re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

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Here’s the latest: cautious optimism.

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That has been going around this evening. I posted this on the poli board in response:

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It’s now believed that Covid-19 was in China much earlier than reported. Perhaps as early as mid October.

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This is an interesting theory and I've seen arguments for as early as September. However, a number of researchers have been reviewing ILINet & WHO-NREVSS data for the US and as of 3.13.20, there still wasn't strong evidence of a high volume undetected COVID-19 in the data. Also, the earliest sequence up on Nextstrain is from mid-Jan from Washington state. The Seattle Flu Study group has been looking into the data and hasn't been able to find anything before that mid-January case.

Of less certainty since it relies of info form China:

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This phylogeny shows an initial emergence in Wuhan, China, in Nov-Dec 2019 followed by sustained human-to-human transmission leading to sampled infections.

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LINK

One of the open source preprint papers out there on the ILI data - LINK

I'm not arguing against the theory that it has been around longer than originally thought. However, there is some research that points to the later timeline.

Nike just closed all stores... I’d imagine a lot of companies will follow suit

Apple and Nike... I’d imagine Starbucks is next to go

Thread on higher flu numbers

Additional info on flu spike in Nov / Dec

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I'm not arguing against the theory that it has been around longer than originally thought. However, there is some research that points to the later timeline

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I think we all want to believe this theory is true and it sounds reasonable. I honestly don't trust anyone's analysis of anything anymore. Too many vested interests. I'm going to try and found the source data and do some analysis of my own. I'm tired of seeing charts without links to source data.

Good morning sheep.

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Good morning sheep.

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The poliboard infestation of the OT is spreading.

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But how many of you have had friends, family, or yourselves that had coronavirus type symptoms but tested negative for flu?

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My 19-year-old daughter did (no pics). She went out with a few friends on the weekend of Feb. 22. On Tuesday night, Feb. 25, she called me and told me she felt terrible—body aches, fever, chills, dry cough. On the morning of Feb. 26, she went to the urgent care clinic. Flu test was negative, so they did blood work, which indicated that she definitely had a virus. Since all of her symptoms coincided with flu, they prescribed Xofluza, prednisone, and cough syrup with codeine. Daughter decided to come home from college to convalesce. (She is a diamond girl who normally works baseball games and had to call out for the midweek game because she was sick. She would not have called out unless it was really bad.)

During her time at home, I basically Lysoled the hell out of anything she touched. (SOP in my house when someone gets sick.). Meanwhile, the cough would not stop. It was awful.

On Saturday, Feb. 29, I drove her to local urgent care clinic. (I made her wear a mask in the car and Lysoled after she got out.). The NP at urgent care said her “flu” had progressed to bronchitis and that she was wheezing terribly. She had not had a bout with asthma in years before that. The NP prescribed an antibiotic, two different types of inhalers, and a lower dose of steroid (since the prednisone made her crazy and she wouldn’t take it any more). She still had fever at this point.

March 1, she woke up not running a fever any more. Still coughing, but not quite as bad. She drove back to school that night.

March 2-5, she was back in class to catch up on her classes. She had two big tests to make up. Meanwhile, she was still coughing and having trouble catching her breath after walking to class. No fever. Completely exhausted. Skipped all her sorority stuff that week and did nothing but school and sleep. She also did not go work out at OTF, which is indicative of how bad she felt, since she is religious about going to her 5 AM OTF workouts.

She still was coughing and had trouble catching her breath, so she went to the student health center on Wednesday, March 4. The doctor said her wheezing was still bad and asked her if she’d gotten a chest x-ray, which she had not. The doctor told her to keep using the inhalers and steroids and to come back again if she didn’t improve in a couple of days.

She finally started feeling better and came home for Spring Break. She’s been pretty normal since then—just an occasional cough. She still needs to use her inhaler, though. She went to Destin to meet a few friends and went to baseball games at MGM Park on Tuesday and Wednesday. Seems to be on the mend.

Did she have Covid-19? I don’t know. No one in her circle had traveled to an affected area recently, so it is doubtful. Still, the thought has occurred to us. Neither my husband nor I ever got sick, but I am religious about disinfecting everything and minimizing contact when someone in the house gets sick. We’ll probably never know if she had it unless they come out with a titer test that can show if a person has had it and recovered.

I had a dry cough for about 2 weeks with a mild fever (~100) for 4 days about a month ago.

Hard to say it was COVID-19 but also don't really know so there's that lingering "mmaaayyybee" feeling

Chick-Fil-A closed today. Expect others to follow suit!