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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 1/24/20 at 9:46 pm to TigerstuckinMS
Posted on 1/24/20 at 9:46 pm to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
There's definitely a poop chute in the lower left corner.
Any thoughts on the possible species of said poop chute?
1
Posted on 1/24/20 at 9:47 pm to PearlJam
Yale did a preliminary study on the virus...
LINK
So their estimate is about 10k current cases and in 10 days it will be at 200k cases.
If their estimates are correct, that is a mortality rate that is not that far off of the common flu (40/10000 = 0.004% vs 0.001% for common flu).
Time will tell.
quote:
We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing. We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan, we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. Our findings are critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage. With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.
LINK
So their estimate is about 10k current cases and in 10 days it will be at 200k cases.
If their estimates are correct, that is a mortality rate that is not that far off of the common flu (40/10000 = 0.004% vs 0.001% for common flu).
Time will tell.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 9:50 pm to buckeye_vol
This thread is boring and the posters don't know shite and everything is stupid.
This is the worst plague we've ever had.
This is the worst plague we've ever had.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 9:50 pm to CivilTiger83
quote:
We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing. We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan, we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. Our findings are critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage. With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.
this brings me back the unpleasantness of Biostatistics... interpreting all that stuff...
Posted on 1/24/20 at 9:51 pm to blueboy
I remember the Ebola thread had people ready to march on the White House because Obama those three quarantined back into the country.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 9:54 pm to CivilTiger83
quote:I mean I never questioned that there will be a higher number of cases given that it’s in the most populous country in the world and in a high density city.
That’s impossible. We have already been told by buckeye_vol and slackster that they must be lying.
But again, a random tweet from an anti-government source (which I had to find on my own) reporting that they have a voicemail from a “medical staff,” (which could mean anybody) saying that “100,000” are infected and that the government is lying without explaining how some medical staff member could know that since the people most likely to know that are the knee being accused of lying (the government) isn’t exactly a “gotcha.”
And I’m not defending the Chinese government. I’m just saying that based in the tweets from that account, the source seems like it will report anything that will make them look bad, whether it’s verified or even true.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 9:54 pm to Dizz
quote:
remember the Ebola thread had people ready to march on the White House because Obama those three quarantined back into the country.
That thread would be an interesting bump.
Just to see the posters who flip flopped their stances.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 9:55 pm to CivilTiger83
quote:
If their estimates are correct, that is a mortality rate that is not that far off of the common flu (40/10000 = 0.004% vs 0.001% for common flu).
Not sure that mortality is accurate. You’re assuming that no more of the 11k currently infected will die. Could be much higher.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 9:56 pm to CivilTiger83
quote:Which is way more reasonable than the 14 figure that lady in the video said, which is what I started arguing with you about in the first place, and close to the reproductive rate of the flu (usually between 1
We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8
and 2 but sometimes above 2).
But I appreciate this information. And we can agree it’s actually “newsworthy.”
This post was edited on 1/24/20 at 10:22 pm
Posted on 1/24/20 at 9:58 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Any thoughts on the possible species of said poop chute?
Way too long and big in diameter for a small animal and we're talking about China here, so I'm gonna go with pig.
This post was edited on 1/24/20 at 10:01 pm
Posted on 1/24/20 at 10:01 pm to TigerstuckinMS
@stuartlauscmp
Western diplomats in #Wuhan are understood to have looked into information about Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory, a key facility for researching Ebola and SARS located just 20 miles south of the Huanan seafood market, epicentre of the latest #coronavirus outbreak.
With a population of 11m, #Wuhan is home to several consulates from major countries, including the US, UK and France. South Korea and Russia also have delegations there.
I'm not sure quite what he means when he said diplomats looked into the Wuhan bio lab.
Western diplomats in #Wuhan are understood to have looked into information about Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory, a key facility for researching Ebola and SARS located just 20 miles south of the Huanan seafood market, epicentre of the latest #coronavirus outbreak.
With a population of 11m, #Wuhan is home to several consulates from major countries, including the US, UK and France. South Korea and Russia also have delegations there.
I'm not sure quite what he means when he said diplomats looked into the Wuhan bio lab.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 10:01 pm to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
Any thoughts on the possible species of said poop chute?
Way too long and big in diameter for a small animal and we're talking about China here, so I'm gonna go with pig.
I'm going with snow leopard.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 10:02 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
I'm going with snow leopard.
That sounds like it would be magical.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 10:02 pm to TomTheGhost
Did the guy on the far left without a mask draw the short straw?
Posted on 1/24/20 at 10:03 pm to Poker_hog
quote:I’m sure more will die, but I’m guessing that those who have been identified are the ones most likely to have the most severe reactions and be at the greatest risk of dying. Not to mention, I’m guessing the early mortality rate is higher than the mortality rate as the seeking of treatment increases, people seek it earlier, the diagnosis of it gets more accurate, and the treatment gets more developed.
Not sure that mortality is accurate. You’re assuming that no more of the 11k currently infected will die. Could be much higher.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 10:03 pm to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
That sounds like it would be magical.
Not quite as magical as panda.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 10:03 pm to Dizz
LINK?
Posted on 1/24/20 at 10:06 pm to TomTheGhost
Damn. That's some third world shite.
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