re: Fauci predicts millions of coronavirus cases in US and 100,000-200,000 deaths

You’re immune for a period of time and it’s different for different people. That’s with any virus. Some people are “immune” from day 1. They get exposed but never contract It or their bodies never react to the virus. The more people that get it, the more often this happens.

Because those “experts” have a boss who’s boss writes their checks and their “expert opinion” is not only that (an opinion) but also slanted to fit his/her employers agenda you sheep.

Penrod - pencil me in for the “over” on 100k by year end.

Reason - I think the suburbs get a handle on this quickly and will have no trouble managing the curve.

But for the lower income urban areas, for every old person in Italy their is a poorly controlled diabetic here. Also throw in a slew of dialysis patients from drug use (drive around Lake Charles and start counting dialysis places). Sprinkle in some obesity and just general lack of education and I think the poorer parts of cities have a much harder time keeping this in check.

100,000-200,000 would put this lower per capita than the 1957 or 1968 flu pandemics and about twice a typical bad flu season.

I think this is a good estimate if we ended social distancing. If we keep social distancing though May, half die or less.

The suburbs will have this WAAY over. Everyone I know is “hanging out” because they all think “they’re fine”. And then they take this shite to their parents and boom virological bomb goes off.

There would have to be 10,000,000 infections to get that many deaths according to our own fatality numbers. Are we saying that’s going to happen?

10,000,000 is actaully a pretty low number.

Which means he expects the mortality rate to go way down.

That's still less deaths than the study the Dallas County judge used to white knight himself and his orders predicted for Texas alone. At the time he posted it was predicting around 400,000 deaths in Texas using Texas duel social distancing and selective shutdowns. It may have been less, but it was highest estimate I have seen during this and almost pushing for a China solution with scare tactics. It was also started by a few ex employees of some tech companies and a state rep from Alaska. I never heard of any of them before. It was a joke for him to use that study as justification.

Fauci's estimate seems closer to this study & not nearly as extreme as one used by Dallas County - https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections


Texas's biggest problem right now is testing. They had been on a good pace until this past week. Now nearly same number as Louisiana with 6 times the population. As of yesterday Collin county had performed only 665 tests for a population over 1 million. County's positive rate is nearly 18% of those tested. They are still testing most likely while positives jumped from 31 to 118 this past week. I think they are waiting on the new rapid test from Abbot labs to increase testing, but orders don't start shipping until April 1st and who knows who is first in line and will be limited at first.

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You just can't make this shite up. Folks are still clamoring to "it's just the flu". Wow.

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Well if it takes years to infect millions, it's actually not as bad as the flu.

It's simple math. Cases are growing daily in the US at 20% and deaths are growing at 29%.

At best it will take 30 days to get those daily growth rates down to close to zero and that is in a really favorable scenario.

Take your current numbers of 125K cases and 2K deaths and run a 30 day calculation assuming the daily growth rate for deaths steps down 1% to 2% every 3 days from 29% to 1%. Mathematically, there will be 100K to 200K dead at that point.