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Is ND really any more overrated than LSU?
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:23 am
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:23 am
There seems to be a common theme in the AP preseason rankings thread of people saying that AP voters never learn by ranking ND so high preseason, that they’re always overrated heading into the year, ranked by name not reality, etc. To see how that bears out, here’s a look at preseason vs post season rankings for ND and LSU over the last 10 years:
ND
2025: 6->10
2024: 7->2
2023: 13->14
2022: 5->18
2021: 9->8
2020: 10->5
2019: 9->12
2018: 12->5
2017: NR->11
2016: 10->NR
TOTAL: -4 total AP ranks over 10 seasons
AVG: -0.4 AP ranks from pre to postseason per season
LSU
2025: 9->NR
2024: 13->NR
2023: 5->12
2022: NR->16
2021: 16->NR
2020: 6->NR
2019: 6->1 (GOAT)
2018: 25->6
2017: 13->18
2016: 5->13
TOTAL: -46 total AP ranks over 10 seasons
AVG: -4.6 AP ranks per season
Where does the narrative come from that ND is consistently overrated? Relative to pre season expectations, it seems they usually perform pretty on par. Only 2 seasons (2022. 2016) with significant underperformances dropping by 5 ranks or more. Meanwhile LSU over 10 seasons has had 7 overrated preseason rankings. The only years we weren’t overrated was Kelly’s first year and the 2 Joe Burrow years. So where’s the narrative that ND is consistently ranked too high preseason come from? Somewhere before the last decade? From just 2016 and then repeated? I really just don’t get it, especially coming from us… I know they typically play a weaker schedule, but in the eyes of the AP voter they typically do about how folks expect them to with their schedule at the beginning of the year. LSU can’t say the same.
ND
2025: 6->10
2024: 7->2
2023: 13->14
2022: 5->18
2021: 9->8
2020: 10->5
2019: 9->12
2018: 12->5
2017: NR->11
2016: 10->NR
TOTAL: -4 total AP ranks over 10 seasons
AVG: -0.4 AP ranks from pre to postseason per season
LSU
2025: 9->NR
2024: 13->NR
2023: 5->12
2022: NR->16
2021: 16->NR
2020: 6->NR
2019: 6->1 (GOAT)
2018: 25->6
2017: 13->18
2016: 5->13
TOTAL: -46 total AP ranks over 10 seasons
AVG: -4.6 AP ranks per season
Where does the narrative come from that ND is consistently overrated? Relative to pre season expectations, it seems they usually perform pretty on par. Only 2 seasons (2022. 2016) with significant underperformances dropping by 5 ranks or more. Meanwhile LSU over 10 seasons has had 7 overrated preseason rankings. The only years we weren’t overrated was Kelly’s first year and the 2 Joe Burrow years. So where’s the narrative that ND is consistently ranked too high preseason come from? Somewhere before the last decade? From just 2016 and then repeated? I really just don’t get it, especially coming from us… I know they typically play a weaker schedule, but in the eyes of the AP voter they typically do about how folks expect them to with their schedule at the beginning of the year. LSU can’t say the same.
This post was edited on 8/18/26 at 10:27 am
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:26 am to hsgeoboy
quote:
LSU
2025: 9->NR
2024: 13->NR
That hurts. So grateful for the new era.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:28 am to hsgeoboy
What annoys everyone mostly is how the media constantly blows them and disregards their easy schedule.
Similar to what you see with Texas and the faggies. Until they actually win something of meaning just give it a rest.
Similar to what you see with Texas and the faggies. Until they actually win something of meaning just give it a rest.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:29 am to hsgeoboy
Have you looked at their schedule? ND should always have 10 wins just based on their schedule.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:29 am to hsgeoboy
well im proud to say that if you go to the ap thread on the msb or maybe its on the rant ,dont remember, you will see where I said this very thing without even knowing the stats.
its ridiculous how people think note dame doesn't win or something, they win 10 or 11 games every damn year and get looked at like they are overrated no matter what they do. just because prime saban beat their arse one year in the natty.
its ridiculous how people think note dame doesn't win or something, they win 10 or 11 games every damn year and get looked at like they are overrated no matter what they do. just because prime saban beat their arse one year in the natty.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:32 am to HarryHoudini
quote:
What annoys everyone mostly is how the media constantly blows them and disregards their easy schedule.
go back and look at their schedules for every year. they play a tougher schedule than the non sec or certain big ten schools. its a tougher schedule than half the big ten and all of the big12 ,acc,and what used to be the pac.
it actually was pretty tough a few times
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:37 am to IM_4_LSU
Yeah they don’t play an SEC schedule but neither do most Top 25 teams. And the only time they’ve made the 12 team playoff, they made a run to the Natty and held their against Ohio State with a QB that couldn’t even pass.
