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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 7/1/20 at 10:06 am to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Posted on 7/1/20 at 10:06 am to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
That’s pretty encouraging. Well done, intesivists - I know there are a few on this board.
What is the source for this?
What is the source for this?
Posted on 7/1/20 at 10:12 am to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
Early on, people were going on ventilators too early.
What is the source of that table? Thanks.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 10:14 am to PurpleGoldTiger
ICNARC Reports: LINK
A lot of good information in those reports. Information is from the UK, but relevant here.
A lot of good information in those reports. Information is from the UK, but relevant here.
This post was edited on 7/1/20 at 10:15 am
Posted on 7/1/20 at 10:17 am to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
ICNARC Reports: LINK
A lot of good information in those reports. Information is from the UK, but relevant here.
Thanks.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 10:21 am to PurpleGoldTiger
Still no death spike in Florida. Just saying.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 11:05 am to SloaneRanger
quote:
Will people ever be able to bring themselves to admit that Sweden got it right? Will be interesting to see how it plays out, but they may be done with this.
That will only be answered, and partially at best, when Sweden shows to be "done" and Denmark, Norway et al have major second waves that Sweden avoids.
Otherwise:
1. Sweden's 5300 total deaths compared to Denmark's 500 or Norway's 250 may not seem like that many but that it's 10-20x greater hardly makes a sound argument for the US with 130,000 deaths even with shutdown measures (albeit very disorganized and haphazard ones, but that's another subject).
2. The issue that often gets effaced in talking about the shutdowns/extreme social distancing: delaying infections from March/April even to July/August would allow time for better treatment methods to take shape.
So, a person with a severe case in late July would stand a much better chance than the same person with a severe case in early April. This seems to be holding true. Just look at the stats Ronaldo Burgundiaz posted on the previous page.
3. Studies have not really shown that Sweden's economy fared much better than elsewhere in Scandinavia and Northern Europe. I certainly agree that it was much better from a "psychology" of the populace standpoint but, again, economic stress of the epidemic during those months seems to have been largely unavoidable.
4. Sweden is better compared to like Minnesota + North Dakota than the US as a whole -- just a few larger cities with lots of low destiny population areas. So, we are not really even considering the type dynamic where Covid has had a particularly drastic effect anywhere.
5. Furthermore, Sweden has many traits that make it very hard to compare to anywhere in the US, most significantly Universal Paid Worker Sick Leave (meaning no loss of income from deciding to self-quarantine), a population that's much more compliant with government "suggestions" ect
I just really can't see how it's so obvious that Sweden's approach would have worked everywhere, especially when one of the issues of the US's disorganized approach was that it seemed far too prone to "all or nothing" and "one size fits all" answers.
This post was edited on 7/1/20 at 11:18 am
Posted on 7/1/20 at 11:09 am to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
More and more, I think we just have to let this run its course. Nearly every country/state that is above 500 deaths per million has a deaths chart that looks almost exactly like the above two.
This has been obvious for a long time now. LOL at anyone who thinks this virus can be controlled or contained.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 11:17 am to SloaneRanger
South Korea, New Zealand, taiwan, among others, laugh at your facile position
Posted on 7/1/20 at 11:21 am to wm72
quote:This is the only valid argument for the lockdowns, but I still prefer the Swedish method of treating citizens like adults vs the rest of the world treating their citizens like cattle. Just how I am wired, prefer liberty over safety. I'm fully aware that having a gun in my house increases the likelihood of dying due to accidental discharge or another gun related death, but I still own a gun.
So, a person with a severe case in late July would stand a much better chance than the same person with a severe case in early April.
Comparing country death counts is a little tricky. I know for Sweden that if you test positive and die for any reason within 30 days you are listed as a COVID death.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 11:27 am to SloaneRanger
quote:It can be controlled, but you have to start really early and be hyper-vigilant. Once the cat is out of the bag there is no controlling it.
LOL at anyone who thinks this virus can be controlled or contained.
New Zealand will have to be on a lockdown until the rest of the world powers through this. Question for New Zealand is, is it worth obliterating the economy?
Posted on 7/1/20 at 11:31 am to wm72
quote:
1. Sweden's 5300 total deaths compared to Denmark's 500 or Norway's 250 may not seem like that many but that it's 10-20x greater hardly makes a sound argument for the US with 130,000 deaths even with shutdown measures (albeit very disorganized and haphazard ones, but that's another subject).
Can't really be compared with the way the countries count deaths. Sweden CoviD death is anyone that dies for any reason within 30 days of testing positive.
Norway, I believe, has only been counting deaths in the hospital and not in nursing homes.
That's only what I've read, never really researched it.
quote:
Studies have not really shown that Sweden's economy fared much better than elsewhere in Scandinavia and Northern Europe. I certainly agree that it was much better from a "psychology" of the populace standpoint but, again, economic stress of the epidemic during those months seems to have been largely unavoidable.
Saw that on Twitter a while back, if accurate, I'd say that's performing much better than elsewhere in Europe and around the world.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 11:39 am to Sasquatch Smash
This is from the article with the graph you posted.
"Most forecasters agree that Sweden will face a severe recession this year, but it is too early to say whether this strategy will prolong the recession or aid the recovery.
Any final verdict will mainly depend on whether, as a by-product of its approach, Sweden is closer to achieving herd immunity, thereby increasing its resilience in the event of another wave of infection."
