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re: Is ND really any more overrated than LSU?

Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:53 pm to
Posted by Buckeye Fan 19
Member since Dec 2007
36761 posts
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:53 pm to
quote:

Read OPs title

Look at LSUs national championships v. NDs

Nothing

Else

Matters


The whole premise is preseason vs postseason rankings on the aggregate and who is more likely to be overrated in a distinct season. Nobody says LSU hasn't been a way more successful program in the 21st century than ND. If you look at recent individual seasons, it's more likely that LSU has been overrated at the beginning of the season than ND has. That's it.

Regardless, I originally was looking at this thread from just an ND standpoint, not LSU, since it's on the MSB (I think OP originally posted it on the Rant and it was moved here. After that mod decision, it should probably be considered an "ND" thread, not an "LSU" thread). My first two posts were about ND, not LSU at all. I then commented on the "LSU would make the playoff every year with ND's schedule" post because we have easy examples from the past two years why that wouldn't be the case, but I should've just let it go.

So I'm not going to compare ND specifically to LSU anymore. Clearly there are numerous programs in college football that have been consistently been more overrated (and many WAY more overrated) in the preseason than ND recently. That's really the only thing that matters to this thread. OP's comments about ND emphasize that point, without needing to specifically compare to LSU. Brett McMurphy's data clearly emphasizes that point, without needing to specifically compare to LSU.

quote:

Yikes man


I didn't make any original comment about NBC. The burden of proof is on you to provide examples. It definitely helped ND last year, right? It should be easy to find plenty. Not some vague "they get talked about a lot" that doesn't actually impact their ranking / seeding / if the committee selects them.

There's literally one where maybe "the brand" came into play and that was 2020 getting in over A&M. But even then, ND was 10-1 compared to A&M's 8-1, the losses were similar (ND blown out by Clemson, A&M blown out by Bama), ND's best win > A&M's, and ND's 2nd-best win > A&M's. So I think most neutral observers would say ND was the more deserving team than A&M there (and the Covid year was just weird, anyway). I'll leave it up to you to find any other possible examples, since you made the comment.
Posted by Sun God
Member since Jul 2009
52919 posts
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:24 pm to
If you don’t understand my NBC comment there is zero reason for me and you to continue this conversation
Posted by Buckeye Fan 19
Member since Dec 2007
36761 posts
Posted on 8/18/26 at 11:35 pm to
ND's fanbase is national, based largely on religion / heritage. Unlike nearly every other major program, ND doesn't have "state-wide" appeal in Indiana. Every home game on NBC (including a game like Ball St) is beneficial for the fanbase in that sense, in a different way than if OSU was playing BGSU, where it might be reduced to a local channel in just Ohio, because that's all that's needed.

However:

1) Every major team is on nat'l TV now for pretty much any conference game and semi-decent OOC game. Maybe it's cable or (on occasion) a streaming service, but any big recruiting or exposure advantage that once possibly existed for ND from NBC in the 90s is long, long gone now. Nobody besides diehard ND fans are watching the aforementioned ND-Ball St game, and any bigger ND game would be on nat'l TV now regardless if ND had the NBC contract or not.

2) ND makes "only" $67M annually from NBC and (non-football) ACC deals combined. The B1G schools average $76.1M from their current deal. The SEC schools average $72.4M annually.

3) NBC doesn't have a contract with the CFP, unlike ESPN/ABC (home of the SEC). I don't even know the name of NBC's pregame show, but it's nowhere near as prominent as College Gameday (or even Big Noon). NBCSN is nowhere near the behemoth in influence as ESPN (let alone FS1); NBC doesn't have Stephen A. or McAfee or Finebaum. On the plus side, sure, it's nice having an ND football commercial air during SNF. But if a network/company were able to have undue influence, it'd be Disney, not NBC.

4) Even back in those early ND-NBC days, when the broadcasting world was way different, the deal didn't help ND get voted the champion in 1993 over FSU, despite the same record and ND owning the H2H win. Fast forward all the way to 2025, NBC didn't help get ND into the CFP. So if NBC has been attempting to "prop up" ND over the years, then it's done a really poor job.

-

That's enough about NBC specifically. More to the point of the thread, I think you're conflating the overall media coverage of ND with being "overrated" in the preseason poll. We have the data in this thread that shows ND is not close to the most overrated. ND is always talked about every year, but that's not the same thing as being predicted to do anything big by pundits, nor being ranked high in the preseason AP poll every year. Some years it's like that, but not every year. If that's the case, ND usually finishes near that high preseason ballpark, with a few exceptions (e.g., 2016 and 2022).

This year, ND is a legitimate championship contender, and the #4 preseason ranking is fair based on the combination of last season's results, amount of returning production and portal/recruiting supplementation.
Posted by hsgeoboy
Member since Aug 2017
1195 posts
Posted on 8/19/26 at 7:44 am to
And that’s the whole point. ND deserves their #4 ranking this year. Regardless of schedule. They’ve got talent, as we saw last year, and most of it has come back. They’re well coached. And recently, they’ve performed about as well as predicted at the start of the season. There’s no reason to think they won’t contend for a title, even if they did have a stronger schedule.
Posted by GentleJackJones
Member since Mar 2019
5279 posts
Posted on 8/19/26 at 10:56 am to
quote:

This year, ND is a legitimate championship contender, and the #4 preseason ranking is fair based on the combination of last season's results, amount of returning production and portal/recruiting supplementation.