ND has a 21-20 (.512) record against teams that finished ranked at the end of the year in that time span. LSU is 19-27 (.413), and 10 of those wins are Joe Burrow. NDs record against ranked teams isn’t the greatest but it’s still a winning record. I just feel like we don’t have much room to criticize on this given how we’ve performed this last decade… here’s to hoping the next one is different though!
ND has a 21-20 (.512) record against teams that finished ranked at the end of the year in that time span. LSU is 19-27 (.413), and 10 of those wins are Joe Burrow. NDs record against ranked teams isn’t the greatest but it’s still a winning record. I just feel like we don’t have much room to criticize on this given how we’ve performed this last decade… here’s to hoping the next one is different though!
This post was edited on 8/18/26 at 7:51 am
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:41 am to hsgeoboy
quote:
And the only time they’ve made the 12 team playoff, they made a run to the Natty and held their against Ohio State with a QB that couldn’t even pass.
Bro its only been around for 2 seasons.
quote:
ND has a 21-20 (.512) record against teams that finished ranked at the end of the year in that time span. LSU is 19-27 (.413)
This is a terrible comparision. We are not seen as an elite team since 2019. The fact we only have 2 less wins than them is more telling because of how bad we have been since 2019.
The reason majority of people bash on ND is their weak strength of schedule and their reluctance to join a conference. Comparing to LSU is a very poor one given we went 11-12 in 2020 and 2021 and 7-6 in 2025. besides what happened in '24 anytime they made the Championship or playoff they got blown out. '24 was their best team and run since the '90's.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:42 am to hsgeoboy
quote:
Is ND really that overrated historically?
Probably, more often than not. Here's my opinion why...
1) Historically has never been part of a conference, so free to pick & choose who/where they'll play
2) Since early 90's, has had a contract to televise w/NBC, so always on TV
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:53 am to hsgeoboy
The polls are flawed in that you will always be rewarded just for not losing. Bc of that ND will always be overrated at the end of the season as well
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:54 am to hsgeoboy
quote:
I know they typically play a weaker schedule,
You went out on a limb with that! It's just horse shite that in today's college football era that team w/o a conference gets an automatic CFP bid based solely on their ranking.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:56 am to IM_4_LSU
They got their shite rocked in 2012 that’s true. But in 2018 and 2020 (their other 2 playoff years) they had a better margin against Clemson and Bama than the teams that then played them in the Natty (Alabama and Ohio State respectively). So I still don’t think that’s the huge letdown that people make it out to be given the strength of the teams ND played those years.
This post was edited on 8/18/26 at 10:04 am
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:58 am to RichJ
Can you bear this out stats rather than gut tho? Like maybe rankings vs computer stats? I still feel like if Notre Dame has been recently overrated, it would not really be by all that much.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:04 am to IM_4_LSU
quote:
We are not seen as an elite team since 2019
We were ranked at high as No.3 during last season before everything fell apart. Someone certainly thought we were elite.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:05 am to hsgeoboy
quote:
But in 2018 and 2020 (they’re other 2 playoff years) they had a better margin against Clemson and Bama than the teams that then played them in the Natty (Alabama and Ohio State respectively)
ND got beat 30-3 in 2018 nearly got shutout and less than 250 yds. While Bama was in the Game in the Championship except for all the turnovers. You're using 1 stat (margin) to fit your narrative. If ND played Bama they were getting blown out too.
2024 is the only season where ND was able to win those type of matchups. They just didn't until then.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:05 am to hsgeoboy
I said this exact thing yesterday about LSU in the thread about us being ranked No.11
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:06 am to UncleDuck
quote:
We were ranked at high as No.3 during last season before everything fell apart. Someone certainly thought we were elite.
Are you trying to be a contrarian? 7-6 isn't elite. Being ranked 3 was due to pre-season rankings at beating a Clemson team that also was not elite like the preseason rankings believe. This is a terrible argument.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:25 am to hsgeoboy
I think it just shows they’re overrated at the beginning and the end.
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