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Started By
Message
re: Beryl Thread - the clean up begins...
Posted on 7/7/24 at 9:48 pm to Duke
Posted on 7/7/24 at 9:48 pm to Duke
quote:
Literally following the script from 5 days ago, just with enough right bias on the track to freak a big metro out.
They've got to post-mortem this right bias. It's been north of guidance since Jamaica.
It started right around when everyone started posting those "Look how perfect the track's been" pictures on twitter
This post was edited on 7/7/24 at 9:50 pm
1
Posted on 7/7/24 at 9:49 pm to George Dickel
quote:
Dr. Knabb on TWC is almost begging for that TS to show some RI and become a full fledged hurricane.
It might be happening the plane got a 984.2 on that pass.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 9:50 pm to dukke v
Speaking of TWC where is ole Jim at? He’s sitting out this small storm?
Posted on 7/7/24 at 9:52 pm to The Boat
quote:
They've got to post-mortem this right bias. It's been north of guidance since Jamaica.
But the reasoning has been there the entire time.
Hell, I posted this over in the lunch thread on Tuesday:
Me telling Owlie to get non-parishables
quote:
Checkin' out weather models. If anyone sees Owlie, he might wanna grab some non-perishables.
IDK dude, ever since it got strong there was a lot of reasoning to fade the track to the right.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 9:53 pm to Gings5
Made it back to Houston from Charleston. Thanks for the great info in this thread. Here’s to hoping us Houstonians don’t lose power.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 9:53 pm to Duke
I mean why the models never adjusted for it, not why it happened. Only the Germans had this nailed since Jamaica.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 9:55 pm to Duke
all this points to my death
Posted on 7/7/24 at 9:55 pm to OWLFAN86
Not possible 
Posted on 7/7/24 at 9:57 pm to The Boat
quote:
I mean why the models never adjusted for it
Thats fair. Especially the last two days. Not used to that this close in.
Though, I think we were both skeptical of the strength of the consensus last night.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 10:00 pm to OWLFAN86
quote:
all this points to my death
You're gonna be insufferable when you live, Owlvis.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 10:01 pm to Duke
Eyewall closing up
Posted on 7/7/24 at 10:01 pm to LegendInMyMind
Still not a hurricane ha
Posted on 7/7/24 at 10:04 pm to Meauxjeaux
Forward motion slowing just a bit.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 10:04 pm to NorthEndZone
Getting tornado warnings already in that band coming onshore. Yikes
Posted on 7/7/24 at 10:05 pm to Meauxjeaux
quote:
Still not a hurricane
Its gonna be one. The last few hours should be steady to quick strengthening.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 10:06 pm to udtiger
quote:
Forward motion slowing just a bit.
Hrrr has it making landfall at 5 am. Slow would be bad because it's going to dump a ton of rain
Posted on 7/7/24 at 10:08 pm to Duke
How many minutes until NHC issues an update that upgrades to Cat 1? 90 minutes? Longer? Shorter?
Posted on 7/7/24 at 10:08 pm to OWLFAN86
quote:
all this points to my death
We’re not that lucky
Posted on 7/7/24 at 10:09 pm to LSUFanHouston
They'll issue it as soon as the plane gives them even scant evidence of 74 mph surface winds.
Posted on 7/7/24 at 10:10 pm to LSUFanHouston
They're going to find it in the eastern eye wall. Whenever they get to that pass. Close to landfall nhc will issue advisories every hour.
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