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Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 3/30/20 at 12:36 pm to fightin tigers
Posted on 3/30/20 at 12:36 pm to fightin tigers
my 5-10 days is from test positive, not from symptom onset.
1
Posted on 3/30/20 at 12:38 pm to S1C EM
quote:
I thought this was the area that was touted as well over 80%? You're only seeing asymptomatic to mild cases as 10-15%?
The model the Department of Health is using is of a total infected population:
80% asymptomatic/Mild not necessitating medical care
20% symptomatic and need medical attention, within this number
4% need hospitalization
1% need critical intervention
This post was edited on 3/30/20 at 12:39 pm
Posted on 3/30/20 at 12:40 pm to S1C EM
quote:
I thought this was the area that was touted as well over 80%? You're only seeing asymptomatic to mild cases as 10-15%?
80% asymptomatic is one of the biggest myths about this thing.
We're seeing like 15% true asymptomatic so far, but it will grow as testing ramps to basically include everyone. Right now very few asymptomatic folks are getting tested.
15% truly asympotmatic
60-65% manageable cold or light flu symptoms
15-20% bad flu-like symptoms and trouble breathing (need treatment, likely can do-so from home)
5% critical symptoms requiring intense medical care in the hospital (smaller % needing vents)
These numbers change based on market/region due to varying population age and health.
This post was edited on 3/30/20 at 12:43 pm
Posted on 3/30/20 at 12:41 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
The model the Department of Health is using is of a total infected population:
80% asymptomatic/Mild not necessitating medical care
20% symptomatic and need medical attention, within this number
4% need hospitalization
1% need critical intervention
Very close to what we're seeing, which makes sense.
To be clear, I called all needing inpatient hospitalization "critical". That doesn't necessarily mean vents or you're saying is the 1% (which I agree with)
Posted on 3/30/20 at 12:42 pm to TheCaterpillar
I find this interesting
The asian flu of 1957 killed 70k americans, equivalent to 120k today
The hong kong flu of 1968 killed 100k americans, equivalent to 160k today
Those are within the upper worst case range of this pandemic, and we are shutting everything down
I had never even heard of the asian and hong kong flu pandemics until looking them up during this ordeal.
Not trying to make a statement on right or wrong, just interesting in seeing pandemics that happened only 50-60 years with 100k+ american deaths arent even really common knowledge, now has us shutting down everything
The asian flu of 1957 killed 70k americans, equivalent to 120k today
The hong kong flu of 1968 killed 100k americans, equivalent to 160k today
Those are within the upper worst case range of this pandemic, and we are shutting everything down
I had never even heard of the asian and hong kong flu pandemics until looking them up during this ordeal.
Not trying to make a statement on right or wrong, just interesting in seeing pandemics that happened only 50-60 years with 100k+ american deaths arent even really common knowledge, now has us shutting down everything
Posted on 3/30/20 at 12:43 pm to Antonio Moss
Today numbers show that only 7.8% of the new test are coming back positive.
Only 21 more hospitalizations.
That's a bunch of good news.
What computers don't seem to have programmed in is the concept of "low hanging fruit". Some people, for what ever reason are more likely to get the disease. So there is some metric that says that ever new exposure is less likely to become a carrier.
eta: https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_7cb2af1c-6414-11ea-b729-93612370dd94.html
Only 21 more hospitalizations.
That's a bunch of good news.
What computers don't seem to have programmed in is the concept of "low hanging fruit". Some people, for what ever reason are more likely to get the disease. So there is some metric that says that ever new exposure is less likely to become a carrier.
eta: https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_7cb2af1c-6414-11ea-b729-93612370dd94.html
This post was edited on 3/30/20 at 12:44 pm
Posted on 3/30/20 at 12:45 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Very close to what we're seeing, which makes sense.
To be clear, I called all needing inpatient hospitalization "critical". That doesn't necessarily mean vents or you're saying is the 1% (which I agree with)
I don't think we are saying the same thing.
Of 100 infected people:
80 won't even need to see a doctor
16 will see a doctor and have a case not requiring hospitalization
4 will be hospitalized
1 will need ICU/critical intervention with the expectation that 75% that make it to this stage will die.
This post was edited on 3/30/20 at 12:48 pm
Posted on 3/30/20 at 12:53 pm to ell_13
Are you seriously coming back to hijack the damn thread again el? Damn it bro. Obviously you and every paying member here (lol) are more than welcome to take part but please don't derail this bitch with 10 pages of shite posting per hour like you did a couple weeks ago. You can easily state your opinion without trolling it up.
