re: Alberto - Steadily Moving Inland

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FWIW TVCN moved west to SELA.

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The 18z ICON shifted west a bit as well, it has been pretty close to the Euro with them both being on the western edge of guidance. The biggest concern is that this system is going to slow down, stall, drift, etc for a couple of days and that will play a role in who gets the big rain totals.

Here is the 12z Euro for next Tuesday. There really isn't any way for the system to get out and run-to-run fluctuations in the ridge over the top will have the models bouncing the system around a bit.



As of now, anyone in the green circle could be in for some big totals. The main concern will be mesoscale features that form over short time scales and can trigger and focus the big rain totals. Models won't pick up on these until the short range and will sometimes miss them all together.

Tonight, the system is facing some big shear and most of the storms are off to the east of whatever surface low there is.





It will be interesting to see what, if any, surface circulation there is in the morning. Right now the setup would seem to favor storms down shear in the area of upper divergence (red circle).



Off to the west, there is plenty of dry air and upper level convergence, this is not favorable for convection to build west.

Thanks for the insight rds dc.i check this thread hourly. I farm up in NELA and we are hurting for some rain in a bad way.

I have never seen such movement and inconsistencies in our 10 day forecasts. It's crazy. There is always 6-7 +50% chance of rain in the forecast yet they always get bumped back. I'm hopeful we can get an inch or two out of this system up here....I certainly don't wish any severe or damaging weather on anybody though.

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We are heading to Destin Saturday

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Bring your board games and playing cards.

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So, please sweet baby jesus tell me you are saying there is a chance this could potentially be a big nothing? Keeping my fingers crossed. We are heading to Destin Saturday.

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We are too. Been looking forward to this trip for several weeks. As of 10:30 tonight, we were in discussions about what to do with the couple we are sharing a beach house with.

The decision is now down to: Do we want to drive down to the beach to get stuck in the rain or do we stay at home and get stuck in the rain.

We are going regardless of what happens. To far in to back out now. Can’t let the kids down. They have been looking forward to this trip for months.

Just keeping our fingers crossed for a few good weather days.

Don't see how it plays out this way
Or at least until a Wed landfall

CMC into Mobile



GFS into PCB

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Usually the WPC does these in coordination with the hurricane center before a storm technically develops. It can be telling of a potential track when that time comes.

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Not that I really ever want to relive this in my lifetime, but when the flood of 2016 happened, all these fricking models were pointing to Florida/Bama early on, and we saw what happened.

I pray that is not the case...

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To be fair, that system did drop a ton of rain in Florida and across the northern Gulf coast as it meandered westward.

As rds said, you can't pinpoint rainfall totals 24 hours out, much less 5 days out, but knowing the potential for heavy rainfall exists is important.

I believe the more important question that begs to be addressed here is, with the “lack-of -leadership torch” being passed a mere week ago, will LaToya and krewe have their custom embroidered Patagonia/North Face EMS rain anoracks in time for the 4pm pressers?




Gotta look the part, right?