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re: Deep South winter storm and arctic outbreak - Jan. 20-23 timeframe

Posted on 1/16/25 at 3:27 am to
Posted by PetroBabich
Donetsk Oblast
Member since Apr 2017
5136 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 3:27 am to
It's hard to discern what's weather nerd hysterics and what's really going to happen.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24584 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:09 am to
TWC is now saying just snow for BR.
1-3” during the day and 1” Tuesday night.
Posted by jmcwhrter
Member since Nov 2012
7970 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:24 am to
quote:

TWC is now saying just snow for BR.
1-3” during the day and 1” Tuesday night.


Lafayette they're (TWC) saying 3" of snow.. meanwhile the GFS has completely abandoned wintry mix altogether
This post was edited on 1/16/25 at 4:25 am
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50633 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:32 am to
frick the GFS. Probably hacked by the Chinese or something. Trump needs to MGFSGA.
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
15737 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:43 am to
GFS operational is just living in denial

Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50633 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:55 am to
I’ll take a number 14 and 30, please.
This post was edited on 1/16/25 at 4:56 am
Posted by soccer dad
God’s Country
Member since Nov 2019
202 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:58 am to
18 has more ice predicted than 14, just sayin
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50633 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 5:03 am to
I want snow though.
Posted by whoa
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2017
5922 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 5:11 am to
My weather app is showing snowing/ice Tuesday-Friday in BR.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43293 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 5:38 am to
GFS operational is for sure an outlier. Would be a major win for it though but just too much of a signal from all other models and ensembles
Posted by soccer dad
God’s Country
Member since Nov 2019
202 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 5:38 am to
Oh gotcha. I thought you wanted chaos and suffering.
Posted by Allthatfades
Mississippi
Member since Aug 2014
9347 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 5:45 am to
So I guess the question is which one caves, the GFS or the Euro
Posted by soccer dad
God’s Country
Member since Nov 2019
202 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 5:57 am to
quote:

So I guess the question is which one caves, the GFS or the Euro


Just my .02, I’m not a pro-met or anything, just been following this stuff for a long time. While there’s hundreds of weather models out there to look at, the big 5 are the Canadian, GFS, UKmet, Euro, and the ICON. As is stands now it’s 4 vs 1, the GFS stands alone. Euro did nudge towards GFS slightly last run but still has us getting some snow. If GFS wins out it wouldn’t have been the 1st time a single model sniffed something out that the other big guys missed, but as it stands now I’d say we're in for some type of frozen precipitation down south LA. Also of note, most of the GFS ensembles are showing ice/snow, it’s just the GFS operational that’s given up on the wintry mix the last 2-3 runs.


edit - I should’ve waited for the 06z runs. Euro just caved to the GFS, showed no storm / precip, just cold frigid air now.
This post was edited on 1/16/25 at 6:03 am
Posted by SteelerBravesDawg
Member since Sep 2020
43337 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 6:01 am to
Savannah forecast to get 5-8" of snow.

3 inches up here.
Posted by bubbz
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2006
23117 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 6:23 am to
Euro showing all snow for BR Tuesday/Wednesday - Canadian model holding the line with the doomsday scenario for BR with significant freezing rain.
Posted by cypresstiger
The South
Member since Aug 2008
14038 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 6:23 am to
I was ready to hunt down that principal.
—These days, that’s probably not what you want to put in writing.
Posted by DownshiftAndFloorIt
Here
Member since Jan 2011
72066 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 6:28 am to
Snow chains [on] / off

Posted by jmcwhrter
Member since Nov 2012
7970 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 6:38 am to
KLFY (Lafayette) just pissed on the wintry mix forecast - basically saying we will be dry.

Bold move
Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
12640 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 6:46 am to
quote:

KLFY (Lafayette) just pissed on the wintry mix forecast - basically saying we will be dry. Bold move


They might pull a WBRZ where the “Dr” Meteorologist said it wasn’t snowing outside despite viewer videos being sent to the station that said otherwise.

KLFY’s strategy right now:

This post was edited on 1/16/25 at 6:53 am
Posted by CaptainJ47
Gonzales
Member since Nov 2007
7795 posts
Posted on 1/16/25 at 6:47 am to
I guess I am confused as to where my math was wrong. Help me out. “Nearly all” in my mind isn’t 62%. 62% is a coin flip. I think exacerbating the fear factor isn’t helpful to people. Just say that there is a coin flip chance and a 30% chance we get an inch of snow or more.
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