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cgrand
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
20107 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
quote:

The Houston Rockets became the first NBA team since 1963 to play an entire game without a player taller than 6-foot-6 in the lineup during their 128-121 win over the Dallas Mavericks. Daniel House and Thabo Sefolosha, both listed at 6-foot-6, were the tallest players used in D'Antoni's lineups.


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Soggymoss
Member since Aug 2018
3929 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
quote:

When Zion plays the 5, the Pelicans are +40.4 points better than their opponents for a win/loss expected total of 82-0. The 4? 68 wins.

He's sixth in net-rating in the NBA in the past 5 games (+17.0).

He is one of just 5 players averaging 27 points, 11 rebounds per-36. #ROY LINK


This post was edited on 2/1 at 5:08 pm


jprdbulldog20
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2013
7929 posts
 Online 

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
the hornets just put together one of the worst 3rd quarters ever to completely blow their game in san antonio

so portland just isnt gonna lose anymore...cool cool

and for the first time in months portland has moved ahead of us on 538
This post was edited on 2/1 at 11:56 pm


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10
CaptainJ47
Hawaii Fan
Gonzales
Member since Nov 2007
5710 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
Updated again. What you are seeing is a surging Portland likelihood. The Pels record stands the same. They are winning the ones they are expected to and losing the ones they “should”.

This week the model favors the Pels over the Bucks (slightly) and over the Bulls while they are a slight underdog to the Pacers. We need a 2-1 week.

This week Portland is expected to go 1-2 with their win against the Spurs. We we can get them to go cold it will help but we need to win an unexpected one somewhere.



CelticDog
LSU Fan
Member since Apr 2015
30528 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
quote:

but we need to win an unexpected one somewhere.




.500 will do until last 15 games. By then be in sync.
Most of the last 15 will be vs zombies who are tanking.
A couple with memphis and spurs may really matter.


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30
CaptainJ47
Hawaii Fan
Gonzales
Member since Nov 2007
5710 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
Bumped and updated the OP. This will be a fun week. The model predicted the outcomes last week. Let’s get some wins and pull off an upset soon.


GOP_Tiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
5807 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
I am going to guess that our odds improved on 538 (without us playing a game) because Nurkic had a setback in his recovery, and he is likely going to be out even longer than previously expected.

One of the good things about 538 is that they make educated guesses about when players will return from injury, and then they run their computer simulations from that data.

Their simulation gives us a 75% chance of winning tomorrow night, which I think is too high.


CaptainJ47
Hawaii Fan
Gonzales
Member since Nov 2007
5710 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
Nice win for the Pels. Odds back up. Let’s finish strong before the break!


EmperorPenguin
Louisiana Tech Fan
Metairie
Member since May 2016
132 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
Still less than 1% chance of winning the nba finals though :/


STEVED00
North Carolina St. Fan
Metairie, LA
Member since May 2007
16382 posts
 Online 

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22


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CaptainJ47
Hawaii Fan
Gonzales
Member since Nov 2007
5710 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
I will take a post season appearance. If we are the 8 seed it would be fun to play the Lakers.


GOP_Tiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
5807 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
Two more big games this week:

1) Pels vs OKC is a game we should win at home.

2) MEM vs POR tomorrow night -- MEM is at home and should be favored with POR on the 2nd night of a B2B. We still want MEM to win that, because POR is still the bigger threat.

And, yeah, 538 now rates our roster as the 10th-strongest in the playoffs (6th in the West). They now, for the first time, give us a 1% chance of making it to the NBA Finals. And that's obviously because Zion's player rating in their system continues to go up (even though he still hasn't played enough to be listed in player ratings on their website).

Their website gives us a 68% chance of winning tomorrow against OKC. That would be another huge win going into the break.


LSU4ever2002
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2009
374 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
quote:

We still want MEM to win that, because POR is still the bigger threat.


I’m just not buying this. Memphis is playing too well to write them off because of schedule. They are our biggest threat, I’ll be pulling for Portland to get the W.


LesGeaux45
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Nov 2009
7756 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
Memphis has one of the top 5 most difficult schedules going forward while Portland I believe is in the bottom 3 with us in that category. Any losable game for Portland we went them to drop. Memphis will take L's going down the stretch.


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Spitting Venom
USA Fan
Member since Sep 2013
1052 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
quote:

I’m just not buying this. Memphis is playing too well to write them off because of schedule. They are our biggest threat, I’ll be pulling for Portland to get the W.

I agree. I think the models are underselling Memphis. I see them pulling off some upsets down the stretch with the playoffs on the line. Would rather POR win tonight and send MEM into break on a bad note


cgrand
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
20107 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
yes we need POR to win tonight
that’s not even a question


Soggymoss
Member since Aug 2018
3929 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
We now own the tiebreaker over Portland, and still have 1 game left against them.

We need Memphis to start dropping games to chop down that 5 game lead they have.

The right answer is we need Memphis to lose going forward.

Pels continue winning doesn't help anything if Memphis continues winning.


GOP_Tiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
5807 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
No, no, no. Definitely root for Memphis tonight. MEM is going to crash so quickly.

Here's MEM's next six games after tonight:

@SAC
@LAL
@LAC
@HOU
SAC
LAL

They are only going to win two of those six. We're going to catch up to them quickly.


Soggymoss
Member since Aug 2018
3929 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
I got Portland losing 12 more before the end of the season, we will jump them when we beat them on the 21st

I want Memphis to lose as much as possible, 1 for playoff seeding, 2 for Zion ROY..

Portland will finish right under .500, I'm not worried about them


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GOP_Tiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
5807 posts

re: 538 Predicts Chances Surging 67% Chance for the Playoffs as of 2/22
To elaborate, Memphis has 29 games left. Two of them are against us, and then there's tonight's game. Of the other 26 games, 19 of them are against teams currently in playoff position.

Oh, and after tonight, of the remaining 28 games, only 12 will be at home, and 16 are on the road. Memphis is going to lose a lot of games.
This post was edited on 2/12 at 10:47 am


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