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Message
re: Alberto - Steadily Moving Inland
Posted on 5/24/18 at 7:09 am to slackster
Posted on 5/24/18 at 7:09 am to slackster
quote:
All in all, I'd say this is a more favorable outcome for LA at the moment.
Except in that particular run, with the angle it's coming in you're looking at 50 mph winds in NOLA and surge coming off the lake.
Also,
quote:
The 0z Euro looks like it's developing the storm a bit more, but it's a little east of the 12z track, and it seems to get it out of here a bit faster too.
The track is actually identical on landfall to the previous 3 runs, and was only slightly more west than the ones before that. The accumulations just give the appearance of it being more east cause the Euro is developing a slightly deeper and more compact storm, so you don't have the sloppy widespread rain as much.
This post was edited on 5/24/18 at 7:41 am
1
Posted on 5/24/18 at 7:32 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
The track is actually identical on landfall to the previous 3 runs, and was only slightly more west than the ones before that. The accumulations just give the appearance of it being more east cause the GFS is developing a slightly deeper and more compact storm, so you don't have the sloppy widespread rain as much.
I was referring to the 0z Euro. The most recent run develops this thing a little more, doesn't meander along the coast from the mouth of the river to Houma, and makes "landfall" to the east of the 12z run.
Storm surge off the lake from 50 mph winds is definitely more favorable than 15+ inch rainfall totals, if you had to choose.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 7:41 am to slackster
That was my typo, I meant Euro, not GFS.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 7:42 am to CMATTE
we were going to Navarre beach but cancelled. Hate that we will be home this weekend but dont really want to go pay to sit inside at the beach either.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 7:46 am to tke857
We are heading to Navarre as well. Like CMATTE...we are too far in to back out now. The drive on Saturday should be interesting I am guessing.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 7:47 am to ArchiTiger
Going to OB tomorrow. Why buy trip insurance? It's May--we won't have any problems... pssssh.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 7:54 am to Motorboat
People cancelling their trip are being dramatic IMO... I think it would be awesome to be on the beach if a tiny tropical storm passed through.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 7:57 am to LSUvegasbombed
No it wouldn’t
We were supposed to go Friday through Monday. Not only will it suck for rain on the beach, I will hate the drive back through possible heavy rain
We were supposed to go Friday through Monday. Not only will it suck for rain on the beach, I will hate the drive back through possible heavy rain
Posted on 5/24/18 at 7:59 am to notiger1997
Was planning on stopping in Tampa Saturday through Monday on our way back from Barbados (flight lands in Fort Lauderdale).
We have until 5pm to cancel. Guessing we should?
We have until 5pm to cancel. Guessing we should?
Posted on 5/24/18 at 7:59 am to GEAUXmedic
5/24 00z Euro
Monday @ 1AM
Tuesday @ 1AM
Old 5/23 12z run
Monday @ 1AM
Tuesday @ 1AM
The more recent run makes landfall right at the mouth of the river as a more organized storm and continues inland NNW. The 12z run meanders along the coast for an extra two days, makes landfall slightly west of the current run, but still in Placquemines Parish, and continues inland NNE.
The more organized storm should keep most of the rain to the east of the CoC, and the accumulation totals reflect that.
ETA - To your point about winds, it won't be a pleasant day in New Orleans if this run holds true, but it shouldn't be anything too severe.
The Euro's estimated wind gusts:
70-75 MPH gusts may make it on land.
Monday @ 1AM
Tuesday @ 1AM
Old 5/23 12z run
Monday @ 1AM
Tuesday @ 1AM
The more recent run makes landfall right at the mouth of the river as a more organized storm and continues inland NNW. The 12z run meanders along the coast for an extra two days, makes landfall slightly west of the current run, but still in Placquemines Parish, and continues inland NNE.
The more organized storm should keep most of the rain to the east of the CoC, and the accumulation totals reflect that.
ETA - To your point about winds, it won't be a pleasant day in New Orleans if this run holds true, but it shouldn't be anything too severe.
The Euro's estimated wind gusts:
70-75 MPH gusts may make it on land.
This post was edited on 5/24/18 at 8:04 am
Posted on 5/24/18 at 8:10 am to ArchiTiger
quote:
We are heading to Navarre as well. Like CMATTE...we are too far in to back out now. The drive on Saturday should be interesting I am guessing.
Race you to Juana's
Posted on 5/24/18 at 8:15 am to rds dc
We sure dont need much more rain here in Jax but it looks like we will be getting some.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 8:19 am to slackster
quote:
The more recent run makes landfall right at the mouth of the river as a more organized storm and continues inland NNW. The 12z run meanders along the coast for an extra two days, makes landfall slightly west of the current run, but still in Placquemines Parish, and continues inland NNE.
We are getting closer to having all the players on the field. There is a ridge to the east preventing this from going up the peninsula or off the east coast of Florida, like some earlier GFS runs were showing. This feature has been a bit more stable and was one of the reasons the GFS was such a head scratcher.
The next larger scale feature to watch is an ULL over the Gulf and how that develops over the next couple of days. It still leaves the farther west solutions on the table.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 8:37 am to rds dc
At work and dont have time to analyze all the graphs. How is the weather going to be grand isle this weekend? Anyway the storm misses it? We were thinking about going down.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 9:06 am to lsutiger2
Amen to that. Thinking of going to get the camper before the storm
Posted on 5/24/18 at 9:06 am to Marco Esquandolas
quote:
I believe the more important question that begs to be addressed here is, with the “lack-of -leadership torch” being passed a mere week ago, will LaToya and krewe have their custom embroidered Patagonia/North Face EMS rain anoracks in time for the 4pm pressers?
This is the OT. This question was asked on page 2.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 9:08 am to tke857
quote:
we were going to Navarre beach but cancelled. Hate that we will be home this weekend but dont really want to go pay to sit inside at the beach either.
quote:
We are heading to Navarre as well.
Here right now. The water's fine.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 9:23 am to LSUvegasbombed
quote:
People cancelling their trip are being dramatic IMO... I think it would be awesome to be on the beach if a tiny tropical storm passed through.
If it were just me and my ol lady then yes pretty fun but not with 3 kids under the age of 10.
Posted on 5/24/18 at 9:25 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Yep, NOLA would be fricked almost Katrina-style in this particular run.
The levees could hold, and NOLA would still have feet of water in the streets because the pumps don't work. Thanks Mitch!
Posted on 5/24/18 at 9:31 am to lsutiger2
Grand Isle will have 4-6' seas this weekend. Very rough for fishing. Look for a good chance of showers and thunderstorms as well
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