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re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:03 pm to
Posted by tigerskin
Member since Nov 2004
46744 posts
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:03 pm to
quote:


So our tests are mostly worthless?



Looks like study was out of China. And very few asymptomatic people around here getting tested.
Posted by jennBN
Member since Jun 2010
3250 posts
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:05 pm to
Update from California:

Things are actually improving some here. Keep in mind this is all anecdotal and may not be indicative of all areas in Ca. We have the outdoor tents open and more pts are being seen and sent back home before ever entering the ED proper. The shelter in place order and excessive media coverage seems to have encouraged people who are not severe to stay home and not seek face-to-face medical care. All personnel that work clinics and procedures are being allowed to stay home if they choose and will be called up if the surge hits. I don't know if this is the calm before the storm or if we have restricted movement soon enough to avoid the surge all together. Hoping for that. The supply issue is getting super scary. We need masks and gowns for more than just Covid and there is no end in sight for this shortage. Other supplies that are gone is sani-wipes, hand sanitizer, avagard (for surgery), goggles, face shields and most masks. I took Scruffy's advice and stepped away from screens today and do feel much better.
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
41133 posts
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:08 pm to
Most of that is good to hear
Posted by WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
15714 posts
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:09 pm to
quote:

My question for the medical people in here is do you guys have any reservations with something like this being rushed out so fast about the safety of it?


It was well studied and approved for Ebola so no

quote:

All three patients treated with remdesivir recovered, but they also reported significant gastrointestinal symptoms. Investigators also noticed elevated liver enzyme levels in their blood samples.


Patients with COVID are known to have elevated liver enzymes. So it may be to early to say if it was the virus or the medication in such a small sample size. Also the liver heals remarkably well. I’d take elevated liver enzymes if it kept me off a ventilator.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40230 posts
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:09 pm to
quote:

Maybe so, but that's not "early chloroquine therapy". If the drug actually does knock down the virus load to the point that your immune system can handle it, I personally would rather get it before they needed to paralyze me and ram a tube down my throat.


Oh absolutely but for those WITH a tube already in place, hopefully it would help.
Posted by OldManRiver
Prairieville, LA
Member since Jan 2005
7581 posts
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:17 pm to
So doing some reading around about Italy today, and I came across this article LINK. Included was a pretty nice chart breaking down every region, and what the numbers were in each. Translations are as follows
quote:

Ricoverati con sintomi - Recovering with symptoms

Terapia Intensiva - In intensive care

Isolamento domiciliare - In isolation at home

The column coloured green is the number who have recovered (dimessi guariti), the red column is for the number of deaths (deceduti) and orange is for the total number of cases since the outbreak began, including, current cases, deaths and recovered.

The grey column on the far right, titled tamponi is for the number of tests carried out.




Couple of thoughts

1) Lombardy makes up 55+% of all cases in Italy
2) In Lombardy, 33% of people tested are ill, outside of Lombardy is 14%
3) That shows 1851 people currently "In intensive care". Even if we assume that all of the 2158 dead were in "intensive care" as well, that is right at 4000 total.

Has Italy's entire health system been wrecked by 4000 unexpected ICU patients? Are these numbers way too low and we aren't being told the truth? Or is there an unbelievable amount of hype/fear that isn't really following the data?
Posted by The Boob
Member since Mar 2010
773 posts
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:18 pm to
If everyone is freaking out because they think this thing is so contagious and many of the cases are just false positives, that would be some pretty dark stuff...
Posted by WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
15714 posts
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:19 pm to
quote:

Has Italy's entire health system been wrecked by 4000 unexpected ICU patients?


Yes that will wreck a health system if concentrated in one area and you are not prepared. ICU patients require a lot of care. A lot of man hours in addition to modern technology. Once doctors start getting sick the capacity drops even lower.
Posted by CivilTiger83
Member since Dec 2017
2525 posts
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:23 pm to
quote:

Also...this mathematically doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Of the 500 million people worldwide who were infected by the Spanish Flu, between 50-100 million people died. That's a mortality rate of 13-20 percent. The only way the figure of 2.5% makes any sense is if you take into account the worldwide population of 1918-20 (1.8 billion) and divide that by the 500 million infected. Only then do you get a percentage anywhere close to the one cited in the link you posted.


