re: 2020 NBA Free Agency Tracker and Rumors

Long thread from Shamit explaining a possible reason for the delay. TL;DR They may need cap space to do a S&T of Kenrich/Frank/Cheatham and creating that cap space may involve waiting on Charlotte to finish it's moves getting Hayward and then they can trade for Lonzo.

Shamit Dua @FearTheBrown 1h

Okay night owls, I've been racking my brain on how this Jrue deal is going to work (financially) all day and so here is a thread on some possibilities. Bear with me, this gets confusing quickly. 1/x

The Pelicans need to add somewhere between $2.8M+ (don't know the exact number because of Adam's trade kicker) to make this thing work legally. Let's just say a small contract's amount. Easiest way to do that is sign and trade a small contract. Simple, right?
2/x

Well it depends on the contract. Someone like E'twaun Moore makes it very easy. If he agrees to sign to that small amount over three years. He probably won't. Enter Kenrich, Frank, or even Zylan Cheatham.
3/x

Sign and trades MUST be three years, and the first year must be fully guaranteed. No options allowed. Great. Well if the Pelicans operate above the cap, they can do a few things.

1) Use only one of Frank or Kenrich.
2) Use both Frank AND Kenrich.

The problem with using only ONE of Frank or Kenrich is Base Year Comp. Basically their outgoing salary will only count for half of their actual salary. In order to reach the $2.8M number, you're actually paying them ~$6M. Over 3 years that looks like 3/$16-18M. Yikes
5/x

So chances are teams aren't doing that, because that's a lot of money, even if you don't guarantee the last 2 years.

Easier to sign both of them respectively to an amount that won't trigger BYC ( league minimum salary). That added up *should* get you there.
6/x

They still need to be signed for 3 years (last two years can be non-guaranteed). You can't use the min exception to sign and trade them. But the Pels have Bird Rights on Frank and Early Bird Rights on Kenrich. This is the path of least resistance.
7/x

We still following? Because now we get wild.

Another way to NOT trigger BYC is if you are actually a cap space team and not operating over the cap. And you are using your cap space to sign and trade.

Now why would the Pelicans need to do that?
8/x

Well let's say one of Frank or Kenrich isn't amenable to the above agreement. They don't want to sign on for 3 years at the minimum with 2 years non guaranteed. Maybe they have a deal elsewhere lined up. Enter Zylan Cheatham.
9/x.

Unlike Frank or Kenrich, the Pels don't have any kind of Early of Full Bird rights on Zylan. He can only be signed and traded using cap room. You can't use MLE or BAE to do it (it's in da rules).

You need to open enough cap space to sign one (or both) to the $2.8+ number. 10/x

Unlike before, in this case you can actually give that $2.8M/yr to one guy. It's clean and you don't have to worry about BYC. By my count, the Pels are already $1.39M under the cap and would only need another $1.4ish more to open.

This means NO MLE or BAE available.
11/x

The benefit of splitting this room into two players is that you can sign Zylan to a rookie min (800k) and send him to Milwaukee for cheap labor (helps their hard cap) and send one of Frank or Kenrich elsewhere.

So how to open the room?
12/x

You can trade any of your existing contracts for a smaller contract. So that means JJ, NAW, Lonzo, Hayes. Melli etc.

The EASIEST way to do it is to flip a highly paid rookie scale guy for a lower paid rookie scale guy(s).

Lonzo is the EASIEST one to accomplish this with.
13/x

Are we ready for the conspiracy? What if the reason this trade is being held up is because we're trying to get Lonzo to Charlotte with his brother and we're waiting to see what happens with Charlotte's cap space?
14/x

Depending on what Charlotte decides to do with Hayward (sign and trade someone or stretch Batum), Charlotte has a few options.

1) Take Lonzo cleanly into space for future picks
2) Make an uneven trade if they don't have total space (Monk)
3) Salary Match. (Monk + something)
15/x

Honestly this logic can apply to Atlanta and New York as well. Both teams are trying to figure out what to do with their cap. But Charlotte seems a better fit for ... Big Baller reasons.

16/x

Anywho, watch this go in a completely different direction and 15 teams end up involved. But this is where my head was at today. I hope you enjoyed some cap minutia. Had to double and triple check things with @MasonGinsberg
and @42PhD
all day.

17/17

OK, so let's assume for a minute that this is the case...what do you fetch with Lonzo?

Cody Martin, Miles Bridges, Malik Monk, Joe Chealey are really the only moveable guys

Bridges or Monk are the only two enticing guys on that list. Monk would probably be the guy, right? We take him and them flip him to OKC or Milwaukee? Neither team really needs him so it's hard to say

None of those Charlotte players seem worth trading Lonzo for. I would expect if we did give Charlotte the Big Baller Circus that we would get at least 1-2 picks back.

quote:

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Or more simply... Adams waives his trade kicker.

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LINK

Steven Adams has a 7.5 percent trade kicker in the contract extension he signed with the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday, multiple sources confirmed.

Simply waiving the 2.065 mil kicker won't magically make everything work. If Steveo doesn't waive it, it's gonna cost us a better asset (Lonzo, Melli)

I'm not sure as to how much salary was owing before the kicker needs to be taken into account, but I thought I read 2.2mil somewhere.

Pretty much hinges on Moore being a jolly good sport for this not to frick us over.


shite show

It's been a downward spiral from the moment it was announced

until terms are official I wont judge it but IMO we have already given up plenty to get Adams for 1 year.

Lonzo isnt someone you just throw away to make salaries match.

quote:

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They are going to re sign Steven Adams if he fits like they think

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Whooooaaaa there Nelly

First things first, getting this shite show sorted

Let's get crazy.

Atlanta has too many wings, we need one.

Char: Lonzo

Atl: Least favorable of Pels 2023 picks lottery protected, unprotected 2024

Pels: Huerter, Monk/Bridges or whoever Charlotte wants to send to make the money work, 2021 Charlotte 1st unprotected, 2023 Charlotte 1st top 10 protected

I don't think Ball and Jrue get moved in the same off-season though.

Very nice

Any other (bad) implications waiting till then?

Does it mean ALL traded players need to remain with existing clubs until then? Could be a problem for obvs reasons

I still think my solution is reasonable ALL THINGS BEING CONSIDERED.

Griffin charges Presti the measly 3k or whatever the debt is for one of the picks. Griffin then gets on his knees and gives praise to the almighty Sam Presti for like 2 to 3 minutes. Long enough so he really feels the appreciation without making it super akward.

Trade completed. Paperwork lodged. Everyone moves on with their lives.