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1
Posted on 5/23/18 at 6:49 pm to Jim Rockford
Looks like my flight is safe despite not feedback from Stormcast
Posted on 5/23/18 at 6:52 pm to rds dc
So title has been changed to 70%....what? Weather Channel says this won’t even be a named storm. Too much wind shear. So what does the 70% represent?
Posted on 5/23/18 at 6:55 pm to tigerbutt
Conditions are suppose to become more favorable for development hence why the NHC has raised development chances in 5 days.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 6:58 pm to lsuman25
Ok looks to be just rain for the wet coast of Florida, the Pan handle and Mobile will get some moisture. Not going to be the event many hardlegs are hoping for.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 7:02 pm to tigerbutt
quote:
So title has been changed to 70%....what? Weather Channel says this won’t even be a named storm. Too much wind shear. So what does the 70% represent?
Chance of tropical cyclone formation and note that a depression is a tropical cyclone.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 7:33 pm to Duke
Sticky this damn thread. Love the weather nerds
Posted on 5/23/18 at 7:51 pm to tigerbutt
quote:
So what does the 70% represent?
The percentage of baws on the OT who will get upset that there is is a thread for this. And who also will claim everyone is freaking out.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 8:17 pm to rds dc
When is this thing supposed to make landfall in the US?
Looks like it could be 5-7 days away
Looks like it could be 5-7 days away
Posted on 5/23/18 at 8:25 pm to notiger1997
quote:
The percentage of baws on the OT who will get upset that there is is a thread for this. And who also will claim everyone is freaking out.
Well count me in b/c I don’t see the reason for a big fuss like this thread is climaxing on.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 8:27 pm to tigerbutt
FWIW TVCN moved west to SELA.
My yearly explanation:
The TVCN is what the NHC typically follows, or is very close to.
A lagged average of the last two runs of the members within the TCON plus the ECMWF model is known as the TVCN consensus.
The TCON consensus is the GUNA consensus plus the Hurricane WRF model.
The GUNA model is a consensus of the interpolated versions of the HMON, UKMET with quality control applied to the cyclone tracker, United States Navy NAVGEM, and GFS models.
So the TVCN involves the ECMWF, HWRF, HMON, UKMET, NAVGEM, and GFS.
My yearly explanation:
The TVCN is what the NHC typically follows, or is very close to.
A lagged average of the last two runs of the members within the TCON plus the ECMWF model is known as the TVCN consensus.
The TCON consensus is the GUNA consensus plus the Hurricane WRF model.
The GUNA model is a consensus of the interpolated versions of the HMON, UKMET with quality control applied to the cyclone tracker, United States Navy NAVGEM, and GFS models.
So the TVCN involves the ECMWF, HWRF, HMON, UKMET, NAVGEM, and GFS.
This post was edited on 5/23/18 at 8:38 pm
Posted on 5/23/18 at 8:28 pm to GEAUXmedic
I like the green lines ... considering we'll be leaving for Destin this weekend. 
Posted on 5/23/18 at 8:30 pm to tigerbutt
quote:
Well count me in b/c I don’t see the reason for a big fuss like this thread is climaxing on.
It's not that big of a deal. Possible minor tropical system that might dump rain all over the gulf coast on one of the big vacation weekends of the year. Many are following this.
Nobody is freaking out, but like all OT threads, there are a lot of silly post in here.
I hope you can overcome this difficult situation.
Posted on 5/23/18 at 8:58 pm to GEAUXmedic
But where is the TVC15?
Posted on 5/23/18 at 9:10 pm to rds dc
Am I good to go to Gulf Shores Thursday and leave Monday?
Posted on 5/23/18 at 9:16 pm to KillTheGophers
All I want to know is, will we get enough rain in NOLA area this weekend so that I dont have to water my lawn?
Posted on 5/23/18 at 9:18 pm to KillTheGophers
You’ll be fine except it’s gonna rain a good bit.
See you at live bait baw
See you at live bait baw
Posted on 5/23/18 at 9:22 pm to KillTheGophers
I think you should be fine. Heading down to OBA, expecting some rain at some point though.
This post was edited on 5/24/18 at 12:00 am
Posted on 5/23/18 at 9:25 pm to AA77
Should we assume, for the most part, that the large majority of rain will be east of these projected paths?
Posted on 5/23/18 at 9:39 pm to East Coast Band
Yep.
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