re: Is ND really any more overrated than LSU?

there are no trees dame fan boys in here? they seem pretty universally hated

It’s a bad schedule for Power 4 standards (or at least the median SEC/B1G schedule, which is a better standard to use than including ACC/Big 12). But a few points:

1) Because it’s bad, ND basically has to go 11-1 or 12-0.* There’s this weird notion that the committee doesn’t care about SOS at all. Bama, OU and ND were all 10-2 in the regular season last year (and then on top of that, Bama had the SECCG where they played like shite to finish 10-3). Bama and OU were both pretty substantially worse than ND according to pretty much every advanced metric / power ranking / etc right after the CCGs. What was in their favor was they had better SOS/SOR than ND and each had a win that was definitively better than ND’s best win. That’s what the committee went with.

2) A bit related to #1, people seem to equate SOS with quality of a team. It’s fine to use as a resume or “most deserving” tool, but it really has nothing to do with how good a team actually is. If the Seahawks played ND’s schedule, they’d still be the Seahawks. If UMass played ND’s schedule, they’d still be UMass.

3) ND has control but only so much. The ACC rotation is random and the SOS is subject to the highs and lows of teams like Miami, FSU, Clemson, Louisville, Pitt, SMU, etc. A game like at Arkansas last year was scheduled when Arkansas was consistently winning 7-8 games a year in the SEC, which isn’t incredible, but that’s a relatively decent road game. Then they went 2-10 last year. Wisconsin was scheduled when they were perennially top-15. USC cancelled (and was promptly replaced with BYU), IU cancelled, Texas is rumored to want to cancel (I bet they will if they lose to OSU again), etc.

Of course, if ND can’t put together a top-notch schedule anymore for whatever reason(s) (and regardless of intent) it just makes it even more critical to not lose more than once.

*While people will point to the “top-12” thing now, I can’t see any possibility the committee ranks ND at a spot that would knock out anyone ranked ahead. I think they’ll put it so ND is no higher than #13 in that case. And so I think 11-1 will be necessary.

While only recent history, this was posted on the SEC Rant earlier today, referencing since 2014 (start of 4-team CFP).

It’s not very advanced, just rudimentary counting of a team’s preseason ranking compared to final ranking each year, and adding the total from each of the 12 seasons:

I mean we have done pretty damn well over the past few decades when a coach actually cares.

Funny, cause this ND narrative was built during the Brain Kelly days. As was LSU’s lol

Difference is we play a tough schedule every year. If we played Notre dame schedule we’d be in playoffs every year.

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Difference is we play a tough schedule every year. If we played Notre dame schedule we’d be in playoffs every year.

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Yeah, okay.

You got obliterated by A&M last year. So assuming that doesn’t change, do you think you would’ve won on the road at Miami last year? You beat Arkansas by 1 at home, would you have won in Fayetteville? By 43? Are you confident you definitely would’ve beaten USC last year? Even if so, how, when ND couldn’t even get in last year with a 43-point win at Arkansas and only a 1-point loss to A&M, would last year’s LSU team have made it with ND’s schedule, unless, somehow, you won at Miami?

In 2024, LSU lost to USC at a neutral site by 7. ND won in LA by 14. ND won at A&M by 10, LSU lost by 15. Even assuming you don’t shite the bed against NIU, that’d put you at 10-2 and probably out of the playoff with ND’s schedule (and that’s assuming you’d beat Louisville and at GT too, which would not be a guarantee for 2024 LSU).

Transitive property doesn’t work in football. We play a much tougher schedule than you, it’s not even up for debate. You wouldn’t be 10-2 every year playing our schedule or any SEC schedule.

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Transitive property doesn’t work in football. We play a much tougher schedule than you, it’s not even up for debate. .

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I didn't say "ND is better than LSU because ND beat USC and A&M, and LSU didn't" (although, I don't know how anyone with literally any semblance of objectivity could say LSU was better at all in either or both of the past two seasons than ND...). That would be the transitive property. But that's not what we were talking about.

What you said was you'd be in the playoffs every year with ND's schedule. In 2024, you played two teams on ND's schedule and lost to both. So you'd have had to go 10-0 against the rest of ND's schedule AND be given the benefit of the doubt by the committee at 10-2 (which would've been unlikely, given ND's 2024 schedule wasn't good).

In 2025, LSU lost to A&M at home, just like ND. ND's schedule didn't get us in at 10-2, so unless you went 11-0 against the rest of ND's schedule (including at Miami, USC, at Pitt, still beating Arkansas [if it was in Fayetteville instead of Baton Rouge] and winning each of ND's other 7 games) you wouldn't have made it.

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You wouldn’t be 10-2 every year playing our schedule or any SEC schedule.

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Sure, not every year. Probably not last year, given that home loss to A&M we had and you had a very challenging rest of the schedule we'd have to go 9-1 against (keeping the Arkansas win). Probably yes in 2024, given we were 2-0 against USC and A&M, and then would only have had to go 8-2 against the rest of the schedule which was weaker than the 2025 LSU schedule. We'll be able to have a guess about 2026 in less than four months.

Regardless, I again find the SOS debate so weird. Like, yeah, Team 1 plays better teams than Team 2... how does that have anything to do with who is better between Team 1 and Team 2?

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Y’all play a weak schedule

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Correct. And who a team plays has nothing to do with how good that team is. As I’ve said numerous times. Regardless, SOS is fine to use as a “most deserving” consideration, and it cost ND literally less than a year ago.

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Haven’t won a natty since the year I was born

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And the last time ND was preseason #1 was 1971 (3 national championships since then, when not preseason #1). Not even in the top-20 most overrated from preseason to postseason polls in the 12 years of the CFP era, as I posted above. The OP also ran through the numbers in the first post. That’s the whole basis of this thread.

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Propped up by NBC and now legions of fans who’ve never been to Indiana

This isn’t difficult

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Yeah, that is confusing / difficult. What does “propped up by NBC” even mean in actual real-life with examples besides just a message board quip or radio/podcast sound bite?

ND’s not even one of the top-20 most overrated from preseason to postseason of the CFP era. Hasn’t been ranked preseason #1 in 55 years. The “brand” or “NBC” didn’t get ND into the playoff last year and SOS won out for OU and Bama.

So I’m trying to figure out where all this “propping up” has, in practicality, had an unfair benefit to ND and/or tangible examples. Yeah, I know TV and radio call-in shows are obsessed with talking about ND, as are message boards. Clearly. That’s not what I’m asking.