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538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
Posted on 1/19/20 at 10:09 pm
Posted on 1/19/20 at 10:09 pm
538 NBA Projections
So I was curious how the analytics are showing the season shaking out. As of now, 538 predicts we will go 39-43 and make a run at the playoffs. Interestingly earlier today they predicted 40-42 with a 52% chance.
I will be interested to see how this shakes out throughout the rest of the season. I used the player weighted ones rather than the traditional. We shall see.
1/20/20- 730pm: 61%; Projected 40-42 record
1/23/20- 12pm; 53%; Projected 39-43
1/26/20- 9pm; 53%; Projected 39-43
2/1/20- 9am; 45%; Projected 39-43
2/2/20- 8pm- 36%; Projected 39-43
2/10/20- 7pm- 43%; Projected 40-42
2/11/20- 930pm; 48%; Projected 40-42
2/22/20- 530am; 67%; Projected 41-41
Other contenders as of 2/10
Pelicans- 67%
Portland- 17% Projected 38-44
Grizzlies- 7%; 37-45
Spurs- 6%; 36-46
Kings- 3%; 35-47
So I was curious how the analytics are showing the season shaking out. As of now, 538 predicts we will go 39-43 and make a run at the playoffs. Interestingly earlier today they predicted 40-42 with a 52% chance.
I will be interested to see how this shakes out throughout the rest of the season. I used the player weighted ones rather than the traditional. We shall see.
1/20/20- 730pm: 61%; Projected 40-42 record
1/23/20- 12pm; 53%; Projected 39-43
1/26/20- 9pm; 53%; Projected 39-43
2/1/20- 9am; 45%; Projected 39-43
2/2/20- 8pm- 36%; Projected 39-43
2/10/20- 7pm- 43%; Projected 40-42
2/11/20- 930pm; 48%; Projected 40-42
2/22/20- 530am; 67%; Projected 41-41
Other contenders as of 2/10
Pelicans- 67%
Portland- 17% Projected 38-44
Grizzlies- 7%; 37-45
Spurs- 6%; 36-46
Kings- 3%; 35-47
This post was edited on 2/22/20 at 5:46 am
9
Posted on 1/19/20 at 10:33 pm to CaptainJ47
And, as I have pointed out in other threads, that's basically with our current roster. They don't give us much of a boost for Zion's return, because they don't rate players based on the preseason, so they are just using college stats and assuming that Zion will have normal rookie adjustment problems. If they evaluated Zion based on the preseason, we'd be projected to finish several games better.
Posted on 1/19/20 at 10:38 pm to CaptainJ47
I think 35 is far more likely than 39 or 40
Posted on 1/19/20 at 10:41 pm to CaptainJ47
538 has us at 50%
espn has us at 9.3%
basketball reference has us at 10.5%
hopefully 538 is the most accurate
espn has us at 9.3%
basketball reference has us at 10.5%
hopefully 538 is the most accurate
Posted on 1/19/20 at 10:44 pm to jprdbulldog20
10% chance sounds about right.
hopefully it goes down to the wire which is about all you can ask for in a season with a 13 game losing streak
hopefully it goes down to the wire which is about all you can ask for in a season with a 13 game losing streak
Posted on 1/19/20 at 11:09 pm to cgrand
quote:35 I believe what give us a losing record from today to the end of the season. That would be disappointing given how easy our schedule is.
I think 35 is far more likely than 39 or 40
Posted on 1/20/20 at 2:21 am to shel311
I firmly believe that if Zion, Jrue and BI stay healthy down the stretch we finish with 40 wins and make the 8th seed and give the Lakers a tough 7 game series
Posted on 1/20/20 at 8:23 am to CaptainJ47
If we are fighting for a playoff spot going into the last 5 games of the season, I don't see how anyone can be upset.
Posted on 1/20/20 at 8:52 am to lionward2014
Absolutely need this one tonight
Posted on 1/20/20 at 9:10 am to shel311
they’ve won 16
39 games left so 19 more wins is basically .500
I think it will take 40 to get in but like the above I’ll be happy if they take it down to the last week. A series with the lakers will be insufferable. The less lebron and his butt boy in my life the better
39 games left so 19 more wins is basically .500
I think it will take 40 to get in but like the above I’ll be happy if they take it down to the last week. A series with the lakers will be insufferable. The less lebron and his butt boy in my life the better
Posted on 1/20/20 at 9:15 am to WicKed WayZ
quote:
make the 8th seed and give the Lakers a tough 7 game series
and you gotta think the NBA would be salivating over that playoff matchup... revenge series for us, Zion against Lebron, AD's bitch arse, list goes on and on
Maybe we'll finally start seeing some free throws soon
Posted on 1/20/20 at 9:22 am to lionward2014
I can certainly live with just missing it as its lagniappe really.
