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Started By
Message
re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN
Posted on 9/25/24 at 10:01 am to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 9/25/24 at 10:01 am to LegendInMyMind
A respected poster on Storm2k ran a SLOSH this morning:
If you are anywhere close to this area, you need to leave. That would be a Katrina type surge and you don't want to stick around for that.
Link: Storm2k post by WXMAN (halfway down the page)
quote:
I was running SLOSH this morning. A large Cat 3 moving into Apalachee Bay from the south or SSW would produce a 30 ft surge, not 10-15. Forward speed 25 mph at landfall.
If you are anywhere close to this area, you need to leave. That would be a Katrina type surge and you don't want to stick around for that.
Link: Storm2k post by WXMAN (halfway down the page)
1
Posted on 9/25/24 at 10:03 am to BigBro
quote:
Forward speed 25 mph at landfall.
that would be 10 hours or less from landfall to the Atlanta area longitude.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 10:03 am to tide06
quote:
Biggest threat will be spin up tornados and flash flooding from localized heavy rain.
Francines eye came over my house. I don't remember hearing of a single tornado being spun up. I wonder the reason for that.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 10:03 am to Chad504boy
The black line that bisects the center of the cone cross-sectionally is the spot with the highest probability that the storm system will be in. The further that you go perpendicularly away from the black line the lower the probability that the storm will be in that spot.
As you get too far away from the black line the probability has decreased so much that the possibility of the storm being there is very small.
The cone does two things then:
1. It sets a boundary for where some reasonable reality of where the storm might be.....based upon history and other factors.
2. It warns people who have no concept about math (like many posters in this thread) that if they are in the cone that they should watch their asses.
As you get too far away from the black line the probability has decreased so much that the possibility of the storm being there is very small.
The cone does two things then:
1. It sets a boundary for where some reasonable reality of where the storm might be.....based upon history and other factors.
2. It warns people who have no concept about math (like many posters in this thread) that if they are in the cone that they should watch their asses.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 10:05 am to Roll Tide Ravens
10 AM CDT Advisory
BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
...HELENE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND FLOODING RAINS TO A LARGE PORTION OF FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 86.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
...HELENE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND FLOODING RAINS TO A LARGE PORTION OF FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 86.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
Posted on 9/25/24 at 10:05 am to Roll Tide Ravens
NHC now has the winds reach 125 mph sustained prior to landfall.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 10:05 am to Turnblad85
Can we please stop debating the rights/wrongs of the NHC here -- NOTHING will come of it and it annoys the frick out of everyone else not in the argument?
Further posts regarding the bitching and moaning will be deleted.
Further posts regarding the bitching and moaning will be deleted.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 10:06 am to Tiger Ike
quote:
Our trip to Navarre was cancelled after heavy consideration.
When were you supposed to start your trip?
Navarre will be fine other than some rain. It will be beautiful from Saturday onward.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 10:07 am to Saintsisit
East of the eye wall is most favorable conditions for tornados
Posted on 9/25/24 at 10:07 am to Saintsisit
quote:
Francines eye came over my house. I don't remember hearing of a single tornado being spun up. I wonder the reason for that.
Francine wasn't forecast to be a big tornado producer. It just wasn't the type of storm to produce a lot, and there was a minimal environment conducive for tornadoes. That environment was primarily associated with a warm front to the NE of the storm.
Barrel was the exact opposite, and the Shreveport area was in the perfect spot.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 10:13 am to rds dc
Posted on 9/25/24 at 10:14 am to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 9/25/24 at 10:19 am to Riseupfromtherubble
I'm aware, just don't remember hearing of any in Metairie/Orleans or the North Shore.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 10:19 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Heads Up to anyone living or anyone with relatives/friends living from north of Jacksonville to south of Charleston. You/they may not be paying as close attention since this is a 'Gulf' storm.
Tornado threat has been posted as HIGH (second highest - potential for MANY tornadoes).
People in these areas need to have a way to get warnings (smartphone/TV) and have a safe room in the interior of home to take shelter should a quick spin-up tornado threaten them.
Also, they should be in an area of their home that is least likely to have a tree fall on it based on having E, SE, and S winds.
Link to NWS Jacksonville Threat maps
Tornado threat has been posted as HIGH (second highest - potential for MANY tornadoes).
People in these areas need to have a way to get warnings (smartphone/TV) and have a safe room in the interior of home to take shelter should a quick spin-up tornado threaten them.
Also, they should be in an area of their home that is least likely to have a tree fall on it based on having E, SE, and S winds.
Link to NWS Jacksonville Threat maps
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 10:20 am
Posted on 9/25/24 at 10:20 am to SippyCup
quote:
When were you supposed to start your trip?
Navarre will be fine other than some rain. It will be beautiful from Saturday onward.
We were supposed to leave today and stay through Sunday.
Hard to justify spending money on vacation that will keep us indoors for 50% of the stay. Most likely rip tides will be bad, and the shoreline littered with sea debris.
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 10:21 am
Posted on 9/25/24 at 10:23 am to NorthEndZone
quote:
People in these areas need to have a way to get warnings (smartphone/TV) and have a safe room in the interior of home to take shelter should a quick spin-up tornado threaten them.
Also, they should be in an area of their home that is least likely to have a tree fall on it based on having E, SE, and S winds.
Also, you're not likely to get much advanced warning for these tornadoes. That is of most concern and threat if you will be driving.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 10:24 am to Saintsisit
quote:
I'm aware, just don't remember hearing of any in Metairie/Orleans or the North Shore.
Pretty sure it was the direction of the wind in the lower bands coming onshore and the direction of the upper level sheer that kept the tornado threat at bay.
The direction and the strength of the sheer inhibited tornado genesis.
Posted on 9/25/24 at 10:26 am to Roll Tide Ravens
did that fricker make a jog Left?
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 10:27 am
Posted on 9/25/24 at 10:26 am to rds dc
It's a rough year in Tallahassee
Posted on 9/25/24 at 10:29 am to Thracken13
quote:
did that fricker make a jog Left?
I saw the edit, baw.
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