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1
Posted on 7/8/20 at 11:57 am to LSUFanHouston
quote:
Those of you screaming for herd immunity, may need to re-think that.
You may want to rethink your entire reality
80% of people have T cell immunity. So when you say they don’t have any memory that’s not true at all. Not even close.
What you meant to say was they don’t have the type of immune memory that shows up on the particular test that was performed.
Ask yourself why they had a mild case anyway? They have a strong immune response that neutralized the virus. Just because that didn’t show up on a test doesn’t mean it’s not true.
You know too little about immunity and epidemiology to be starting a thread like this
Posted on 7/8/20 at 11:57 am to Ross
quote:
This COVID response has been a real kick to the balls
It's more like a kick to the balls for breakfast, lunch, and dinner everyday for 5 months.
Posted on 7/8/20 at 11:57 am to LSUFanHouston
Being completely immune forever was never in the cards anyways. It just does not work that way.
This is just more fear mongering. Sure we may catch it again in a few years, but it will be less severe because our body has been exposed to it and will generate the needed response.
This is just more fear mongering. Sure we may catch it again in a few years, but it will be less severe because our body has been exposed to it and will generate the needed response.
Posted on 7/8/20 at 11:58 am to PrivatePublic
Reporting that having the virus with no symptoms means you had a ‘mild case’ and your immune system would not have made antibodies to it does not hold water with me.
The current testing is very inaccurate and filled with false negatives.
I’ll use logic and historical scientific fact about virology over this bullshite thank you very much.
The current testing is very inaccurate and filled with false negatives.
I’ll use logic and historical scientific fact about virology over this bullshite thank you very much.
This post was edited on 7/8/20 at 12:06 pm
Posted on 7/8/20 at 11:59 am to lsupride87
quote:
The immune person absolutely would be carrying the virus strain for a period of time before their antibodies “destroys” it, correct?
You can be carrying it but your immune system can be heavily suppressing it, both in terms of infected cells and clearing free virus.
Note this is different from a Typhoid Mary scenario, where the immune system and contagion are in stalemate. This is a targeted annihilation of the virus.
You can be infected but your viral load be kept low enough that you realistically can’t infect someone unless you have prolonged make out session with them.
This post was edited on 7/8/20 at 12:01 pm
Posted on 7/8/20 at 12:00 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
The study also found that 14% of people who had tested positive for coronavirus antibodies in the first round of testing no longer tested positive in subsequent tests carried out weeks later.
THIS RIGHT HERE
This tells me that the antibody studies are probably vastly underestimating the true number of infections. And we could be closer to herd immunity not further from it.
Posted on 7/8/20 at 12:01 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
But if I ever want to give my grandparents a hug again, I need to consider getting the shot.
quote:Well, I will not be in line at the health dept getting that sketchy vaccine. I've never had a flu shot either.
How do you know? There's going to be no concensus on whether the vaccine actually works. So you're going to blindly get a shot that may or may not work that could have side effects that you may or may not know about. I'll pass on that until I have more conclusive data.
Posted on 7/8/20 at 12:01 pm to UltimaParadox
I’m no expert in immune systems, but if your body has fought off COVID before, would the mortality rate possibly go down upon subsequent infections? I kinda expect that you could reasonably expect immunity in a single “COVID season” but that may just be pigeon holing how the flu spreads to COVID
This post was edited on 7/8/20 at 1:15 pm
Posted on 7/8/20 at 12:03 pm to ML Crisis
Decreased deaths isn't strictly an indication of immunity.
Not only that, herd immunity is going to take years to reach, if the Ro is above 2. At a Ro of 2.5, it would require 60% of the population to reach immunity, but would also include an overshoot. In other words, if we reached the herd immunity threshold, people would continue to get sick.
This paper discusses the overshoot concept. LINK
Not only that, herd immunity is going to take years to reach, if the Ro is above 2. At a Ro of 2.5, it would require 60% of the population to reach immunity, but would also include an overshoot. In other words, if we reached the herd immunity threshold, people would continue to get sick.
This paper discusses the overshoot concept. LINK
This post was edited on 7/8/20 at 12:04 pm
Posted on 7/8/20 at 12:04 pm to WaWaWeeWa
You would need to know which studies are using IgG and which are using IgM as their test target.
It’s all over the place right now.
It’s all over the place right now.
Posted on 7/8/20 at 12:05 pm to Ross
quote:
I’m no expert in immune systems, but if your body has fought off COVID before, would the mortality rate possibly go down upon subsequent infections? I kinda expect that you could reasonably expect immunity in a single “COVID season” but that may just be pigeon hiking how the flu spreads to COVID
That’s the million dollar question. I think it absolutely will go down. Studies have shown that even if you don’t have antibodies you retain T cells for a long time and that may be all you need to prevent the massive overwhelming infection.... as long as you are healthy otherwise.