Either way these last couple of months these guys will be in huge games and it will tremendously help their development as it has already.
Either way these last couple of months these guys will be in huge games and it will tremendously help their development as it has already.
Posted on 1/20/20 at 9:39 am to CaptainJ47
Our schedule is very favorable the rest of the way compared to the other teams currently fighting for the 8 seed. It's not unreasonable to think the Pels go 23-16 (39-43) if not better during this stretch.
They have proved over the last 30 days they can hang with the big guns if they have enough body's healthy, and have taken care of teams they should beat on a fairly consistent basis. If they continue to beat teams they should beat, and steal a game here or there where maybe they aren't expected to win (March 1st plz) then there is a great chance that we can make the playoffs.
They have proved over the last 30 days they can hang with the big guns if they have enough body's healthy, and have taken care of teams they should beat on a fairly consistent basis. If they continue to beat teams they should beat, and steal a game here or there where maybe they aren't expected to win (March 1st plz) then there is a great chance that we can make the playoffs.
Posted on 1/20/20 at 10:12 am to LSU_504
We will need at some point, a 9-1, 8-2, record over a 10 game stretch I believe, to get in the playoffs. I believe we are capable and that it WILL happen if EVERYONE is healthy and playing up to their abilities. Just a matter if Gentry's rotations and in-game coaching allows that to happen. We shall see....
Posted on 1/20/20 at 11:05 am to irvchilichill1
here's a good graphic.
with a small improvement in defensive efficiency, the pels would be...average (ie: .500 team)
with a small improvement in defensive efficiency, the pels would be...average (ie: .500 team)
Posted on 1/20/20 at 11:17 am to cgrand
quote:
Schedule strength through Week 13
Toughest: 1. New Orleans, 2. Cleveland, 3. Atlanta
Easiest: 1. Milwaukee, 2. Phoenix, 3. Denver
Posted on 1/20/20 at 11:19 am to cgrand
quote:
New Orleans Pelicans
Record: 16-27
Pace: 103.2 (6)
OffRtg: 109.1 (19)
DefRtg: 112.7 (26)
NetRtg: -3.6 (24)
Here we go! Zion Williamson is set to make his regular-season debut when the Pelicans host the Spurs on Wednesday. The Pelicans are 10-5 -- with wins over the Nuggets, Pacers, Rockets and Jazz -- since the end of that brutal, 13-game losing streak. They have the Western Conference's easiest remaining schedule, with 26 of their final 39 games against teams currently under .500. And four of those 26 are against the eighth-place Grizzlies. The door is open.
Posted on 1/20/20 at 11:35 am to jprdbulldog20
quote:
538 has us at 50%
espn has us at 9.3%
basketball reference has us at 10.5%
hopefully 538 is the most accurate
If youre a homer like me then 538 is right. But the other 2 make a lot more sense since were more than halfway through the season, 5 games back on a division rival currently holding the 8th spot, only have 1 divisional win are competing with 6 other teams for the 8th seed. We likely wont make the playoffs but this team will be fun to watch for the rest of the season anyway.
Posted on 1/20/20 at 11:49 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
pels are 11-17 in conference
1-5 in division
here are the 2-team playoff tiebreakers
upcoming division games will be critical vs spurs (4 games) and grizzlies (4 games)
1-5 in division
here are the 2-team playoff tiebreakers
quote:
Tiebreaker Basis For Two-Way Ties
(1) Head-to-head won-lost percentage
(2) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division
(3) Division won-lost percentage for teams in the same division
(4) Conference won-lost percentage
(5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference
(6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference
(7) Net Points, all games
upcoming division games will be critical vs spurs (4 games) and grizzlies (4 games)
This post was edited on 1/20/20 at 11:53 am
Posted on 1/20/20 at 12:05 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
No, 538's model is the only one that factors in who is playing and who isn't. They factor into our losing streak the fact that we were without Derrick Favors, for example. It's the most sophisticated model. It now gives us a 53% chance of making the playoffs because it's statistically likely, considering that we are going to be playing easier teams and we're getting Zion (though he's better than they are rating him, as I've explained).
What it doesn't factor in is possible trades, which is why I'm not buying their model's belief that OKC is 95% to make the playoffs. With OKC having both Adams and Gallinari on the trade block, I think that it's likely that they will slide.
What it doesn't factor in is possible trades, which is why I'm not buying their model's belief that OKC is 95% to make the playoffs. With OKC having both Adams and Gallinari on the trade block, I think that it's likely that they will slide.
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