With that said, it's not our fault that our government has shut down the freaking country and in some cases it IS overkill. President Trump is going to use this disease as his reelection campaign so don't expect him to loosen the noose anytime soon. He is gonna milk this cow for all it's worth. I hope it gets him reelected too. Need more winning.
With that said, it's not our fault that our government has shut down the freaking country and in some cases it IS overkill. President Trump is going to use this disease as his reelection campaign so don't expect him to loosen the noose anytime soon. He is gonna milk this cow for all it's worth. I hope it gets him reelected too. Need more winning.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 12:54 pm to lsupride87
quote:American individuality has produced a people who have never had much tolerance for death.
Not trying to make a statement on right or wrong, just interesting in seeing pandemics that happened only 50-60 years with 100k+ american deaths arent even really common knowledge, now has us shutting down everything
Now, less than ever.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 12:58 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
I don't think we are saying the same thing.
Of 100 infected people:
80 won't even need to see a doctor
16 will see a doctor and have a case not requiring hospitalization
4 will be hospitalized
1 will need ICU/critical intervention with the expectation that 75% that make it to this stage will die.
That's exactly what I'm saying.
You're just lumping in asymptomatic with the much larger population of people with light symptoms not requiring a doctor (light cold or flu symptoms included in that in every model I've seen). That's how people run with the 80% asymptomatic thing. It's just not true.
Your 16% is the heavy flu population that I said was 15-20%.
The 5% I used lumped your 4%+1%.
ETA:
quote:
80% asymptomatic/Mild not necessitating medical care
Is what you said. That is about at 15/65 split from what I've seen.
This post was edited on 3/30/20 at 12:59 pm
Posted on 3/30/20 at 1:02 pm to TheCaterpillar
Cat, my understanding from the Iceland results that have been released the last few days is that ~50% are truly asymptomatic.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 1:05 pm to AbuTheMonkey
quote:
Cat, my understanding from the Iceland results that have been released the last few days is that ~50% are truly asymptomatic.
One of the healthiest countries in the world
Obesity and COPD are huge issues with coronavirus and are likely at a fraction of the rate in Iceland as they are in the US.
They have unreal immune systems that are likely beating this thing in minor cases without the people knowing they have it.
ETA:
But we'll truly know the asymptomatic rate once we have antibody tests. It is likely pretty damn high.
This post was edited on 3/30/20 at 1:10 pm
Posted on 3/30/20 at 1:06 pm to Tiguar
quote:
my 5-10 days is from test positive, not from symptom onset.
There are people dying without even getting their results.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 1:06 pm to Commander Data
How goes it this morning CD?
Posted on 3/30/20 at 1:10 pm to fightin tigers
which is true, some people die and then test positive, but far more test positive, sit on a vent for a week or two, then succumb.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 1:14 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
That's exactly what I'm saying.
You're just lumping in asymptomatic with the much larger population of people with light symptoms not requiring a doctor (light cold or flu symptoms included in that in every model I've seen). That's how people run with the 80% asymptomatic thing. It's just not true.
Your 16% is the heavy flu population that I said was 15-20%.
The 5% I used lumped your 4%+1%
Good deal.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 1:16 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
quote:
Cat, my understanding from the Iceland results that have been released the last few days is that ~50% are truly asymptomatic.
One of the healthiest countries in the world
Obesity and COPD are huge issues with coronavirus and are likely at a fraction of the rate in Iceland as they are in the US.
They have unreal immune systems that are likely beating this thing in minor cases without the people knowing they have it.
ETA:
But we'll truly know the asymptomatic rate once we have antibody tests. It is likely pretty damn high.
Eh, Iceland is pretty fricking fat, especially for a Nordic country, and has a similar smoking rate. I think we'll end up in the 40 - 50% range as well when it's all said and done.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 1:20 pm to Lsut81
quote:
Which now that the CDC gave direction to use the cocktail, our percentages should dip
Wait, when did this come about?
Posted on 3/30/20 at 1:21 pm to Commander Data
Dude, it’s not “trolling” to point out failures in logic
Posted on 3/30/20 at 1:23 pm to SabiDojo
a reverse slippery-slope fallacy isnt pointing out the failures of anyones logic
This post was edited on 3/30/20 at 1:23 pm
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