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Teddy Ruxpin
LSU Fan
TX
Member since Oct 2006
34500 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
How's everyone feeling this latest "surge" will play out?

First one was about 6 weeks from closures to reopenings. Do we see a similar trend? A larger moving plateau of 30k+ cases that people eventually become accustomed to?

Much shorter as long as hospitalizations, deaths, and capacity remain in good shape? That's asking for rational thought though.

Some of what appear to be better modelers look like an increase through August and a return to May/June numbers in October. Not a fan of that since that may give political cover.
This post was edited on 6/30 at 10:04 am


Sasquatch Smash
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2007
10610 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

How's everyone feeling this latest "surge" will play out?


I think this latest "surge" is a multi-factored event, for the most part driven by increased testing (employers, contact tracing, elective medical procedures, etc.).

Testing capacity is such that young, asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic people are now being tested in large numbers, which gives us large numbers of people to contact trace based on social activity of that age group.

Large protests likely had an effect in some places.

It sounds as though, depending on the state and reporting system, that many negative tests aren't being reported, whereas all positive tests are being reported immediately.

Something is going on in hospitals when it comes to reporting, but I'm unsure as to what these increases in hospitalizations actually mean. Short stays and high turnover filling beds? Someone testing positive even though they went in for a broken leg or car wreck is counted? Nosocomial spread within hospitals on the rise?

Multiple reports of people crossing the southern border to get treatment or with the virus. Migrant farmworkers are on the move right now, in addition to ex-pats and green card holders coming for treatment.

I don't expect deaths to increase with the current demographic seeing the "surge."



If anything is clear, it's that our testing capacity continues to increase whereas other countries are decreasing.
This post was edited on 6/30 at 10:08 am


lsu13lsu
Member since Jan 2008
8471 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

Something is going on in hospitals when it comes to reporting, but I'm unsure as to what these increases in hospitalizations actually mean. Short stays and high turnover filling beds? Someone testing positive even though they went in for a broken leg or car wreck is counted? Nosocomial spread within hospitals on the rise?



Always follow the incentives with hospitals/healthcare. They will figure out what maximizes revenue then do that repeatedly.


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escatawpabuckeye
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jan 2013
593 posts
 Online 

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
I would agree to a point. I do think our case numbers are very high because we have the ability to test folks who wouldn’t have been tested 2 months ago simply related to paucity of tests.

However to suggest that’s this is why we are falling behind Europe would mean that Europeans are simply letting cases run amok because they aren’t testing like we are. I think that’s wrong. I think they have largely stamped out big outbreaks and as a consequence can focus on suppression.

Our death numbers almost certainly will rise because we won’t be able to stop vulnerable people from eventually being infected with these levels of community spread. The virus hasn’t changed that I know of and there haven’t been any ground breaking changes in therapy. That being said I think we are better than we were in March/April.

I think the biggest difference is that generally speaking Europe, Japan/Taiwan and New Zealand/Australia had more effective lockdowns because 1. They have more trusting, law abiding populations with better education systems. 2. Their political systems used the lockdown period more effectively to establish testing, tracking and tracing systems to better respond to the inevitable flash points.

Had Arizona tried to put things in place to respond to rising cases before they ended their lockdown they’d be in a much better spot.


Sasquatch Smash
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2007
10610 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

However to suggest that’s this is why we are falling behind Europe would mean that Europeans are simply letting cases run amok because they aren’t testing like we are. I think that’s wrong. I think they have largely stamped out big outbreaks and as a consequence can focus on suppression.


I mean, maybe.

But if we're testing everyone who wants a test, even if they don't have symptoms, and they're potentially not...that would explain things.

I do think population density in this country, varying state to state, and sheer geographical size of the USA compared to European countries is playing a role in things.

quote:

Our death numbers almost certainly will rise because we won’t be able to stop vulnerable people from eventually being infected with these levels of community spread. The virus hasn’t changed that I know of and there haven’t been any ground breaking changes in therapy.


Maybe, maybe not. It's possible the virus has already burned through the majority of the most vulnerable (aka nursing home residents) by this point most places.

I don't think any miracle cures have appeared, but steroids have been shown to work at improving outcomes, which the WHO urged against using at the start.
This post was edited on 6/30 at 10:50 am


escatawpabuckeye
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jan 2013
593 posts
 Online 

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
It has certainly clobbered the northeast and Chicago but California, Florida and Texas had previously been largely spared.

given who has been infected so far in these states I don’t think we’ll be facing a death spiral in 2 weeks. But the longer this goes on the more likely we are to see sheltered populations get hit. Further, it’s not as though some young, less vulnerable people won’t die.

I would contend that these are needless deaths. More could have been done during the period of nationwide shutdown to ensure runaway growth in case numbers didn’t occur. There is no organization; no centralized strategy. It’s frustrating. This runaway rebound in cases is what we aren’t seeing in Europe. So far anyway


Sasquatch Smash
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2007
10610 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Did this paper get posted over the last couple weeks?

Simulated sunlight kills the virus, 90% deactivated after 6 minutes.