I agree, in part. I think the preseason ranking is justified. I also think they're playoff worthy, which, on its face, I guess is a "legitimate" championship "contender." I think they go 12-0 or 11-1 (with a loss to Miami).

I'm still...I don't know....I'm still just a little doubtful. I think they can potentially have an elite defense. I don't trust their DC at all, however. They looked rough their first few games. An ND fan will say that "it was early on and in September" or "they were working the kinks out and were playing at an elite level the latter part of the season." Conversely, one can say that those were against ND's two best opponents (Miami and A&M) and the defense was downright bad (mediocre at best). Stonewalling Syracuse, Pitt, and BC just doesn't carry much weight for me.

In regard to the offense, we all know Denbrock can scheme some great things up. I trust Carr to be improved and a top QB in the NCAA. I just see a lot of offensive production loss in Love, Price, the transfer WR from Virgina. They've got a lot of unproven talent having to replace a lot of proven talent. I've heard it all the time with LSU trying to replace certain guys (Fournette, Guice, Chase, Jefferson), "our backfield is loaded!" or "wait till you see these new guys come in, John Doe is a 6-5 5-star WR!" and they don't pan out. I'm just skeptical. I think Love and Price carried more of that offense last year than ND fans realize. Or, alternatively, I think their presence on the field made ND's passing game much easier on Carr than ND fans realize. It'll even out this year and maybe their replacements are great, I don't know. Until I actually see it, I just can't see anything other than a step back in talent and production.
This post was edited on 8/19/26 at 10:58 am
Posted by KiwiHead
Auckland, NZ
Member since Jul 2014
38589 posts
Posted on 8/19/26 at 11:25 am to
LSU suffers from an inferiority complex....no matter what. Win 3 NCs in 16 years in 4 trips.....and we have to constantly look for validation from the outside that we are an elite program and then go off and prove that maybe we aren't as elite as we hoped we could be.
Posted by bayoujd
Member since Jan 2009
3137 posts
Posted on 8/19/26 at 11:33 am to
When your coaches have been Brian Kelly, Charlie Weis, and Ty Willingham, you tend to be overrated. That's a bad group right there.

No surprise here - Kelly's LSU teams underperformed too.

Freeman is on a different level than those clowns so ND has been far better and more competitive. This year's team is deep. Plus the schedule is weak.
Posted by bayoujd
Member since Jan 2009
3137 posts
Posted on 8/19/26 at 11:40 am to
quote:


Kelly did what Freeman did at ND


Kelly won the Orange Bowl?
Kelly won the Sugar Bowl against the SEC champion?

Please point me to a major bowl that Kelly won.

I'll wait patiently.

Posted by ronricks
Member since Mar 2021
13343 posts
Posted on 8/19/26 at 5:18 pm to
Since 1988 the last time Notre Dame won a championship LSU has three national championships (with three different head coaches) and six SEC Championships. This is no comparison. One produces one doesn’t.

Notre Dame fans are stuck in 1977 and it’s pitiful they don’t realize how irrelevant they are.
Posted by lionward2014
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2015
14576 posts
Posted on 8/19/26 at 5:26 pm to
quote:

it’s pitiful they don’t realize how irrelevant they are.


Says the person responding to a thread started by a non-ND fan on an LSU message board when the two aren’t playing each other. Oh sweet irony.
Posted by paulb52
Member since Dec 2019
9074 posts
Posted on 8/19/26 at 5:28 pm to
They both are always overrated at beginning of season,
Posted by Sun God
Member since Jul 2009
52919 posts
Posted on 8/19/26 at 5:44 pm to
Kelly got just as close to a natty as Freeman

Cool he won some bowl games

I remember thinking it was kickass when LSU won the Sugar Bowl in 2001

ETA: I will be the first to eat crow if ND wins a national championship
This post was edited on 8/19/26 at 5:48 pm
Posted by ronricks
Member since Mar 2021
13343 posts
Posted on 8/19/26 at 6:51 pm to
quote:

Says the person

Says the person writing five paragraph essay type posts on an “LSU message forum” about a program that hasn’t won a national championship since 1988 that by being an Independent is essentially like running a 1975 business model in 2026. Keep in mind all this is with being given extremely favorable circumstances and special treatment compared to programs like LSU that are in conferences and can’t handpick charmin soft schedules every year.
Posted by Buckeye Fan 19
Member since Dec 2007
36761 posts
Posted on 8/19/26 at 8:08 pm to
quote:

I think they can potentially have an elite defense. I don't trust their DC at all, however. They looked rough their first few games. An ND fan will say that "it was early on and in September" or "they were working the kinks out and were playing at an elite level the latter part of the season." Conversely, one can say that those were against ND's two best opponents (Miami and A&M) and the defense was downright bad (mediocre at best). Stonewalling Syracuse, Pitt, and BC just doesn't carry much weight for me.


