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re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:04 pm to chalmetteowl
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:04 pm to chalmetteowl
How do you not realize that makes no GD sense? 
1
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:06 pm to Roger Klarvin
Show the decades of data
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:06 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
How do you not realize that makes no GD sense?
What doesn’t make sense? If you have one possession left most likely, you don’t risk going down by 2 possessions. If you have like 3 or 4 left, it’s different
Y’all are saying y’all go for 2 to have information. Information just doesn’t help when you don’t have the time
This post was edited on 9/21/20 at 10:09 pm
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:07 pm to chalmetteowl
quote:This makes no sense... at all.
If you have one possession left most likely, you don’t risk going down by 2 possessions
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:09 pm to shel311
quote:it makes plenty of sense to me
you have one possession left most likely, you don’t risk going down by 2 possessions
This makes no sense... at all.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:11 pm to chalmetteowl
quote:If you have 1 possession left, then it really doesn't matter when you go for 2. That's not even the scenario being discussed here.
it makes plenty of sense to me
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:11 pm to shel311
I mean, with little time left down 8, it affects the opponents ability and will just to run out the clock v being down 9.
It isn't nearly as open and shut as you are acting.
It isn't nearly as open and shut as you are acting.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:11 pm to chalmetteowl
I see what they're saying and it does make good sense but if you only have two possessions left and that's absolutely it, it doesn't matter if you go for two the first or second time.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:12 pm to cubsfan5150
quote:It affects the play calling for both teams being in a theoretical one possession game.
it doesn't matter if you go for two the first or second time.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:14 pm to WDE24
quote:How does it affect their ability?
I mean, with little time left down 8, it affects the opponents ability and will just to run out the clock v being down 9.
If there's little time left, they're going to milk as much clock possible whether down 8 or 9.
Again, very little time left and only 1 possession left is really not what has been discussed for 2 pages now.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:14 pm to WDE24
How?
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:16 pm to shel311
quote:If they are up 9, they know they can milk the clock in two possessions and still win without risk of the other team taking the lead or tying the game. If they are up 8, they know they have to get first downs or they have to give the ball back to a team with a chance to tie the game.
If there's little time left, they're going to milk as much clock possible whether down 8 or 9.
This post was edited on 9/21/20 at 10:17 pm
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:17 pm to shel311
quote:I’m even agreeing that you should want more information until there is very little time left
Again, very little time left and only 1 possession left is really not what has been discussed for 2 pages now.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:23 pm to cubsfan5150
quote:I'm on the OP's side here, but the more people that keep posting this and the OP continues to reply to other posts but doesn't supply this data, the more posters will question if this data does exist.
Show the decades of data
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:41 pm to Roger Klarvin
Completely depends on situation, mostly where the clock is. If you are down two scores with only enough time to reasonably score twice, there is no reason to take yourself out of it before the second TD.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:48 pm to Roger Klarvin
Ha ha....
“So you know what you need”
If you’re down by 35 points you “KNOW” you need 36. Doesn’t do a thing to help you win.
Sorry, but being down 8 with ten minutes to go, five minutes to go, two minutes to go or 55 seconds is better than being down by nine. Perid!
If you’re down 8 and score a TD, then make the two point conversion, you’re tied. That’s the good outcome
If your miss the two point conversion, you’re down 2. That’s the bad outcome
If you’re down 9 and score a TD, you kick the PAT and you’re down 2
There is no chance for a “good” outcome being down by nine.
“So you know what you need”
If you’re down by 35 points you “KNOW” you need 36. Doesn’t do a thing to help you win.
Sorry, but being down 8 with ten minutes to go, five minutes to go, two minutes to go or 55 seconds is better than being down by nine. Perid!
If you’re down 8 and score a TD, then make the two point conversion, you’re tied. That’s the good outcome
If your miss the two point conversion, you’re down 2. That’s the bad outcome
If you’re down 9 and score a TD, you kick the PAT and you’re down 2
There is no chance for a “good” outcome being down by nine.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:52 pm to lsusa
quote:Oh, now we're assuming the coach should KNOW he's not going to make the 2pt conversion if he goes for it the 1st time?
Sorry, but being down 8 with ten minutes to go, five minutes to go, two minutes to go or 55 seconds is better than being down by nine. Perid!
Guess what, being down 7 ith ten minutes to go, five minutes to go, two minutes to go or 55 seconds is better than being down by nine. Period! So...now what?
quote:If you're down 7 and scored a TD, then you kick an extra point and tie it up, what's your point?
If you’re down 8 and score a TD, then make the two point conversion, you’re tied. That’s the good outcome
quote:What chance is there for a good outcome when you miss the 2pt conversion down 2?
There is no chance for a “good” outcome being down by nine.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 11:02 pm to Roger Klarvin
Roger, I am no fan of yours...but you get an upvote for this one. The announcers were quick to point out how it is bad. I think it’s the right call. I understand the opposing view and the ‘extending the game’ logic, but I prefer the way McCarthy handled it. You need 15 points. I say go for it early. If you miss, you have X minutes to get 9 points. That means you hurry your arse up to get the next TD.
If you make the PAT, great. Now you’re down 8. You take your time on that final drive, playing for OT at best. But forcing OT down 7 is a bit easier than down 8.
If you make the PAT, great. Now you’re down 8. You take your time on that final drive, playing for OT at best. But forcing OT down 7 is a bit easier than down 8.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 11:06 pm to lsusa
quote:
If you’re down by 35 points you “KNOW” you need 36. Doesn’t do a thing to help you win.
This is irrelevant to the discussion.
quote:
Sorry, but being down 8 with ten minutes to go, five minutes to go, two minutes to go or 55 seconds is better than being down by nine. Perid!
There’s a slight difference in the scenario with the time on the clock in those situations.
quote:
There is no chance for a “good” outcome being down by nine.
Technically there is, and the Cowboys showed you what it was.
If you’re down 15...here are your options after getting the first TD.
1. Go for 2 and make it (now down 7)
2. Go for 2 and miss (now down 9)
3. Kick PAT and make (now down 8)
4. Kick PAT and miss (now down 9)
You are saying you want to kick, and hope for the third outcome. I am willing to bet that going for 2 and getting the second outcome gives you a much greater win probability than kicking.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 11:08 pm to shel311
quote:
I'm on the OP's side here, but the more people that keep posting this and the OP continues to reply to other posts but doesn't supply this data, the more posters will question if this data does exist.
I went ahead and googled it to see if I can find something. 538 article is the best I can find so far. Link.
Pretty Extensive, so I am not going to read it tonight
, but I'll check it tomorrow LINK /
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