T cell function decreases with age. Think about that.
That fact is why my hypothesis is that covid severity increases almost in a straight line with age because of T cell function.
Posted on 7/8/20 at 12:07 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Not only that, herd immunity is going to take years to reach, if the Ro is above 2. At a Ro of 2.5, it would require 60% of the population to reach immunity
In a completely naive population with a novel pathogen yes.
I’m not completely sure that’s what we are dealing with, are you?
Posted on 7/8/20 at 12:07 pm to The Pirate King
quote:quote:
We are going to just have to find a way to live with this
People with sense have been saying from the beginning...yet here we sit trillions of dollars later, thousands of ruined businesses later, in the same damn boat we were 3 months ago.
You guys remember the BP oil spill coverage?
They said in April we've got all this shite going on down there that we can't for sure stop until August. However, we've got top hats to try, some other things, and all this boom to use. So, fear not, we'll get it figured out before August.
The top hat failed, just as it did three decades prior in much shallower water off of Mexico. All the other things were mitigation to clean up oil.
It was all a show that they were doing something.
What happened? The blowout/well was closed in August, just like they said it would be.
(Tin foil hat on)
Keep in mind that they have yet to ever develop a vaccine to a human coronavirus. What if all this vaccine talk, 12-18 months down for a product, is all government/media talk to try and pacify the population as this thing runs it course naturally?
Now that I've written it...that's dumb. Haha.
Posted on 7/8/20 at 12:16 pm to Volvagia
quote:
I’m still optimistic but indicators in the past 36 hours have started to turn grim. Multiple Texas medical facilities have had to start to activate surge capacity and there is I believe one place in Florida saying they are 100% full in the ICU.
Texas and Florida are about to have a lot of deaths of unhealthy people. They do not have herd immunity, however you want to define it. They are where other places were in March and April (but without killing people via ventilator and without intentionally sending the virus into nursing homes), and they have large populations with a novel respiratory virus spreading around. That's part of being a human being on earth.
Thats also what's happening in parts of Louisiana.
quote:
But to answer your question: the explanation is most likely a combination of factors, the leading two being that they are contact tracing a lot more, picking up mild cases that otherwise wouldn’t have been reported, and the fact that deaths will nearly lag identified cases by nearly a month.
They're picking up a lot of old cases, in people that didn't merit the test under the previous guidelines for the test. Agree?
They're picking up a lot of cases from people who had pre-existing immunity from similar viruses and never even felt sick. Agree?
"New cases" are not meaningless, but the value of that data point has been severely lessened by the way we are counting them.
Do you honestly believe that this virus is uniquely trasnsmittable by people who are asymptomatic, as in people who took the virus into their bodies and defeated it before their body responded with a fever or sore throat?
This post was edited on 7/8/20 at 12:26 pm
Posted on 7/8/20 at 12:20 pm to TH03
quote:
Funny enough, he said this while simultaneously calling it the common cold.
Check out the highly speculative timing (purely based on estimated time of jump from cows to humans) of HCoV-OC43, one of the common cold coronaviruses, and the 1889-1890 flu pandemic.
Perhaps this will end up being a common cold virus when it's all said and done.
Posted on 7/8/20 at 12:22 pm to Salamander_Wilson
quote:As well as false positives. In a nutshell, they rushed out orders of hundreds of thousands of these tests at a time, the testing labs are working around the clock, the whole system is completely in a panic and rush and overly exhausted right now. That's why I am very skeptical towards any result of the tests given out. Negative or positive.
The current testing is very inaccurate and filled with false negatives.
Posted on 7/8/20 at 12:24 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
In a completely naive population with a novel pathogen yes.
I’m not completely sure that’s what we are dealing with, are you?
It's still hard to fathom reaching herd immunity without a vaccine. I don't think any disease in human history reached herd immunity without an associated vaccination program. What may aid that goal is the same thing that gives it pandemic potential, which is its easy transmissibility through a variety of methods and its high infectivity, but I'm still extremely skeptical that we can reach herd immunity in a reasonable time frame with no vaccination program.
Posted on 7/8/20 at 12:32 pm to crazy4lsu
The point is you don’t know where “herd immunity” is based on many other factors one of those being immune priming from other coronaviruses.
Why isn’t New York spiking after weeks of protesting? They aren’t at traditional herd immunity levels and have an extremely high population density.
Why isn’t New York spiking after weeks of protesting? They aren’t at traditional herd immunity levels and have an extremely high population density.
Posted on 7/8/20 at 12:34 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
So if you get it bad, you probably will develop some long-lasting antibodies, but if are asymptomatic (or have very mild symptoms), you probably won't have long-lasting antibodie
Well, you can use my blood for all the antibodies you want.....I’m on day 10 of this thing....and I’ve progressed through every symptoms.....I’m at the point now where I can’t walk to my bedroom without help. This is the baddest shite I have ever seen.
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