Understand, and yes, your quotes are my thoughts. First, I think the "bad" performance against Miami is a little overblown. They struggled for a stretch in the 2nd/3rd quarter, but overall, they held Miami to fewer yds/play, yds/pass and yds/rush than both Ole Miss and Indiana did, fewer yds/rush than OSU did, and even to fewer yds/rush and yds/play than A&M did. And unlike all 4 of those teams, ND entered that game without much prior knowledge of Malachi Toney. (Leonard Moore did not cover him. Leonard Moore will move to the slot to cover him in November.)

But yeah, the D was absolutely terrible against A&M. But I'd note it was also terrible the next week (particularly the first half) against Purdue. That sounds like a weird comment to make, but the point is if they were terrible against A&M and then shut out Purdue, then it's simply an opponent thing. But I think there were major schematic and/or personnel flaws that were corrected during/after Purdue before Arkansas.

They performed well thereafter against two pretty good offenses in Arkansas (complete mess of a defense/team... but not a mess of an offense) and USC (mediocre defense/team... but not a mediocre offense) and were dominant defensively against every other opponent (no, not murderer's row). I just think there's way too much talent to not be an elite defense, and Ash is much more knowledgeable of / comfortable with his players and the college game now than at the beginning of last season (he hadn't coached in college since 2020 prior to last season).

quote:

I just see a lot of offensive production loss in Love, Price, the transfer WR from Virgina. They've got a lot of unproven talent having to replace a lot of proven talent.


I'm much more concerned about this than the defense. I think ND has a lot of good (non-QB) skill players, but I'm not sure if there are any great ones. I think there are a lot of possible #2/#3 WRs, but don't know if there are any true #1s. I think Williams will be a really good college RB, but he doesn't have the game-breaking ability that even Price did, let alone Love. Do they have a "trump card" skill player to bail them out when needed? I'm not sure...

My thought is with Carr (who I expect to solidify himself as a first-round pick) and a talented OL (which also has a few unknowns / first-time starters, but I expect to gel into a very strong unit by mid-season) the skill position players will still be good/deep enough that the offense, when coupled with an elite defense, will have ND right up there at the end of the year. But would be a nice bonus if at least one skill player (either a perceived "top" guy like Williams or Faison, or someone young/unexpected) breaks out into a true alpha/star.

Anyway, as I said in that other ridiculously long ND thread, it's not just that I think 2026 ND has better talent and better coaching than any point in at least the past 30 years, but also the top team(s) are no longer as dominant. Wouldn't shock me if any of OSU, Oregon, Miami, UGA, Texas, ND or IU are standing on the podium at the end of the year. But no matter who it ends up being, wouldn't feel optimistic for any of them against 2018 Clemson or 2019 LSU or 2020 Bama or 2022 UGA. Just a different world now in cfb with the portal and NIL.
Posted by Pedropatterstine
Member since Aug 2026
221 posts
Posted on 8/19/26 at 8:18 pm to
LOL


They are predicted to do well every year because they play a pathetic schedule every year. Usually they play pretty decent teams and a couple teams like an arkansas or something.....but this year, oh boy, they play Miami and that is it, syracuse is probably their second toughest game.

They perform well usually based upon their schedule. They would not have NEAR the finishes they have had if they were in the SEC, that's a fact. They haven't won a Title since 1988. LOL
Posted by Pedropatterstine
Member since Aug 2026
221 posts
Posted on 8/19/26 at 8:21 pm to
LOL

They lost to the only two teams they played last year, one at home. They haven't won a Title since 1988. Spare us all the other bs, since you are a fan and can't be objective. We measure success by Titles....apparently you measure it by rankings when playing weak schedules. BTW, this year is an absolute joke. Your next best team behind Miami is Syracuse. LOL. In contrast, LSU play 4 of the top 11 I believe, maybe 5...then Tenn and Clemson on top of that.
Posted by CatfishJohn
Member since Jun 2020
22331 posts
Posted on 8/19/26 at 8:43 pm to
LSU would’ve ended the year a lot higher most years with their schedule
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
178363 posts
Posted on 8/20/26 at 7:57 am to
LSU actually wins national championships. Notre Dame has no results to support being overhyped every August.
Posted by sms151t
Polos, Porsches, Ponies..PROBATION
Member since Aug 2009
141003 posts
Posted on 8/20/26 at 7:59 am to
Never mind, this is the I am jealous of Notre Dame annual thread.
Posted by BengalShark
Member since Jul 2017
4527 posts
Posted on 8/20/26 at 8:36 am to
quote:

Is ND really any more overrated than LSU?


ND hasn’t won a natty since 1988 yet media acts like they are up to par with the juggernauts and could absolutely win it.

LSU has won 3 this century (2003, 2007, 2019)

When LSU is in natty ppl think they have a chance to win…

When ND is in natty… well… no one thinks they’re going win and the two that ND were in this century proved them right….
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