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re: What should the Dolphins do with the #3 pick in the draft?

Posted on 12/29/20 at 8:55 am to
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
95553 posts
Posted on 12/29/20 at 8:55 am to
I know it is a bit of a sunk cost fallacy but what can you get for Tua after a year of play and no real flashes shown?

What did the Fins trade for Rosen? A 4th? Lot of depreciation considering that Rosen was a top 5 selection.
Posted by wildtigercat93
Member since Jul 2011
112329 posts
Posted on 12/29/20 at 8:57 am to
Cardinals got a 2nd rounder for Rosen
This post was edited on 12/29/20 at 8:58 am
Posted by 88Wildcat
Topeka, Ks
Member since Jul 2017
13947 posts
Posted on 12/29/20 at 9:21 am to
Of course it all depends on exactly how irrestible of a deal another team is willing to make for that pick but I would either take the tackle or trade down. To me Pitts is a luxury for that team that already has Gisecki but has nothing in the way of wide receivers. If this was last year's receiver draft trading down would be the easy move but I haven't studied the depth of this year's draft. You can't make any judgement good or bad on Tua yet. He had no training camp, no pre-season, and had to recover from an injury from the previous year. Typically quarterbacks make their biggest steps forward between their first and second years of starting. You have to wait until this time next year before you can really pass any judgement on him. He definitely needs more weapons to throw to though.
Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
32460 posts
Posted on 12/29/20 at 9:32 am to
Gotta draft Penei Sewell.

Draft a receiver with your later 1st.
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
202921 posts
Posted on 12/29/20 at 10:57 am to
You build from the inside out... if Sewell is there you take him......
Posted by msudawg1200
Central Mississippi
Member since Jun 2014
9418 posts
Posted on 12/29/20 at 11:35 am to
Just here for a daily reminder that butt chin Bob destroyed the Texans.
Posted by lynxcat
Member since Jan 2008
24149 posts
Posted on 12/29/20 at 11:47 am to
The answer is always to trade down. There are too many misses even with top of the round guys to not add more bullets, especially for a bad team. If they can’t find anyone to dance, then Sewell is the no brainer. WR is a luxury and a lot of good ones.
Posted by Jcorye1
Tom Brady = GoAT
Member since Dec 2007
71409 posts
Posted on 12/29/20 at 11:49 am to
Unless the Clemson QB falls, you don't take another QB. Personally, I'd inquire to see if the Pats are willing to give up a kings random to move up, but I'd see if I can drop back 5 spots or so, grab an extra second, and take the best player available.
Posted by AUCE05
Member since Dec 2009
42567 posts
Posted on 12/29/20 at 11:53 am to
If you have a top 5 pick, you always draft a QB or trade for moar 1st round picks. Max that trade value. Worst case you evaluate the new QB and trade for needs.
Posted by SammyTiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
66529 posts
Posted on 12/29/20 at 11:57 am to
Sewell.

He’s like 20 years old. He’s a franchise LT. They are setting Tua up with everything he needs to succeed.

Take a WR early in the second or with their own pick.
Posted by TheeRealCarolina
Member since Aug 2018
17925 posts
Posted on 12/29/20 at 12:22 pm to
quote:

Tua has nearly half the attempts of Burrow and QB rating 4 points higher. Not a valid criteria and QBR is an iffy metric anyway.


I’m talking about QB Rating not the ESPN QBR shite.
Posted by Bench McElroy
Member since Nov 2009
33941 posts
Posted on 12/29/20 at 12:35 pm to
quote:


Via the Source
@ViatheSource
·
19h
#Dolphins Tua Tagovailoa has the second-highest percentage of throws into tight coverage in the league at 22.8%.

Fitzpatrick has the third-highest at 21.7%.

