affected by this other than not taking what was a hopeful trip to the beach.
Same here. Our trip to Navarre was cancelled after heavy consideration. A slight jog west was to much to gamble with.
2
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:24 am to Chad504boy
quote:
then why even exist.
To depict how good nhc has been at track forecast.
As forecasting tools have improved over the years, they’ve gotten it almost as narrow as your needle dick.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:25 am to FutureMikeVIII
Looks like 978mb on the most recent drop in the eye.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:25 am to 850SaintsGator
quote:
I heard this was because of the earth’s cooling system- it sucks all the heat from the tropics and pushes it over the cold Atlantic Ocean - and while the storm is doing its northern path, all the heat in the surrounding areas get sucked in too…and thus we have great weather for a few days
Even though some move through in the heat of summer and the heat after sucks with no power, I contend you will never see a sky as beautiful as the one right after a hurricane moves through. It like they vacuum out everything and it’s crystal clear.
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 9:26 am
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:26 am to 850SaintsGator
quote:
heard this was because of the earth’s cooling system- it sucks all the heat from the tropics and pushes it over the cold Atlantic Ocean - and while the storm is doing its northern path, all the heat in the surrounding areas get sucked in too…and thus we have great weather for a few days
Zeta hit late October and was zinged out by a cold front. We had temps in the 60s after it hit compared to the usual 90+ and breezy.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:26 am to slackster
quote:
The cone is there to bait the idiots and every thread proves how well it works.
NHC is free to do things how ever they choose to.
But that in no way means they do things the most logical way or there are not ways to improve how they do things.
How relevant is the previous 5 years of statistical data to the width of a cone vs the confidence you have in this particular storm. Every system is different. Why have the same width of a cone for a storm that you are 99.9999% certain it's going to hit within a certain 40 mile radius. Why would they not give themselves the needed flexibility of having a bigger cone for a storm with much more uncertain probabilities of how it will play out.
The safety of the people is most important. You want to give people the best information possible. How it is now, is very very stupid.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:28 am to FutureMikeVIII
quote:
To depict how good nhc has been at track forecast.
each storm system is different. Different factors and different probabilities go in to each system.
I don't need to see an average goodness showing off of how small their cone is for a particular system if there are outlying factors that make this cone pretty fricking shitty in reality.
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 9:34 am
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:30 am to Chad504boy
quote:
each storm system is different. Different factors and different probabilities go in to each system. I don't need to see an average goodness showing off of our small their cone is for a particular system if there are outlying factors that make this cone pretty fricking shitty in reality.
Then look at the ensembles and read the text outputs, genius.
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 9:31 am
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:30 am to Chad504boy
quote:
Chad504boy
For questions and comments about National Hurricane Center forecasts and operations, including media requests and visitor information, please contact our Public Affairs Officer at NHC.Public.Affairs@noaa.gov
If you prefer to mail them a letter, their address is:
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, FL, 33165
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:30 am to LegendInMyMind
Pro Tip - Book a hotel now that is outside of the storm path and have the reservation starts 2-3 days after the storm hits.
Make sure you can cancel without penalty if you end up not needing it..
If your power goes out, it's a lot easier to deal with it for a day or two when you know you have relief coming soon..
Make sure you can cancel without penalty if you end up not needing it..
If your power goes out, it's a lot easier to deal with it for a day or two when you know you have relief coming soon..
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:34 am to Tiger Ike
How bad are they projecting it to get in Navarre? My best friend lives in that area
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:36 am to MasterAbe1
Not bad at all
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:36 am to LegendInMyMind
Yeah 979 now!
That’s low at this stage and it hasn’t really started its March into the GOM.
It’s a wide system too. Impact from wind, water /surge and tornado could be pretty widespread coastal and inland. They’re expecting some flooding as far north as North Carolina.
So thankful that we aren’t being cautioned here in Louisiana but really sorry for those that have to deal with this thing.
That’s low at this stage and it hasn’t really started its March into the GOM.
It’s a wide system too. Impact from wind, water /surge and tornado could be pretty widespread coastal and inland. They’re expecting some flooding as far north as North Carolina.
So thankful that we aren’t being cautioned here in Louisiana but really sorry for those that have to deal with this thing.
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 10:22 am
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:36 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Looks like 978mb on the most recent drop in the eye.
And 76 knot winds at flight level. Based on those readings and the radar showing a partially closed eye, hurricane at next advisory is almost certain.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:37 am to rds dc
any concern about a low forming in the Caribbean early next week that the GFS shows?
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:37 am to FutureMikeVIII
quote:
Then look at the ensembles and read the text outputs, genius.
that's an extremely disingenuous response to a very valid criticism. 90% of the population are absorbing the most basic of information given. You know, they continue to evolve the rules of the graph. Its not written in stone how they can do things.
Again, if someone has to read texts that the cone is shitty then there's no reason for the cone. The cone should be flexible to the confidence in the forecast and factors of each system.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:37 am to MasterAbe1
quote:
How bad are they projecting it to get in Navarre? My best friend lives in that area
Navarre shouldn’t have many issues. That area will be on the west side so the wind will be blowing off-shore (so not pushing water inland). It’ll be windy and rainy at times, but there shouldn’t be major impacts barring some significant shift in the projected track to the west (which is unlikely).
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 9:39 am
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:38 am to Chad504boy
because if they give a bigger cone, people will piss, moan and complain, like you are, that nothing happened to them.
you see it now with severe weather outbreaks - they notify and warn, and people act on those warnings - but when they don't get a direct hit on their location. a;; they do is bitch at how "over blown" the situation was - especially if they close schools from it.
you see it every single severe weather thread.
you see it now with severe weather outbreaks - they notify and warn, and people act on those warnings - but when they don't get a direct hit on their location. a;; they do is bitch at how "over blown" the situation was - especially if they close schools from it.
you see it every single severe weather thread.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:43 am to Chad504boy
quote:
Again, if someone has to read texts that the cone is shitty then there's no reason for the cone. The cone should be flexible to the confidence in the forecast and factors of each system.
What would you like for us to do about it?
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:44 am to jordan21210
quote:
Zeta hit late October and was zinged out by a cold front. We had temps in the 60s after it hit compared to the usual 90+ and breezy.
Zeta was crazy for a few reasons.
1) The RI offshore was Opal like
2) The backend of the storm was actually just as bad as the forward quadrant
3) If she werent moving like 50mph, NOLA was actually dead in the water. Literally no one left
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