You might want to check your facts. I posted the link previously. Take it up with Stanford... LINK

quote:

In the two years that this scourge ravaged the earth, a fifth of the world's population was infected. The flu was most deadly for people ages 20 to 40. This pattern of morbidity was unusual for influenza which is usually a killer of the elderly and young children. It infected 28% of all Americans (Tice). An estimated 675,000 Americans died of influenza during the pandemic, ten times as many as in the world war. Of the U.S. soldiers who died in Europe, half of them fell to the influenza virus and not to the enemy (Deseret News). An estimated 43,000 servicemen mobilized for WWI died of influenza (Crosby). 1918 would go down as unforgettable year of suffering and death and yet of peace. As noted in the Journal of the American Medical Association final edition of 1918:


quote:

The influenza virus had a profound virulence, with a mortality rate at 2.5% compared to the previous influenza epidemics, which were less than 0.1%. The death rate for 15 to 34-year-olds of influenza and pneumonia were 20 times higher in 1918 than in previous years (Taubenberger). People were struck with illness on the street and died rapid deaths. One anectode shared of 1918 was of four women playing bridge together late into the night. Overnight, three of the women died from influenza (Hoagg). Others told stories of people on their way to work suddenly developing the flu and dying within hours (Henig). One physician writes that patients with seemingly ordinary influenza would rapidly "develop the most viscous type of pneumonia that has ever been seen" and later when cyanosis appeared in the patients, "it is simply a struggle for air until they suffocate," (Grist, 1979). Another physician recalls that the influenza patients "died struggling to clear their airways of a blood-tinged froth that sometimes gushed from their nose and mouth," (Starr, 1976). The physicians of the time were helpless against this powerful agent of influenza.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105316 posts
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:28 pm to
Italian man getting a nosejob hides his positive status from doctors. Now faces 12 years in prison. LINK
Posted by CivilTiger83
Member since Dec 2017
2525 posts
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:28 pm to
quote:

Counter point from Stat News. He is getting considerably blowback from peers, esp for not discussing the SK data that contains testing of nearly 1 in every 200 citizens and a nCFR of 1%.


I do think if this virus is actually much more pervasive than we think and the true CFR is around 0.1%, we do need to start thinking about tradeoffs of these approaches vs the economic impact. Especially if we are able to develop effective treatments that lessen the number of patients in the ICU.
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
74218 posts
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:30 pm to
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:35 pm to
Kevin Durant tested positive for coronavirus, Durant tells @TheAthleticNBA @Stadium. Durant says he is feeling fine: "Everyone be careful, take care of yourself and quarantine. We're going to get through this."
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:38 pm to
Chicago Midway Airport (MDW), where the first coronavirus case at an ATC facility was announced today, has gone into ground stop. Not saying the two are linked but the weather in Chicago is nice out. LINK
This post was edited on 3/17/20 at 4:39 pm
Posted by uscpuke
Member since Jan 2004
6311 posts
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:45 pm to
quote:

Kevin Durant tested positive for coronavirus,


5000 people have tested positive. 1/4 happen to be celebrities. WTF
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105316 posts
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:45 pm to
Same pollution decline that was seen in China now being seen in Italy LINK
Posted by LouisianaLady
Member since Mar 2009
83035 posts
Posted on 3/17/20 at 5:07 pm to
quote:

5000 people have tested positive. 1/4 happen to be celebrities. WTF



I assume because they have the money/power to get a test even with mild-to-no symptoms. Idris Elba said on IG yesterday during his positive announcement that he had absolutely zero symptoms.

If they're running out of tests in areas, it seems weird for celebs to be getting tested with no symptoms but hell if I know. As others have mentioned, positive tests that result in a pretty easy recovery do at least help the stats.
This post was edited on 3/17/20 at 5:08 pm
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 3/17/20 at 5:08 pm to
ALL 50 STATES AND DC INFECTED

quote:

(@BNODesk)
BREAKING: West Virginia reports first case of coronavirus; all 50 U.S. states now have at least 1 case LINK
Posted by RollTide1987
Baltimore, MD
Member since Nov 2009
71163 posts
Posted on 3/17/20 at 5:10 pm to
quote:

You might want to check your facts.


I did check my facts. Live Science completely contradicts what Stanford put out:

quote:

In 1918, a strain of influenza known as Spanish flu caused a global pandemic, spreading rapidly and killing indiscriminately. Young, old, sick and otherwise-healthy people all became infected, and at least 10% of patients died.

Estimates vary on the exact number of deaths caused by the disease, but it is thought to have infected a third of the world's population and killed at least 50 million people, making it the deadliest pandemic in modern history. Although at the time it gained the nickname "Spanish flu," it's unlikely that the virus originated in Spain.


LINK

From the CDC's own website:

quote:

It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States.


LINK

If 500 million were infected, and at least 50 million died from the disease, that is a mortality rate of at least 13%. The only way the mortality rate could have been 2.5% in 1918, based on the numbers we have from the epidemic, is everyone on the planet would have had to have been infected.
This post was edited on 3/17/20 at 5:12 pm
Posted by wdhalgren
Member since May 2013
5331 posts
Posted on 3/17/20 at 5:18 pm to
It's a long thread I know but, as with most debates here, this has been hashed over earlier. There are definitions for naive case fatality rate, corrected cfr, infection fatality rate, population mortality rate, and probably more that I don't know about. The terms are sometimes confused or used loosely. It looks like the 2.5% represents an estimated population mortality rate from "Spanish flu".
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