Russell Wilson and Mahomes have the lowest, each below 11.5


The Dolphins receivers are garbage. They aren’t getting open for Tua and they aren’t getting open for Fitzpatrick either.
Posted by DBG
vermont
Member since May 2004
71730 posts
Posted on 12/29/20 at 12:35 pm to
I’m talking QB rating also

ESPNs QB rating is actually a little better but it skews a tad too much towards dual threat QBs
Posted by DBG
vermont
Member since May 2004
71730 posts
Posted on 12/29/20 at 12:51 pm to
quote:

The Dolphins receivers are garbage. They aren’t getting open for Tua and they aren’t getting open for Fitzpatrick either.


Burrow actually has a higher drop rate than Tua, 4.8% vs. 4.6. Burrow also has a lower bad throw %, 14.8 vs. 18.3, and a higher on target %, 75.3 vs. 74.1.

All the while, facing significantly more pressure, a 20.8 pressure rate vs. 14.7 for Tua
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25278 posts
Posted on 12/29/20 at 1:16 pm to
quote:

t’s going to be interesting to see because I think you’re 100% correct in that Flores will want to move the pick. We will see how high the Phine have the top O line guys graded. I don’t think Flores moves on from Tua just yet.


I don't think so either. It's also possible that the Jets take Sewell, leaving the Dolphins @ 3 which probably means they'll be desperate to trade down for a WR.

What's interesting is that last draft everyone assumed that the Lions were going to trade down to a QB hungry team, but those teams (Chargers and Dolphins) just stayed put and got the QBs they wanted. The Lions ended up taking Jeff Okudah 4th.

Might be the same scenario this time around. The Dolphins can end up taking BPA (like a defensive end) if they get stuck.
Posted by SoFla Tideroller
South Florida
Member since Apr 2010
30109 posts
Posted on 12/29/20 at 1:45 pm to
If they stand pat with their picks, they have to grab Sewell. Then add the top outside weapon available with their own pick later in the first.
Posted by Riseupfromtherubble
You'll Never Walk Alone
Member since Jun 2011
38378 posts
Posted on 12/29/20 at 1:49 pm to
quote:

Burrow actually has a higher drop rate than Tua, 4.8%


It appears you're confusing drop rate and getting open.

0.2% is what, an additional handful of drops? Jakeem Grant, a glorified kick returner, has been the dolphins WR1 down the stretch. The patriots have a better receiver corps right now. Even with Devante Parker it's a bottom 3 unit in the league
Posted by floridatigah
FL
Member since Oct 2004
10395 posts
Posted on 12/29/20 at 1:51 pm to
quote:

I don't think so either. It's also possible that the Jets take Sewell, leaving the Dolphins @ 3 which probably means they'll be desperate to trade down for a WR.

What's interesting is that last draft everyone assumed that the Lions were going to trade down to a QB hungry team, but those teams (Chargers and Dolphins) just stayed put and got the QBs they wanted. The Lions ended up taking Jeff Okudah 4th.

Might be the same scenario this time around. The Dolphins can end up taking BPA (like a defensive end) if they get stuck.


Definitely possible. But Miami and SD were the only two teams everyone knew wanted a QB last year and they both had picks in the top 6. The order could shake out better for Miami since right now Detroit, Carolina, Denver, NE, SF, Washington, Chicago, and Indy all could want a QB.
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25278 posts
Posted on 12/29/20 at 1:52 pm to
quote:

If they stand pat with their picks, they have to grab Sewell. Then add the top outside weapon available with their own pick later in the first.


I agree but I wouldn't be shocked if the Jets take Sewell - although they did spend draft capital on another OT (Becton) last year. Would be great bookends, though. Not sure how many NFL teams have gone back to back OT high in drafts in NFL history.

They need to draft at least 2 WRs though, I agree. Not sure what Parker's contract situation is going forward, but they definitely need a slot and probably another X.
Posted by wildtigercat93
Member since Jul 2011
112329 posts
Posted on 12/29/20 at 1:52 pm to
quote:

The patriots have a better receiver corps right now.


Well that’s just not true
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