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/06/01/na060120-sweden-will-covid-19-economics-be-different
Some of Sweden's numbers are certainly better but, overall, the forecast is still for "severe recession" and that article also makes the point that any real economic difference will be determined on whether Sweden fares better than Denmark, Norway et al in avoiding a economically damaging second wave.
Sweden's total "excess deaths over normal" for the time period in question were also around 10x greater than Denmark's so I'm not sure that any differences in classifying cases between the countries made a large enough difference that the point does not still stand.
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
"Most forecasters agree that Sweden will face a severe recession this year, but it is too early to say whether this strategy will prolong the recession or aid the recovery.
Any final verdict will mainly depend on whether, as a by-product of its approach, Sweden is closer to achieving herd immunity, thereby increasing its resilience in the event of another wave of infection."
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/06/01/na060120-sweden-will-covid-19-economics-be-different
Some of Sweden's numbers are certainly better but, overall, the forecast is still for "severe recession" and that article also makes the point that any real economic difference will be determined on whether Sweden fares better than Denmark, Norway et al in avoiding a economically damaging second wave.
quote:
Can't really be compared with the way the countries count deaths.
Sweden's total "excess deaths over normal" for the time period in question were also around 10x greater than Denmark's so I'm not sure that any differences in classifying cases between the countries made a large enough difference that the point does not still stand.
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
This post was edited on 7/1/20 at 12:22 pm
Posted on 7/1/20 at 11:48 am to escatawpabuckeye
Talking about the US, Chief. We're not an island nation with the ability to easy restrict immigration. The ability to control this in the US was lost in December before anyone even knew it was here.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 11:49 am to Sasquatch Smash
Correct. Sweden is counting honestly. Many of its neighbors are not. Look at Sweden's mortality for the first 5 months of 2020 compared to prior years. No difference.
This post was edited on 7/1/20 at 11:52 am
Posted on 7/1/20 at 12:07 pm to SloaneRanger
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
Sweden's excess deaths took a large leap in comparison to Denmark, Norway during the period in question.
Sweden's excess deaths took a large leap in comparison to Denmark, Norway during the period in question.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:15 pm to wm72
Let's wait a couple years and revisit. The line may drop later because of herd thinning.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 2:18 pm to SloaneRanger
Research how Rwanda in central Africa is doing with COVID.
It is more about discipline, organization and structure than geographic location. We have been found wanting in these areas
It is more about discipline, organization and structure than geographic location. We have been found wanting in these areas
This post was edited on 7/1/20 at 2:23 pm
Posted on 7/1/20 at 3:20 pm to escatawpabuckeye
JAMA report on excess deaths.
Where's Korkstand and his fighting the good fight about excess deaths and collateral damage?
So, 35% of excess deaths nationwide cannot be attributed to CoviD.
It appears as though 80% of excess deaths in LA are CoviD related, however.
Where's Korkstand and his fighting the good fight about excess deaths and collateral damage?
quote:
Between March 1, 2020, and April 25, 2020, a total of 505?059 deaths were reported in the US; 87?001 (95% CI, 86?578-87?423) were excess deaths, of which 56?246 (65%) were attributed to COVID-19. In 14 states, more than 50% of excess deaths were attributed to underlying causes other than COVID-19; these included California (55% of excess deaths) and Texas (64% of excess deaths) (Table). The 5 states with the most COVID-19 deaths experienced large proportional increases in deaths from nonrespiratory underlying causes, including diabetes (96%), heart diseases (89%), Alzheimer disease (64%), and cerebrovascular diseases (35%) (Figure). New York City experienced the largest increases in nonrespiratory deaths, notably from heart disease (398%) and diabetes (356%).
So, 35% of excess deaths nationwide cannot be attributed to CoviD.
It appears as though 80% of excess deaths in LA are CoviD related, however.
This post was edited on 7/1/20 at 3:22 pm
Posted on 7/1/20 at 8:35 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
I had the realization today that this shite may never end. I’m almost 51– I don’t want to live my life waiting in line at places and having to wear a mask until I die. I mean it’s ludicrous to think about.
This post was edited on 7/1/20 at 8:39 pm
Posted on 7/2/20 at 1:42 am to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
Where's Korkstand and his fighting the good fight about excess deaths and collateral damage?
quote:Correction: were not
So, 35% of excess deaths nationwide cannot be attributed to CoviD.
quote:That further investigation will take years, but I think they are glossing over a big chunk of excess deaths which will eventually be attributed to flu.
Large increases in mortality from heart disease, diabetes, and other diseases were observed. Further investigation is required to determine the extent to which these trends represent nonrespiratory manifestations of COVID-19 or secondary pandemic mortality caused by disruptions in society that diminished or delayed access to health care and the social determinants of health (eg, jobs, income, food security).
quote:As far as I can tell, all they did was use the death cert data from the CDC. Flu deaths are notoriously under-reported, typically less than 25% of flu deaths are counted in this data. For example, the bad 17-18 flu season which is currently estimated at 61k only had 15k actually mentioned on death certs. The 19-20 flu season has about 9k flu deaths counted, which is pretty similar to the 16-17 and 18-19 seasons at 7k each, which are estimated at about 35k actual. That looks like the other 30k excess deaths right there.
Few excess deaths involved pneumonia or influenza as underlying causes.
Am I missing something?
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