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re: Deep South winter storm and arctic outbreak - Jan. 20-23 timeframe

Posted on 1/15/25 at 8:42 pm to
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66950 posts
Posted on 1/15/25 at 8:42 pm to
Got my grocery delivery order set up for tomorrow.

Ready to make some milk sandwiches..
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
15288 posts
Posted on 1/15/25 at 8:45 pm to
quote:

Ready to make some milk sandwiches.


Upgrade to titty milk and you are cooking with peanut oil
Posted by chRxis
None of your fricking business
Member since Feb 2008
27907 posts
Posted on 1/15/25 at 9:15 pm to
for those of us that are weather retarded, what's all those fancy gifs mean? there's too much to look at at one time
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66950 posts
Posted on 1/15/25 at 9:28 pm to
Each little gif represents one of the multiple weather models forecasting the upcoming weather.
Generally, meterologists will sort of get an "ensemble" or a mashup of all of those models to come up with the official forecast.


Think of the spaghetti models predicting where a hurricane is heading, where they will sort of average all of the models out
Posted by CaptainJ47
Gonzales
Member since Nov 2007
7795 posts
Posted on 1/15/25 at 9:58 pm to
Nearly all… the numbers look like only 31 of 50 show snow. That is only 62%. Of those 31, 16 have 1 inch or less. So 15 of them or only 30% have any appreciable form of snow. I know everyone is ready for the snow wishcasting over here but let’s not act like this is a certainty.
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
87979 posts
Posted on 1/15/25 at 10:14 pm to
Who has been acting like it’s a certainty? People like you are just as bad as the wishcasters.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75069 posts
Posted on 1/15/25 at 10:16 pm to
quote:

Nearly all… the numbers look like only 31 of 50 show snow. That is only 62%. Of those 31, 16 have 1 inch or less. So 15 of them or only 30% have any appreciable form of snow. I know everyone is ready for the snow wishcasting over here but let’s not act like this is a certainty.

At an 8 day range for a Winter weather setup in the Gulf Coast region that's actually pretty decent model support.
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
15737 posts
Posted on 1/15/25 at 10:17 pm to
00z GFS operational still not keen on anything happening despite a good number of ensembles showing precip
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
5039 posts
Posted on 1/15/25 at 10:24 pm to
Brings the cold, but no precipitation
Posted by chRxis
None of your fricking business
Member since Feb 2008
27907 posts
Posted on 1/15/25 at 10:39 pm to
quote:

00z GFS operational still not keen on anything happening despite a good number of ensembles showing precip

so basically, all of this uproar and shite, for nothing...

about right...
Posted by Lsuhoohoo
Member since Sep 2007
102303 posts
Posted on 1/15/25 at 10:46 pm to
DEATH TO THE GFS! We shall not belive it's sinful lies.


Posted by Byrdybyrd05
Member since Nov 2014
26542 posts
Posted on 1/15/25 at 10:52 pm to
Posted by Turnblad85
Member since Sep 2022
5518 posts
Posted on 1/15/25 at 11:12 pm to
quote:

all of this uproar and shite, for nothing.




meteorology is basically professional bait and switching.
Posted by GeorgeTheGreek
Sparta, Greece
Member since Mar 2008
69146 posts
Posted on 1/15/25 at 11:29 pm to
Already hearing that teachers are pushing for school cancellations. Unbelievable.
Posted by Tr33fiddy
Hog Jaw, Arkansas (it exists)
Member since Aug 2023
1971 posts
Posted on 1/15/25 at 11:32 pm to
My son just had his first half a day of school since the last event. I was ready to hunt down that principal.
Posted by RBTiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2011
9183 posts
Posted on 1/15/25 at 11:38 pm to
BR Temps forecast near Freezing or below from Mon/Tues Midnight to Wednesday 10:00am nearly 36 hours pretty big deal for here.
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51688 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 12:04 am to
quote:

so basically, all of this uproar and shite, for nothing... about right...

Like I’ve said all along, don’t live and die by one run of one model. With the potential event still several days away, the models are going to change multiple times.
Posted by Cleary Rebels
Member since Oct 2024
2899 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 12:24 am to
I bet you are - like they make those decisions - if y’all’s arse wouldn’t be a sue happy society, then school would go on as normal. One bus wreck and the system will be sued into oblivion.
And as if no other jobs are taking about snow and not working - LOL
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
23213 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 1:15 am to
quote:

BR Temps forecast near Freezing or below from Mon/Tues Midnight to Wednesday 10:00am nearly 36 hours pretty big deal for here.

That’ll be a problem for yall without salt to keep the roads from icing.
Posted by Govt Tide
Member since Nov 2009
9568 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 3:11 am to
Safe to say that if tonight's 0z run of the CMC (Canadian model) were to verify much of the Deep South would have to close shop for the rest of the week.

Major snowstorm with anywhere from 5 to 12 inches from a line running along a line running from Shreveport to Jackson to Montgomery to Charleston, SC line and north of that line. Also a massive ice storm south of there all the way down to the Gulf Coast itself from Port Authur, TX east to Jacksonville, FL and areas in between.

That's just with the main wave on Tuesday. The CMC follows that up with a another major hit of ice acould 36 to 48 hours later.

Case in point...Starkville, MS gets 14.7 inches of snow followed by 1.03 inches of freezing rain less than 48 hours later.

The ice accumulation map nearly pegs out in parts of South Georgia where it shows as high as 2.81 inches of freezing rain just southwest of Savannah.


0z CMC (Canadian) accumulated snowfall

0z CMC Freezing Rain accumulations
This post was edited on 1/16/25 at 3:16 am
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