- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
1
Posted on 1/24/20 at 10:56 pm to Bench McElroy
quote:
Trump needs to put China on the travel ban list along with these random arse Muslim-majority countries.
FIFY
Posted on 1/24/20 at 11:05 pm to Poker_hog
quote:And SARS is about as contagious and had 24 times the mortality rate (9.6%) and while Ebola is roughly half as contagious it’s mortality rate is over 160 times greater.
So 10x higher mortality than flu and more contagious.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 11:14 pm to CivilTiger83
quote:
That’s impossible. We have already been told by buckeye_vol and slackster that they must be lying.
One month ban bet the total cases when this is done doesn't get to 15k. You in?
Posted on 1/24/20 at 11:16 pm to PearlJam
quote:
The government isn't shutting everything down because of 1000 infections. It's most likely 90-100k and growing relatively rapidly.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 11:20 pm to TomTheGhost
quote:
CaNt Be AnYmOrE SeRiOus ThAn ThE fLu
Y'all are hysterical.
Soooo many in this thread want this to be worse than it ever will be.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 11:20 pm to slackster
You really think they shut down a city of 11 million people, larger than NYC, because 1000 of them are sick?
Posted on 1/24/20 at 11:21 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
And SARS is about as contagious
The Yale boys don’t agree with you
quote:
We are still in the early days of this outbreak and there is much uncertainty in both the scale of the outbreak, as well as key epidemiological information regarding transmission. However, the rapidity of the growth of cases since the recognition of the outbreak is much greater than that observed in outbreaks of either SARS or MERS-CoV. This is consistent with our higher estimates of the reproductive number for this outbreak compared to these other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.
Up to 20% of American get the flu every year. Let’s say this thing infects 30% at a 1% mortality rate. That’s a million American deaths.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 11:29 pm to Poker_hog
I’m not really concerned about a major outbreak in the States. What is going to happen in China may be unprecedented. I don’t think some people understand just how dirty and unsanitary China is.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 11:32 pm to beebefootballfan
quote:
I don’t think some people understand just how dirty and unsanitary China is.
Especially outside the urban areas. Which are far from clean themselves.
Probably don't have human shite on the sidewalks though.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 11:38 pm to BuckyCheese
quote:
Probably don't have human shite on the sidewalks though.
RIP in peace Seattle and San Francisco.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 11:42 pm to Poker_hog
quote:
The Yale boys don’t agree with you
Consensus document on the epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)
The estimates of the intimate rate from one story were 2.0-3.5 (so roughly 2.8 median) and 2.9 in another. 30% higher is not the “same,” but when it can be as high as 18 for measles, and we were discussing 14 earlier, the difference seems much smaller by those comparisons.
In addition, I wonder how much of a differed a place like Hong Kong (more developed; more westernized) would limit that than a place like Wuhan (less developed; more historical communist influence). I would suspect, all else being equal, Hong Kong would have a slightly lower rate than Wuhan.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 11:44 pm to BuckyCheese
quote:
You really think they shut down a city of 11 million people, larger than NYC, because 1000 of them are sick?
Yes.
Considering the world's reaction to their SARS response, I absolutely do. It makes a ton of sense for them to react swiftly this time around.
Also, people need to understand the difference between confirmed cases and estimated cases. You have to understand the selection bias that you're seeing right now in these numbers.
The confirmed cases are people that are symptomatic and sick enough to go to the hospital in the majority of cases. For comparison, about 1% of estimated flu cases result in hospitalization in the US. Tens of millions of people get it each year without even going to a doctor, much less the hospital, so I'm sure there are plenty of people in China that do the same. People will have this and never know they had it, but it doesn't mean the numbers coming out of China or other places are a lie.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 11:45 pm to BuckyCheese
I’m most frequently in Guizhou province and have been visiting there for 15 years.
I’ve seen raw sewage running down the street, people spitting everywhere, 0 hygiene practices, wet markets everywhere, kids crapping in the street, and just general filth.
People also smoke like chimneys there which means coughing all day everyday.
With Chinese New Year, which if you haven’t been there when it hits you can’t even fathom how crazy it is, people had already started moving before this really broke. If infected people travelled it could get crazy in the next two weeks.
I’ve seen raw sewage running down the street, people spitting everywhere, 0 hygiene practices, wet markets everywhere, kids crapping in the street, and just general filth.
People also smoke like chimneys there which means coughing all day everyday.
With Chinese New Year, which if you haven’t been there when it hits you can’t even fathom how crazy it is, people had already started moving before this really broke. If infected people travelled it could get crazy in the next two weeks.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 11:45 pm to Poker_hog
quote:No it’s not. 1% of 30% is 0.3%, and 0.3% of 327 million is 981,000. But since neither of those figures, let alone both, are even practical here in the United States, it’s a moot point.
Let’s say this thing infects 30% at a 1% mortality rate. That’s a million American deaths.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 11:48 pm to slackster
To add to my previous post, Wuhan is building a well documented temporary hospital specifically for the coronavirus. It will have 1,000 beds. Seems useless if the "real" number is 90-100k and climbing, no?
Posted on 1/24/20 at 11:51 pm to slackster
quote:
numbers coming out of China or other places are a lie.
I can assure you the numbers coming out of China are a lie. China has to keep its people under control. Also, we’re talking about a government who lied about the swine flu numbers last year, and covered up a tainted formula (2008) and Tainted vaccine outbreak (2018)
There is a long list of misinformation from the CCP. It’s about control of their people, they don’t care about what the rest of the world thinks.
I know you may not be able to fathom that but until you experience it first hand you are blinded by your freedoms.
This post was edited on 1/24/20 at 11:54 pm
Posted on 1/24/20 at 11:55 pm to beebefootballfan
quote:
With Chinese New Year, which if you haven’t been there when it hits you can’t even fathom how crazy it is, people had already started moving before this really broke. If infected people travelled it could get crazy in the next two weeks.
A majority of the workers in the factories I have a bit of knowledge of, Shenzen, go home to the provinces during New Years. Only about 60-65% of them return to work after the holiday.
That kind of outflow from the cities will rapidly spread anything contagious throughout the country.
Posted on 1/24/20 at 11:56 pm to slackster
quote:Like I said earlier, basically shut down a major city in the United States of America (even if it was voluntary), that happens to be the epicenter of our fight for independent as a nation, while our law enforcement went full-on military mode, search house by house, because a 16 year old terrorist was on the run with little to no support or resources to help him.
To add to my previous post, Wuhan is building a well documented temporary hospital specifically for the coronavirus. It will have 1,000 beds. Seems useless if the "real" number is 90-100k and climbing, no?
This post was edited on 1/24/20 at 11:58 pm
Posted on 1/24/20 at 11:58 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
The estimates of the intimate rate from one story were 2.0-3.5 (so roughly 2.8 median) and 2.9 in another. 30% higher is not the “same,” but when it can be as high as 18 for measles, and we were discussing 14 earlier, the difference seems much smaller by those comparisons.
The difference between a multiple of 3 vs 4 is huge. That’s why they said controlling the outbreak will be substantially harder.
3. 4
9. 16
27. 64
81. 256
243. 1024. And so on
Page 39 of 1190
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News