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GOP_Tiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
6695 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
Odds back up to 54%.


CelticDog
LSU Fan
Member since Apr 2015
32538 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
quote:

Odds back up to 54%.


two others have them under 20 still.

Looking like a 3 way race.
Spurs
Memphis
Pels

They all play each other 3 or 4 times.

I keep waiting for the supposed thunder selling spree. Maybe not happening.


TigerinATL
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Feb 2005
52732 posts
 Online 

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
quote:

I keep waiting for the supposed thunder selling spree. Maybe not happening.


Aren't the thunder in the repeater tax? That tax rate is pretty high. Playoff revenue for the first round is probably around $5 million, maybe less if you only get 2 games. They can probably get much more tax relief from a trade than they'd make from a first round exit.

However, they are currently 7 games ahead of the 9 seed. If they can bank enough wins before the trade deadline they may be able to cut their tax bill and get playoff revenue too. So even if trading is motivated by money, that motivation will also make them wait until the last minute to execute a trade.
This post was edited on 1/26 at 8:55 pm


CaptainJ47
Hawaii Fan
Gonzales
Member since Nov 2007
6028 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
Right now the fight for the last spot has the following projections:
Pelicans- 39-43
Portland- 37-45
San Antonio- 34-48
Memphis- 34-48


jprdbulldog20
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2013
8845 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
thanks for absolutely nothing trash arse pacers


CaptainJ47
Hawaii Fan
Gonzales
Member since Nov 2007
6028 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
Interestingly enough the model showed Portland was favored by 4 to win this game. Doesn’t change the odds but man a Portland loss would have been nice.


jprdbulldog20
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2013
8845 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
portland might be having their best shooting game of the season. and this man lillard just doesnt miss shots anymore. its insane


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CelticDog
LSU Fan
Member since Apr 2015
32538 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
quote:

Right now the fight for the last spot has the following projections:
Pelicans- 39-43
Portland- 37-45
San Antonio- 34-48
Memphis- 34-48


do again after trade deadline.

And do they give odds?
You'd expect whopping odds for 34 win teams.

I will bet 10k at those long odds (25-1, lol) that both memphis AND spurs exceed 34.

Bookmarked.

Im ready to lay 10k on the two team.parlay.

Its just 538 though.
Not a real bookie.
This post was edited on 1/27 at 8:43 am


jprdbulldog20
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2013
8845 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
down to 43% frick dame and portland
This post was edited on 2/1 at 12:29 am


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21
iwyLSUiwy
Southern Fan
I'm your huckleberry
Member since Apr 2008
26232 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
quote:

Right now the fight for the last spot has the following projections:
Pelicans- 39-43
Portland- 37-45
San Antonio- 34-48
Memphis- 34-48




So they think Memphis, who won 11 games in January alone, is only going to win 10 more games the rest of the year? Got it.


Colonel Flagg
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2010
18638 posts
 Online 

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
That seams low; however, Memphis has 18 of their remaining 33 games against teams with a winning record (current playoff teams) and 6 of their 15 games against teams with losing record are against the Pels, Blazers, and Spurs.


CaptainJ47
Hawaii Fan
Gonzales
Member since Nov 2007
6028 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
Just updated the OP. Portland’s win against LAL hurt our chances.


TigerinATL
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Feb 2005
52732 posts
 Online 

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
I’m not worried about other teams. The whole reason we’ve felt we had a chance was a 3 fold combination of the team finally gelling, getting Zion back, and the schedule easing. The Pels will need to win at a high rate to get in, but those 3 factors should let them do it. The Pels don’t need other teams to stumble, they need to hit their stride.


MSTiger33
LSU Fan
New York City
Member since Oct 2007
16176 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
I remain cautiously optimistic


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Mystictiger
LSU Fan
Louisiana
Member since Jul 2015
2198 posts
 Online 

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
11 of our last 33 games are against teams currently above .500. 8 more of those are against Phx, Por, SAS and Mem. That leaves 14 games against teams with losing records that we need to win.


cgrand
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
23242 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
they likely need all 8 of those games to have a chance.
it’s a tall order but at least we should have meaningful games all the way to the end


cgrand
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
23242 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
quote:

Clint Capela expected to be out Sunday vs. Pelicans, Mike D'Antoni said.


Milesahead
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
340 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
Houston game will be interesting. They are playing super small ball...but they have no advantage when we play with Zion at the 5. He can bully them but still guard their "big" guys. If Jrue is on and refs call a good game, I think we win


CelticDog
LSU Fan
Member since Apr 2015
32538 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
quote:

Jrue is on and refs call a good game, I think we win


i venture to say if jrue is on, pels win vs any team, anywhere, if the others just hit avg.



cgrand
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
23242 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
quote:


i venture to say if jrue is on, pels win vs any team, anywhere, if the others just hit avg.

pretty much


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