Good thing all the superspreading beaches are being shut down again...


wm72
New York/Roma
Member since Mar 2010
6952 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Beaches are open in NY but I imagine places that have actual nice beaches may be more concerned about the amount of people traveling there and crowding all around more than just the moment people are on the actual beach, aside from big parties.

A local water park here was shut down and people complained that it was such low risk for kids to be out in the sun taking water rides until an explanation with photos came out of 300 parents crowded in the bar/grill observation area.

This post was edited on 7/1 at 9:39 am


GOP_Tiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
6260 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

I think this latest "surge" is a multi-factored event


I think that it's mainly a result of bars reopening. Florida, Arizona, and Texas have shut their bars back down, and California has done the same in much of Southern California, so I expect that the case numbers in those states will continue to be high for a few more days, and then they will start to drop.

Louisiana should do the same thing. I suspect that Gov. Edwards has only waited to shut down the bars because the legislature has been threatening to undue his authority for shutdowns, and he wanted to wait until after the special legislative session ended today.


Bullfrog
LSU Fan
but I left before halftime.
Member since Jul 2010
46431 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

Simulated sunlight kills the virus, 90% deactivated after 6 minutes.
Nice. UV rays erode the viability the virus, pretty quick.

I keep 3 “Plug-in” UV air cleaners running 24/7 in my house.

May upgrade to a whole house with one installed in the HVAC.

Amazon sells them.
This post was edited on 6/30 at 6:59 pm


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RetiredSaintsLsuFan
LSU Fan
Gulf Coast, Alabama
Member since Jun 2020
44 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
How much of the increases in positive cases have to do with the protesting?


SloaneRanger
LSU Fan
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
1976 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Impossible to quantify and will differ place to place. But it was clearly a factor. Just look at Alabama's big spike. Started right at 6/9, well after things opened up, and 15 days after Memorial Day. Anyone who says that the big gatherings all over the state didn't contribute is in denial.

There are two things in play with the protests: (1) the protests and gatherings themselves, and (2) the fact that the medical community and many political leaders blessed them and played down Covid. I think that caused a lot of people to just say frick it and stop being careful.


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72
MarcusQuinn
Member since Aug 2005
571 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Of course. The people on the beaches are also eating, drinking, peeing, staying in hotels, etc. The beaches themselves are probably pretty safe.


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40
BRIllini07
Chicago Cubs Fan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2015
1634 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

I think that it's mainly a result of bars reopening. Florida, Arizona, and Texas have shut their bars back down, and California has done the same in much of Southern California, so I expect that the case numbers in those states will continue to be high for a few more days, and then they will start to drop. Louisiana should do the same thing. I suspect that Gov. Edwards has only waited to shut down the bars because the legislature has been threatening to undue his authority for shutdowns, and he wanted to wait until after the special legislative session ended today.


It's not even bars in general, it's the bars that become close to clubs in terms of atmosphere.

In theory I think an intermediate step would work (capacity limited to the LOWEST of 25% capacity or 25 people). This lets all the mom and pop dive bars, breweries, etc... to stay open and more surgically strikes Tigerland, The Cowboy (Lake Charles) and the like where 25% capacity can all stuff into 1/4th of the bar.


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Teddy Ruxpin
LSU Fan
TX
Member since Oct 2006
34500 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

May upgrade to a whole house with one installed in the HVAC


I recently replaced an HVAC and they offered this.

While it sounds nice to eradicate viruses in the home, I have to think killing everything around us isn't doing any favors for our immune system.

There have been interesting studies about the prevalence of certain serious illnesses in Western children vs developing nation's that theorizes on this causation.


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Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Arkansas Fan
Surrounded by toilet paper
Member since Jan 2012
2230 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Seems like we have been doing much better since ventilators have been recommended only in the most dire of situations. Early on, people were going on ventilators too early.



lsu13lsu
Member since Jan 2008
8471 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
A friend came back positive. My first friend to get it. By the time they got results they were over it. Little fever and fatigue for 24 hours.


Sasquatch Smash
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2007
10610 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Wake Forest Baptist Health system website that briefly shows their antibody testing study results. Their testing is showing 12-14% antibody positive in their study population, which appears to be centered on their area of North Carolina (obviously).

Lines up with other results so far.



Another wastewater preprint, this time out of Brazil, which detected the virus in samples all the back to November 2019.
This post was edited on 7/1 at 9:50 am


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Mudminnow
LSU Fan
Houston, TX
Member since Aug 2004
33168 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

May upgrade to a whole house with one installed in the HVAC.


I had Honeywell UV-C light installed two years ago when we moved. Had them at prior house as well. They reduce viruses, smells, allergens, and most importantly what they were designed for was eliminate mold.

Honeywells cost with installation from licensed HVAC company is $325 and the Remi Halo around $650.

LINK

How HVAC Can Help Prevent the Spread of Contagious Diseases


This post was edited on 7/1 at 10:21 am


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Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Arkansas Fan
Surrounded by toilet paper
Member since Jan 2012
2230 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Overview of Spain:


Overview of Italy:


More and more, I think we just have to let this run its course. Nearly every country/state that is above 500 deaths per million has a deaths chart that looks almost exactly like the above two.


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