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Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:31 am to fightin tigers
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:31 am to fightin tigers
quote:
How the hell does this math check out in your head?
Let me explain it like you are five years old. Also, let's take a case that has been published so it doesn't seem like I'm shitting numbers here. Mark Frilot's wife said he showed his first symptoms on March 6. By March 12, he was in the ICU and his wife posted on March 14th that he was on a ventilator. It isn't clear if the vent was done on the 12th, 13th, or 14th. So I'll just say that he went from first symptom to vent in 6-8 days.
So adding in the the fact that the average incubation period is 5-6 days, we could assume there is a good chance Frilot was exposed to the virus on or around February 29 or March 1. By March 12-14th he was on a vent. So his range from exposure to vent is very likely 11 to 14 days. We could expand that even further b/c some show symptoms as early as 1 day after exposure all the way up to 14 days. So if it can take someone to go 6-8 days from the first symptom to a ventilator, that means you can go from exposure to vent in 7 to 22 days.
1
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:36 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Yeah, our facilities are at ~17% positive rate on tens of thousands given.
Which is evidence of how full of shite people are about their symptoms.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:39 am to TheCaterpillar
(no message)
This post was edited on 8/9/25 at 3:45 pm
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:40 am to ashy larry
quote:
So if it can take someone to go 6-8 days from the first symptom to a ventilator, that means you can go from exposure to vent in 7 to 22 days
Yes. You are using a terrible case, but I do get that math.
For the peak to be 14-21 days you would need for more people to be getting infected today than a week ago.
Social distancing doesn't work in your math.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:41 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
We do know that likely 10-15% of the people who get this are asymptomatic or at least have such mild symptoms they assume they are healthy and it's just a headache or something like that.
I thought this was the area that was touted as well over 80%? You're only seeing asymptomatic to mild cases as 10-15%?
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:45 am to S1C EM
I definitely don’t think that’s 80%. The 80% is mild enough not to be hospitalized.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:49 am to LSU1018
quote:
I definitely don’t think that’s 80%. The 80% is mild enough not to be hospitalized.
So we wouldn't consider normal flu-like symptoms as mild for this? I could have sworn they were saying 80% mild, but maybe I've got that wrong.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:51 am to fightin tigers
quote:
For the peak to be 14-21 days you would need for more people to be getting infected today than a week ago.
Social distancing doesn't work in your math.
It isn't my math. I'm using projections from the people that do this for a living. They are saying 2-3 weeks. Honkus's link on page 956 showing the projected peaks has Louisiana's peak on April 10th. The date range where beds needed exceeds beds available is April 6th thru April 14th.
And you are assuming that social distancing is stopping the spread. It doesn't and it won't. It is simply slowing the spread. Each person that gets it at this stage is likely to give it to 2 or people hence the exponential growth. People are still working, grocery shopping, picking up take out, etc. It isn't hard to understand that the Rouse's cashier could be asymptomatic and therefore carelessly passing the virus to people via handing their groceries, money, etc. People are still buying gas and grabbing the pump handle and/or the door to go in the gas station. Chik Fil A has young healthy employees that may very well never show a symptom while carrying and spreading the virus. The virus may not spread via food, but we are certainly within 6' of the person at the drive-thru. They are handling your credit card, cash, etc.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 10:55 am to S1C EM
quote:
I could have sworn they were saying 80% mild, but maybe I've got that wrong.
When they are saying 80% have anywhere from no to mild symptoms, they are referring to people that are mild enough to not be hospitalized. So that ranges from no symptoms to someone with really bad flu symptoms that just aren't bad enough to need a hospital bed.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 11:07 am to ell_13
quote:
Jesus. There were people calling it “stressed” before any of this started. That’s not true either. Stressed means to the point where it’s ready to collapse. That’s not happening.
I know a hospital that had 2 surge crises before coronavirus hit and had to push people to another hospital. Stop pretending like you know anything.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 11:28 am to xxTIMMYxx
I know at least 300 that didn’t so... I love anecdotes too.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 11:29 am to xxTIMMYxx
The US has 100k more cases than France, yet France has as many deaths as the US. Yikes.
Rough numbers:
US cases 140k
US deaths 2,500
French cases 40k
French deaths 2,500
Rough numbers:
US cases 140k
US deaths 2,500
French cases 40k
French deaths 2,500
Posted on 3/30/20 at 11:31 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
The US has 100k more cases than France, yet France has as many deaths as the US. Yikes.
Which now that the CDC gave direction to use the cocktail, our percentages should dip
Posted on 3/30/20 at 11:45 am to danilo
Ha. Probably so...
Posted on 3/30/20 at 12:22 pm to bayoubengals88
Death is a lagging indicator. We will get there
Posted on 3/30/20 at 12:33 pm to hombreman9
quote:
Death is a lagging indicator. We will get there
How do you figure that?
Posted on 3/30/20 at 12:34 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
How do you figure that?
death usually takes 5-10 days from diagnosis, sometimes longer, sometimes shorter, but that's generally.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 12:35 pm to Tiguar
quote:
death usually takes 5-10 days from diagnosis, sometimes longer, sometimes shorter, but that's generally.
Yeah, but tests results are 4-10 days behind. Deaths can be reported almost immediately.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 12:35 pm to hombreman9
quote:
Death is a lagging indicator. We will get there
Sad to think that Louisiana's death count is at 185 right now, but something like 80% of the 385 on ventilators won't make it.
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