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escatawpabuckeye
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jan 2013
608 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Death rates are down in many states. Here's some clues as to why that may be.

* Indiana: 1,832 COVID-19 deaths; 2,149 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 384)
* Illinois: 4,856 COVID-19 deaths; 3,986 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 782)
* Tennessee: 336 COVID-19 deaths; 1,704 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 611)
* Ohio: 1,969 COVID-19 deaths; 2,327 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 820)
* Virginia: 1,208 COVID-19 deaths; 1,394 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 451)
* West Virginia: 72 COVID-19 deaths; 438 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 117)

Data was sourced from [here](LINK ) & [here](LINK ).


WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
8248 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Can you explain the thinking here? I’ve had a few drinks already


Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Arkansas Fan
Surrounded by toilet paper
Member since Jan 2012
2258 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
For all the "lockdowns saved hundreds of thousands of lives!" crowd:



WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
8248 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Is that their prediction for just Sweden? If so, that is hilarious


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20
SloaneRanger
LSU Fan
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
1982 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Its hard to find a lot of information, but it seems like Sweden is down to a few deaths per day. Are they about to have this behind them for good? In a month are they going to be laughing at us while we wring our hands about whether to send our kids to school or have football in the Fall?


escatawpabuckeye
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jan 2013
608 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
I think the implication is that Covid deaths are being hidden in pneumonia NOS.

I don’t know if it’s deliberate obfuscation or if these deaths occurred before Covid testing was widely available.

But obviously these states have blown past the typical number of pneumonia NOS deaths for any given year


13SaintTiger
Harvard Fan
Isle of Capri
Member since Sep 2011
17420 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Is there a source that shows how much testing countries are doing?


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Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Arkansas Fan
Surrounded by toilet paper
Member since Jan 2012
2258 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

Are they about to have this behind them for good?
Very likely. Lockdown enthusiasts like to point to their higher deaths than Nordic neighbors. Those Nordic neighbors will be going through 2nd and 3rd waves soon, Sweden will not. Also the lockdown enthusiasts don't want to compare UK/Belgium/Spain/Italy vs Sweden.

quote:

In a month are they going to be laughing at us while we wring our hands about whether to send our kids to school or have football in the Fall?
I find this ultra comical because I have been sending my kids to daycare the entire time. As I said in another thread, we haven't died yet, but I'll keep you guys posted.


Sasquatch Smash
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2007
10665 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

Lockdown enthusiasts like to point to their higher deaths than Nordic neighbors. Those Nordic neighbors will be going through 2nd and 3rd waves soon, Sweden will not. Also the lockdown enthusiasts don't want to compare UK/Belgium/Spain/Italy vs Sweden.


I don’t know about the “pending doom” of more waves in these places, but it’s clear you can’t compare countries. I’ve read where Sweden counts any death within 30 days of having a positive test as a CoviD death, and have also read that one of their neighbors, Norway?, hasn’t been including nursing home deaths in their counts, only deaths at the hospital.

Then when you get to comparing other countries you run into population factors that’s not always a clean comparison.

However, you are right in that they don’t like to compare the “bad” numbers we do have amongst those nations.


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10
rds dc
Colorado Fan
Member since Jun 2008
16046 posts
 Online 

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Sweden's CFR is still over 8%, so obviously their testing system is missing tons of infections. Also, Sweden had lots of restrictions put in place - more than half of the population was working at home, traffic was down 70%, gatherings were limited, etc. So it wasn't "business as usual" in Sweden.

Anyway, what I came to post was this chart below. Why isn't the media horrified by what is happening in Cali, OR and Washington? California has never had their outbreak under control and OR & WA are now past their earlier peaks. Oh well, muh Texas & Florida!



One other thing, it is interesting how the outbreak in the NE US lines up very closely with the European outbreak and the current surge in the South and West lines up more closely with the outbreak in Mexico & Brazil.


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SloaneRanger
LSU Fan
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
1982 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

this chart below.


Well I'm no doctor, but what this tells me is that no one is getting past this without taking their spike. The idea that you can shut down and avoid it seems to be a folly. Take the spike, get some level of immunity in the population, and then you may be in a place where you can do some good. Just my uninformed layman's take. We might as well carry on and get this done in the summer before flu season.


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81
Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Arkansas Fan
Surrounded by toilet paper
Member since Jan 2012
2258 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

Also, Sweden had lots of restrictions put in place - more than half of the population was working at home, traffic was down 70%, gatherings were limited, etc. So it wasn't "business as usual" in Sweden.
Sweden had 2 government restrictions: Shut down universities and high schools (elementary and middle schools stayed open) and restricted gatherings of over 50. Everything else was voluntary. Google's Mobility Trends showed there was a small drop, but absolutely nothing like UK, Italy and Spain. The only country with a higher mobility score than Sweden was South Korea, go figure.


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11
Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Arkansas Fan
Surrounded by toilet paper
Member since Jan 2012
2258 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***


ColoradoTiger1987
Member since Jan 2019
283 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

One other thing, it is interesting how the outbreak in the NE US lines up very closely with the European outbreak and the current surge in the South and West lines up more closely with the outbreak in Mexico & Brazil.


That’s a great point and the first time anyone has said that. Do you think the virus mutated to be able to withstand hot temperatures?


GOP_Tiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
6276 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

. Do you think the virus mutated to be able to withstand hot temperatures?


Nope. People in the north and in most of Europe are now spending a lot more time outdoors than they did in March, and people in the US South are spending more time indoors, where AC both cools and dries the air out and increases spread.


ColoradoTiger1987
Member since Jan 2019
283 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

Nope. People in the north and in most of Europe are now spending a lot more time outdoors than they did in March, and people in the US South are spending more time indoors, where AC both cools and dries the air out and increases spread.


That makes a lot more sense.


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20
jennBN
Member since Jun 2010
2194 posts
 Online 

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
The only thing I would add here in regards to California is that the state is so large that a bad outbreak in LA doesn’t translate into more cases in say SF. So it feels like the large cities are spiking at different times. We are seeing an uptick in volume here but not in acuity.

All that being said, I would view Florida and Texas in the same light. A horrific out break in Miami means nothing to the gulf coast. The numbers/statistics of the states doesn’t always paint a realistic picture.


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30
Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Arkansas Fan
Surrounded by toilet paper
Member since Jan 2012
2258 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Pieces starting to come together.

Michael Levitt (Stanford professor of biophysics) postulated that the virus burns out when it has infected 15-20% of a given population. See Twitter, he responds to gummibear here: LINK

Combine this with recent paper on T-cell resistance of 81% (due to cross-reactivity of human coronavirus T-cell's against SARS v2): LINK

ETA: People ask "What about NYC?" Well when you are logjammin COVID positives into nursing homes you are artificially increasing deaths. In a just world, Andrew Cuomo would be put on trial.
This post was edited on 6/28 at 4:14 pm


SloaneRanger
LSU Fan
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
1982 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

In a just world, Andrew Cuomo would be put on trial.


This right here. Along with the governors of NJ and PA.


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10
Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Arkansas Fan
Surrounded by toilet paper
Member since Jan 2012
2258 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Ronaldo's lockdown skepticism status: [Justified]








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